Interior NW & NE Burbs 2025

[gravitylover]

8* with a spotty crusty coating. The only place it isn't spotty is our front steps, they'll probably be icy for weeks now.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

It got to 8 this morning. Still holding onto a 2 inch snowpack embedded with a topping of sleet and ice. 4 days and counting. 

[Hitman]

Nice solid dusting overnight.  Pleasant surprise.  28f

[MANDA]

Picked up .20" snowfall overnight.  Melted total .02".

Looks festive while it lasts.  I am on a nickle and dime ride to 1" for the season.  Currently .7".

[eduggs]

Most models have a little bit of snow on Wednesday for approx. I-84 north, favoring elevation and especially latitude. This has been trending slightly colder for several days. I think it will be tough to accumulate much with a surface low near Lake Ontario... but considering Tue night is likely to be fairly cold, if precipitation comes in a quick burst I think there could be some minor accumulations before the boundary layer quickly warms.

A slight model shift colder would help, but guidance has been very consistent curling up this shortwave west of us.

[eduggs]

NAM, HRRR (end of run), GFS, ECM are all pretty cold (and a little snowy) for Wed morning NWNJ and I-84 area. The Canadian and RRFS are a little warmer and pivot the steadier precipitation a little north of the area until the boundary layer warms. I'd like to see this evolve into a 1-2" deal for Sussex, Orange, Putnam with flakes (coating?) or sleet into northern Morris, Passaic, Rockland, Westchester.

[eduggs]

12z NAM (12km) is a little less snowy then 6z. But the 3km is still pretty cold. It has brief snow to ZR and back to snow. I'm not sure I buy that scenario. This looks more like frozen to rain to cold/dry with flurries to me.

Either way... interesting solution. As modeled, the 3km NAM is cold enough for travel impacts N&W of NYC. I'm skeptical since surface temps tend to overperform warm with a SLP to our northwest. But other guidance is pretty cold too... so we'll see.

[IrishRob17]

4 will do it for the low here. Sucks to see that warm up heading out way next week. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

50 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

4 will do it for the low here. Sucks to see that warm up heading out way next week. 

I don't see a high temp above 36 for the next 14 days on my weather apps. Haven't looked at any new model runs today.
 

Is this something some of the model runs are showing not showing up in the apps yet or are you mocking the warm mongers among us?

[eduggs]

The 12z NAM family has an advisory snowfall for NW burbs (Sussex, N. Morris, Orange, Putnam) probably above 300ft or so. But there's no support from the other meso models. The NAM also keeps it going for longer. Other models are warmer and shorter duration. I'd sell the snowier outcome for now but keep an eye on the mesos tonight. The airmass is cold but the southerly flow will warm things quickly tomorrow. The multi-day trend of a higher amplitude trof has delayed the onset and pushed the initial overrunning well north of us. That hurts wintry chances outside of hill towns.

[IrishRob17]

3 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I don't see a high temp above 36 for the next 14 days on my weather apps. Haven't looked at any new model runs today.
 

Is this something some of the model runs are showing not showing up in the apps yet or are you mocking the warm mongers among us?

I'm looking at the models and they've been showing above normal temps around the weekend before Christmas going into Christmas week. Its way out there, can and will change so lets hope for the best.

[ForestHillWx]

Long way out, though a warm up is likely; can’t expect to have multiple -10 days in perpetuity.