2025-2026 ENSO

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

That Midwest warmth in March 2012 was more historic than the cold in 2015 was. The few months with -10 or more departures the CONUS since 2015 have been few and far between compared to the months over +10. This is a CONUS wide phenomenon and not just limited to one region. You can see how getting a +10 month nearly every winter since the 2015 higher temperature reset has become the norm while extreme cold is very isolated to places like Montana. Plus our Arctic outbreaks have shrunk the geographic footprint. So an Arctic outbreak into the Plains doesn’t extend all the way to the coast like it did as recently as the 1990s. 
 

 

Dec…2015….NYC….+13.3

JAN…2017….BTV…..+11.0

FEB….2017….ORD….+10.3

FEB…..2018…ATL….+10.6

FEB….2019…MGM….+10.5

JAN….2020…YAM….+9.8

DEC….2021….DFW….+13.2

JAN….2023….DXR….+12.3

FEB….2023…..SSI…..+9.8

DEC….2023….INL…..+15.8

FEB…..2024….FAR…..+17.5

DEC….2024…..LND…..+11.3

But if -10 arctic outbreaks that lasted an entire month are few and far between wouldn't that make the -10 monthly departure at NYC in February 2015 even more historic?

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

2010 to 2018 wasn’t natural variability since the reason the snow increased was due to the warmer atmosphere holding more moisture while the storm tracks remained cold. 
 

 

It was only really 2010 to about 2015/16. After the January 2016 storm, those tracks pretty much stopped. And even then, we had a 2-year period with record low snow (namely 2011-12 and 2012-13) in the middle of all this. So, it was really only about 4 or 5 seasons that really skew the average.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I find it ironic he stated that snowfall has dropped since 1989-90 when the late 80s and early 90s were historically horrible for snowfall here!

 

That isn't the case up here....IDK about the mid Atlantic.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The research shows that +QBO in combination with -ENSO supports poleward Aleutian ridging and a cold stratosphere during the cold months. On the opposite side, -QBO/-ENSO supports a flat/equatorial Aleutian ridge and a warm stratosphere during the cold months

I think its more about the orientation of the cool ENSO event than it is the QBO.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, bluewave said:

2010 to 2018 wasn’t natural variability since the reason the snow increased was due to the warmer atmosphere holding more moisture while the storm tracks remained cold. 
 

 

Yea, he is the first person I have ever seen argue against the idea that a warmer climate has more moisture available...irregardless of the degree of warming cancelling that out.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

But if -10 arctic outbreaks that lasted an entire month are few and far between wouldn't that make the -10 monthly departure at NYC in February 2015 even more historic?

 

The thing about the -10, -15 temperature departures in the Eastern US in February 2015 is that it was balanced out by similar positive temperature departures in the Western US: 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The thing about the -10, -15 temperature departures in the Eastern US in February 2015 is that it was balanced out by similar positive temperature departures in the Western US: 

Was March 2012 heat balanced out by a cold spell somewhere else?

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, he is the first person I have ever seen argue against the idea that a warmer climate has more moisture available...irregardless of the degree of warming cancelling that out.

He thinks the data on very hot summers of the past is fraudulent.  

He said 1993 wasn't that hot and the weather stations had a hot bias with any data from 1995 and prior.

I lived through 1993, I knew exactly how hot it was lol.