BooneWX Posted Tuesday at 08:09 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:09 PM 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: I just hope we start seeing legit signs of something better in January before January turns into February Yep. Not panicking yet, but if we haven’t moved that Aleutian Ridge by week 2 in Jan, I’ll get really bearish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Tuesday at 08:27 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:27 PM . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Tuesday at 08:32 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 08:32 PM 5 minutes ago, BooneWX said: . It will be quite the spectacle to see what wins out. The raging Pacific or growing -AO/-NAO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Tuesday at 09:02 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:02 PM 54 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Selfishly, I spend most of my time here and would love to get our former forum stalwarts back to posting on AmericanWx. We’ve segmented more the last few years by region since many have dropped off and I think that’s only enhanced discussions. Southern is an OK forum, I post occasionally, but I cannot stand the look and feel of the site. It’s brutal to me. There are good posters there and a lot of folks who post in both but I too wish we could get some back who’ve left here. It’s quite the spectacle to go over there if Raleigh is getting screwed by a storm. If you think the Raleigh folks here are bad it’s even worse there. They have a lot of Charlotte posters too which I appreciate as someone who lived there for a long time after college 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted Tuesday at 09:30 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:30 PM 25 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Southern is an OK forum, I post occasionally, but I cannot stand the look and feel of the site. It’s brutal to me. There are good posters there and a lot of folks who post in both but I too wish we could get some back who’ve left here. It’s quite the spectacle to go over there if Raleigh is getting screwed by a storm. If you think the Raleigh folks here are bad it’s even worse there. They have a lot of Charlotte posters too which I appreciate as someone who lived there for a long time after college I realize I used to be real awful at times. Somehow after the 3 years of zeroing out I have chilled out a lot more lol. As for he upcoming pattern I know it sucks to warm up during Christmas but we know the cold can't hang on around here for the entire winter. If we can flip back for January that would be fine with me to get back in the game and hopefully real one in south of Virginia for once. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted yesterday at 04:43 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:43 AM 9 hours ago, Tullioz said: 9 hours ago, Tullioz said: Those maps are a bit more generous than the IEM maps shown below; regardless, most of NC has seen measurable snow. Both sets of maps are horribly wrong for Hickory and Catawba County. Definitely no measurable snow has accumulated in our county, not even a single trace, much less multiple instances. I don’t know where those numbers are coming from. Regardless, I remember when we used to measure snowfall in inches, not traces. How many traces make an inch? Three? Twelve? 5280? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted yesterday at 06:18 AM Share Posted yesterday at 06:18 AM GFS is looking better in the long term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted yesterday at 10:54 AM Share Posted yesterday at 10:54 AM Southern is an OK forum, I post occasionally, but I cannot stand the look and feel of the site. It’s brutal to me. There are good posters there and a lot of folks who post in both but I too wish we could get some back who’ve left here. It’s quite the spectacle to go over there if Raleigh is getting screwed by a storm. If you think the Raleigh folks here are bad it’s even worse there. They have a lot of Charlotte posters too which I appreciate as someone who lived there for a long time after college The have more pbp on all models. Of course lots of posts get passed over by me. But lots of good folks at Swx for sure! But this place is my home base. Has been for years. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted yesterday at 11:38 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:38 AM Some pretty positive changes on ensembles overnight regarding NAO tanking after Christmas just before new years. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted yesterday at 11:48 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:48 AM Unfortunately the Aleutian ridge doesn’t really disappear it just retrogrades west moving the MW high axis just west enough for our -NAO, a fickle look with raging -PNA but at least some positivity. Given base state with pacific id be worried this would remain a progressive pattern and any cold shot/winter weather opportunity would be limited in duration and thus somewhat unlikely even if we end up cold around new years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted yesterday at 01:49 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:49 PM 9 hours ago, calculus1 said: Both sets of maps are horribly wrong for Hickory and Catawba County. Definitely no measurable snow has accumulated in our county, not even a single trace, much less multiple instances. I don’t know where those numbers are coming from. There was definitely a trace of snow that fell in the Hickory/Catawba County area on November 10th, December 8th, and December 12th. There were multiple reports on social media of snow falling on those dates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCentrlVA Posted yesterday at 03:05 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:05 PM How has the long range euro AI been performing? I know it's long range but one can dream. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted yesterday at 03:47 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:47 PM 41 minutes ago, WestCentrlVA said: How has the long range euro AI been performing? I know it's long range but one can dream. Need some local data on new year eve snowfall. I don't ever recall any round here. I say bank on it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted yesterday at 03:52 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 03:52 PM 4 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: Need some local data on new year eve snowfall. I don't ever recall any round here. I say bank on it Glad you asked. The period between December 26-January 1 is historically one of the least snowy periods for our area from December to March. I will back up with maps later (busy day at work) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted yesterday at 03:57 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:57 PM 51 minutes ago, WestCentrlVA said: How has the long range euro AI been performing? I know it's long range but one can dream. I’ve seen Mets saying it has a cold bias and its ensembles as well. I wish we had someone on here with access to Google deep mind, because it’s been very accurate since summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted yesterday at 06:04 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 06:04 PM 2 hours ago, wncsnow said: Glad you asked. The period between December 26-January 1 is historically one of the least snowy periods for our area from December to March. I will back up with maps later (busy day at work) Some more quick data- The last widespread winter storm in between Christmas and New Years was the Christmas storm in 2010. Before that, only Eastern NC got any appreciable snow in the 2000s during that time frame (Dec 2004) In the 90s there was also only 1 widespread winter storm the entire decade for this time period as well (1997). In the 80s there was a mountain Christmas day snow (1981) for higher elevations for no other storms that decade. In the 70s, there were a couple smaller storms during that time but no major storms. Overall, each decade has only seen 1 usually small storm during that time frame which is typically less than other weeks in December, January, February and early March. For example, the time frame between December 4-10 has seen 2 major winter storms in the past decade alone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted yesterday at 08:29 PM Share Posted yesterday at 08:29 PM NOAA is rolling out new AI models, including a hybrid model combining the GEFS and the AI GEFS https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-deploys-new-generation-of-ai-driven-global-weather-models 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago 10 hours ago, Tullioz said: There was definitely a trace of snow that fell in the Hickory/Catawba County area on November 10th, December 8th, and December 12th. There were multiple reports on social media of snow falling on those dates. A trace means essentially at least one snowflake or sleet pellet was observed. That’s it, not measurable. You could have 100 TR events and it wouldn’t equate to measurable snow. So if those maps show 3 TR events for your backyard you still haven’t seen measurable. That being said, looking at those maps I’d say 50% of the state has seen 0.10” which technically is measurable. Someone can correct me, but I don’t think snow is considered measurable unless you have 0.10”, but that’s still a low bar. By no means is anyone thrilled with 0.10” but seeing 50% of the state with “measurable” snow by Christmas hasn’t happened since 2018 and with the BN temps it’s at least has been wintry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago 18z GFS is a SER nightmare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted 22 hours ago Author Share Posted 22 hours ago 47 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: 18z GFS is a SER nightmare We're in this pattern for a while I'm afraid. I think after New Years. Maybe middle of January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago 18z GFS is a SER nightmare . 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago 1 hour ago, wncsnow said: We're in this pattern for a while I'm afraid. I think after New Years. Maybe middle of January. Oh No! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gtg947h Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago 1 hour ago, wncsnow said: We're in this pattern for a while I'm afraid. I think after New Years. Maybe middle of January. Gimme! I have the week after Christmas off and hope to do some flying and biking,and then we're moving to a new house in early January. Warm and sunny would be appreciated; I see little enough daylight (esp. on work days) as it is. Snow later in Jan is fine... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheoahBald1 Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago We're in this pattern for a while I'm afraid. I think after New Years. Maybe middle of January. If you think any weather model in the world can predict any sort of pattern in the middle of January (4 weeks away by the way) you’ve lost your mind . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted 21 hours ago Author Share Posted 21 hours ago 14 minutes ago, CheoahBald1 said: If you think any weather model in the world can predict any sort of pattern in the middle of January (4 weeks away by the way) you’ve lost your mind . Look another hater! My track record has been pretty good lately. I called the clipper pattern we saw the last week or so and this upcoming mild period over 2 weeks ago. I hope I'm wrong but unless we see major changes soon it will be at least 15-20 days before this pattern starts breaking down and that gets us to 2026. Some of you have short memories because the main reason the past 5 winters have mostly sucked is because the raging Pacific jet. We were looking for pattern changes almost every winter since 2019. Its as strong now as any of the past 5 years. Look at the record breaking, catastrophic flooding in Washington state. This should be a lesson that with even a super frigid Canada, a favorable MJO and a decent NAO, the PNA and Pacific jet extension is hard to overcome. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago There was definitely a trace of snow that fell in the Hickory/Catawba County area on November 10th, December 8th, and December 12th. There were multiple reports on social media of snow falling on those dates. I grant that a few flakes may have been seen in the air on these dates, but nothing was measurable. If that counts as a trace, so be it. I need a skiff, or a dash, or a dusting, or a coating, or some other such word before I would call it even remotely measurable.. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago A trace means essentially at least one snowflake or sleet pellet was observed. That’s it, not measurable. You could have 100 TR events and it wouldn’t equate to measurable snow. So if those maps show 3 TR events for your backyard you still haven’t seen measurable. That being said, looking at those maps I’d say 50% of the state has seen 0.10” which technically is measurable. Someone can correct me, but I don’t think snow is considered measurable unless you have 0.10”, but that’s still a low bar. By no means is anyone thrilled with 0.10” but seeing 50% of the state with “measurable” snow by Christmas hasn’t happened since 2018 and with the BN temps it’s at least has been wintry. This is most helpful. Thanks for the clarification on what is considered a trace. It also confirms my suspected conversion factor was pretty much spot on: 5280 T = 1 in.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCentrlVA Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Not saying it's right but the 0z euro run would make many happy if it actually happened. Long duration event for sure. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 0z euro is acceptable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago Oh yeah, that'll totally happen 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now