2025-2026 ENSO

[Spartman]

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I’m starting to wonder if we see a weak La Niña develop. I’ve been saying cold-neutral and I still think that’s the favored outcome but the door seems to be opening for a possible weak Nina to develop this summer/fall. It appears a strong -IOD is taking shape, that, along with a continued -PDO, -PMM and the surface/subsurface/trade wind/SOI trends are seemingly opening the door for a possible weak Niña
 

 

 

 

 

Might as well

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Really nice cold 500mb +NAO for the next 7 days. That's what I want to see more of through the late Spring/Summer to have more -EPO next Winter. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

19 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

-PDO has been steadily weakning...not saying that will defiinitely continue, but I feel like the trend of the PDO is more highly correlated to the weather pattern than the index itself. Maybe someone like @Stormchaserchuck1 can chime in on that, but I feel like the PDO is a bit lagged from the atmosphere.

I think it's more after the fact. Now, I think in a long term PDO phase, the subsurface moves to the state, and the thermocline does have impact on the H5 pattern (subsurface takes longer to change, longer to move back). However, that didn't work out so good last Winter, when we were coming off of a record 4-year -PDO period and the +PNA was mostly present. Since November, the only strong Aleutian High pattern that we have seen was Jan 15 - Feb 10. Just 1 example. A shift has generally occurred. It will be interesting to see how that progresses in the Summer. The PDO doesn't have real high year-to-year correlations believe it or not, and even +several months its correlation wanes. A lot of the high-correlation-PDO composites that you see are because the PNA impacts it in now-time. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Really nice cold 500mb +NAO for the next 7 days. That's what I want to see more of through the late Spring/Summer to have more -EPO next Winter. 

The WPO and the NAO were the main issue last season....EPO/PNA supplied seasonal cold, but major storms still either tracked inland, or failed to phase because the PNA ridge would get throttled. Only time the NAO played ball in January it ended up a suppressive detriment.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The WPO and the NAO were the main issue last season....EPO/PNA supplied seasonal cold, but major storms still either tracked inland, or failed to phase because the PNA ridge would get throttled. Only time the NAO played ball in January it ended up a suppressive detriment.

pretty good assessment here overall, yup.

I mean I like to deeper dive into why these larger identified resonances behaved the way they did, but just as a step back recognition, agreed.