Interior NW & NE Burbs 2025

[gravitylover]

8* with a spotty crusty coating. The only place it isn't spotty is our front steps, they'll probably be icy for weeks now.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

It got to 8 this morning. Still holding onto a 2 inch snowpack embedded with a topping of sleet and ice. 4 days and counting. 

[Hitman]

Nice solid dusting overnight.  Pleasant surprise.  28f

[MANDA]

Picked up .20" snowfall overnight.  Melted total .02".

Looks festive while it lasts.  I am on a nickle and dime ride to 1" for the season.  Currently .7".

[eduggs]

Most models have a little bit of snow on Wednesday for approx. I-84 north, favoring elevation and especially latitude. This has been trending slightly colder for several days. I think it will be tough to accumulate much with a surface low near Lake Ontario... but considering Tue night is likely to be fairly cold, if precipitation comes in a quick burst I think there could be some minor accumulations before the boundary layer quickly warms.

A slight model shift colder would help, but guidance has been very consistent curling up this shortwave west of us.

[eduggs]

NAM, HRRR (end of run), GFS, ECM are all pretty cold (and a little snowy) for Wed morning NWNJ and I-84 area. The Canadian and RRFS are a little warmer and pivot the steadier precipitation a little north of the area until the boundary layer warms. I'd like to see this evolve into a 1-2" deal for Sussex, Orange, Putnam with flakes (coating?) or sleet into northern Morris, Passaic, Rockland, Westchester.

[eduggs]

12z NAM (12km) is a little less snowy then 6z. But the 3km is still pretty cold. It has brief snow to ZR and back to snow. I'm not sure I buy that scenario. This looks more like frozen to rain to cold/dry with flurries to me.

Either way... interesting solution. As modeled, the 3km NAM is cold enough for travel impacts N&W of NYC. I'm skeptical since surface temps tend to overperform warm with a SLP to our northwest. But other guidance is pretty cold too... so we'll see.

[IrishRob17]

4 will do it for the low here. Sucks to see that warm up heading out way next week. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

50 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

4 will do it for the low here. Sucks to see that warm up heading out way next week. 

I don't see a high temp above 36 for the next 14 days on my weather apps. Haven't looked at any new model runs today.
 

Is this something some of the model runs are showing not showing up in the apps yet or are you mocking the warm mongers among us?

[eduggs]

The 12z NAM family has an advisory snowfall for NW burbs (Sussex, N. Morris, Orange, Putnam) probably above 300ft or so. But there's no support from the other meso models. The NAM also keeps it going for longer. Other models are warmer and shorter duration. I'd sell the snowier outcome for now but keep an eye on the mesos tonight. The airmass is cold but the southerly flow will warm things quickly tomorrow. The multi-day trend of a higher amplitude trof has delayed the onset and pushed the initial overrunning well north of us. That hurts wintry chances outside of hill towns.

[IrishRob17]

3 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I don't see a high temp above 36 for the next 14 days on my weather apps. Haven't looked at any new model runs today.
 

Is this something some of the model runs are showing not showing up in the apps yet or are you mocking the warm mongers among us?

I'm looking at the models and they've been showing above normal temps around the weekend before Christmas going into Christmas week. Its way out there, can and will change so lets hope for the best.

[ForestHillWx]

Long way out, though a warm up is likely; can’t expect to have multiple -10 days in perpetuity. 

[rclab]

2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

I'm looking at the models and they've been showing above normal temps around the weekend before Christmas going into Christmas week. Its way out there, can and will change so lets hope for the best.

 

2 hours ago, ForestHillWx said:

Long way out, though a warm up is likely; can’t expect to have multiple -10 days in perpetuity. 

My ocean hugging coastal plain location can expect the top photos likelihood. I feel sure that the good folk of the NW & NE burbs thread will be blessed as the second photo indicates. Either way peace and joy will prevail. As always……

[IrishRob17]

29/23, hoping that light precip just to my west makes it in here as frozen. 50s on Christmas Eve and a cold rain on Christmas Day, a true holiday of yore being projected at this point.   

 

[gravitylover]

I kinda like really warm Christmas's. Everything is closed and there's nothing to do so I've gotten used to going for a nice quiet mt bike ride.

[eduggs]

Looks like a burst of rain and snow coming... probably elevationally dependent.  Bright banding evident on radar.

[NorthShoreWx]

I'm heading up to Kingston for an event this evening.  I assume the thruway will be no worse than wet.  Any intelligence to the contrary?

[Hitman]

5 hours ago, gravitylover said:

I kinda like really warm Christmas's. Everything is closed and there's nothing to do so I've gotten used to going for a nice quiet mt bike ride.

bah humbug!  there's skiing to do

[gravitylover]

44 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

I'm heading up to Kingston for an event this evening.  I assume the thruway will be no worse than wet.  Any intelligence to the contrary?

Sorry. No intelligence here.

@Hitman ok, warm south of 84. Good?

[IrishRob17]

2 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

I'm heading up to Kingston for an event this evening.  I assume the thruway will be no worse than wet.  Any intelligence to the contrary?

It's sounds like traffic is moving fine on 84 ( I can hear it from my house) and on Google Maps most major roads are still green around here. That said, a winter wonderland in my yard, snow sticking to everything with .8 on the board so far in light snow 34/30. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

33.1 with moderate snow.

A nice refresher for the 9 day old snowpack. If you can call 2 inches a snowpack.

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

It's sounds like traffic is moving fine on 84 ( I can hear it from my house) and on Google Maps most major roads are still green around here. That said, a winter wonderland in my yard, snow sticking to everything with .8 on the board so far in light snow 34/30. 

I'm at the reststop a few miles north of 84 on the Thruway.  A little slush in the parking lot, but highway still wet.  Nice to see it snowing though.  Saw a little white rain mix not too many miles west of the river, then to very wet snow north of Suffern.  Snowing nice here and close to freezing.  It went from 50 in lower Westchester to 43 at the TZ.  This would have been a fun ride without the traffic in the Bronx and lower WC.

[eduggs]

The HRRR was a few degrees too warm in Orange and Putnam. A coating of snow down to nearly river level with accumulations increasingly quickly with elevation. Turned into a snowy evening with snow mixing in at 500ft in Morris County right now. The less snowy NAM runs appeared to do better than the HRRR or RGEM which showed mostly rain until well NW. Actually the ECMWF and GFS did pretty good with the lower level temp profile too I think.