Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[wncsnow]

22 hours ago, wncsnow said:

I think the next really interesting time period is from Jan 7-12. If we can keep that -NAO we might have a real shot then. 

 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[cbmclean]

4 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Man that's ugly.  Interestingly, not as much of an upward trend as i was expecting.  Also, what the heck was going on in 1983?  I was two at the time so had no memory.

[tarheelwx]

Massive arctic front moved through Greensboro Christmas eve during the day.  Temps dropping into the single digits Christmas eve night.  Greensboro had a high of 18 on Christmas day and a low of 1.  Dec ended 6 below normal with a trace of snow, but ice on the 21st. 

 

TW

[chris21]

11 hours ago, scottk said:

I’m looking to rent a cabin somewhere in the NC mountains for New Year’s Eve through the weekend…

Where’s the best chance for snow?  Or where’s the best place for me to ask this question? Lol

Can’t guarantee snow but your best bet will be in the Northern Mountains at 3500 feet or above… ideally in Avery or Watauga (or Wolf Laurel). I think Sugar, Beech or Wolf are your best bets.

[BooneWX]

56 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

 

You indeed called the potential early on. I hope McDowell gets 20”.

[wncsnow]

I hope the entire forum gets snow

[BooneWX]

Overrated torch and Friday is trending towards 40s.


.

[wncsnow]

7 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Overrated torch and Friday is trending towards 40s.


.

CAD is hard to predict 

[cbmclean]

31 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I hope the entire forum gets snow

I'm honestly rooting for Charlotte and the foot hills second after MBY.  I know it's been a rough stretch and I know that last year watching the coastal plain (and Gulf Coast for that matter) must have rubbed salt in the wounds.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

22 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

CAD is hard to predict 

But even last week, many here warned that sneaky CAD may pull the rug out of any torch 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[BooneWX]

3 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

lol. Weather can humble even the most arrogant folks. 

[Met1985]

Looks like we get multiple fronts coming through after Christmas now and more pronounced. 

[metalicwx367]

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

I hope the entire forum gets snow

Things could always be worse. You could live in Alaska and not receive any snowfall for the entire month in what is normally your snowiest month. 

[wncsnow]

Just now, metalicwx367 said:

Things could always be worse. You could live in Alaska and not receive any snowfall for the entire month in what is normally your snowiest month. 

That's wild, hopefully it makes up for lost time soon. 

[wncsnow]

31 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

But even last week, many here warned that sneaky CAD may pull the rug out of any torch 

Its one crazy backdoor front. 70s to 40s back to 70s in 72 hours. 

[cbmclean]

16 minutes ago, metalicwx367 said:

Things could always be worse. You could live in Alaska and not receive any snowfall for the entire month in what is normally your snowiest month. 

"Alaska" is a pretty broad location; whereabouts are you?  Has it been noticeably warm, or dry or both?

[cbmclean]

15 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Its one crazy backdoor front. 70s to 40s back to 70s in 72 hours. 

I can't remember which year it was, one of those snowless years in the 1990's, but I remember one day with highs in the 70's, the next day was in the 30's, then the day after back in the 70's.  I even remember there being a political cartoon in the paper referencing it.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

As others have noted, Ensembles aren't picking up on these cold drops happening in the long range . The key is the historic cold in Canada .

[BooneWX]

Just now, WinstonSalemArlington said:

As others have noted, Ensembles aren't picking up on these cold drops happening in the long range . The key is the historic cold in Canada .

Euro op, the ai ops and to a degree, even the gfs picked up on it before the ensembles. Quite jarring to see.

[wncsnow]

Today's GFS run is quite mild long range FWIW

[metalicwx367]

15 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

"Alaska" is a pretty broad location; whereabouts are you?  Has it been noticeably warm, or dry or both?

Northeast Anchorage. It's been exceptionally cold and dry this month. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[Met1985]

Euro with two back to back very strong fronts coming in after Christmas now. 

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

Today's GFS run is quite mild long range FWIW

Live by the ops, die by the ops.  You didn't think we were going to get a nice uncomplicated cold pattern did you?

[wncsnow]

40 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Live by the ops, die by the ops.  You didn't think we were going to get a nice uncomplicated cold pattern did you?

The op runs and ensembles from the Euro and GFS werent cold past day 7/8 today. It will probably show something different tonight. 

[BooneWX]

9 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The op runs and ensembles from the Euro and GFS werent cold past day 7/8 today. It will probably show something different tonight. 

That would align with the MJO progression 

[cbmclean]

19 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The op runs and ensembles from the Euro and GFS werent cold past day 7/8 today. It will probably show something different tonight. 

Believe me, I have no doubt we could go right back into the oven.  I'm more just reminding myself that even though Ops seemed to catch on to the pattern improvement, I can't just ignore them if they show warmth.