Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[Jimbo!]

Well that’s quite the torch eh? That would make me drive to Greensboro Monday instead for my Xmas eve seafood.


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[WinstonSalemArlington]

Euro says rumors of Torchmas have been greatly exaggerated 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[wncsnow]

2 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

I did notice that on the EPS. Its still steps away from a winter storm pattern but it could trend toward a CAD threat pattern. 

[Met1985]

The NAO and AO look to both be moving into the right direction on the models..the pacific isn't ideal but we can score.

[BooneWX]

I said this in the foothills thread the other day but the long range screams miller b possibilities east of the apps. 

[wncsnow]

Last night's Euro and EPS went back to warm/torch

[NorthHillsWx]

Looks pretty set that through around new years the east is going to be NN to AN and the only source of cold would be a sneaky high building in from New England (would get us cold enough so that people laugh at those calling for a torch but not actually provide winter weather shots). NAO now looks to stay slightly negative or neutral, so not much of a factor. PNA is going to stay deeply negative. I hope this is a reset and not a new base state for this winter. 

16 hours ago, BooneWX said:

I said this in the foothills thread the other day but the long range screams miller b possibilities east of the apps. 

This would require an active STJ and with the pacific raging that isn’t going to happen. I get it with NAO going neutral to slightly negative and ridge building over the Midwest, so we’ll have back door fronts and wedge opportunities, but there isn’t any moisture. Dry and near normal through new years would be the best forecast call for the region. Probably a few AN days thrown in

[Benjamn3]

Looks like Xmas torch is back on the menu. 

[BooneWX]

1 hour ago, Benjamn3 said:

Looks like Xmas torch is back on the menu. 

It is what it is at this point. We won’t be the only ones suffering. Best advice I’ve got is for everyone to take a deep breath at the keyboard, go outside, smell some Christmas trees, golf, fish, get some vitamin d. It’s been a cold 3 weeks and a break won’t be bad. I hope it’s not extended but what can any of us do about it? Jammin January and Fab Feb are just around the corner. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, BooneWX said:

It is what it is at this point. We won’t be the only ones suffering. Best advice I’ve got is for everyone to take a deep breath at the keyboard, go outside, smell some Christmas trees, golf, fish, get some vitamin d. It’s been a cold 3 weeks and a break won’t be bad. I hope it’s not extended but what can any of us do about it? Jammin January and Fab Feb are just around the corner. 

 For me it wouldn’t be “suffering”. It isn’t anything like, say, bad health/getting sick. “Suffering” is too harsh a word from my standpoint even though it’s not at all what I prefer as I want it colder than normal at any point in the year. The good thing is that it’s my favorite season of the year and warmer than normal in winter is still much colder than, say, below normal in summer. In addition, this warmer period will be following one of the coldest 3 week periods from Thanksgiving through the first 17 or so days of December I’ve ever experienced and easily the coldest since 2010.

 Even if it’s going to be mild for awhile, forecast discussions would still be interesting in the most volatile season of all, winter.

[NorthHillsWx]

Until the pacific relaxes this looks like shut the blinds for winter weather for a long time. Models showing that extreme negative PNA look now with what they’re spitting out. Just a ripping flow too, drought areas likely to get much worse. Canada is still very cold and stays cold so there might be hope down the road. December likely to finish BN for most and most of NC has measurable snow already so no shutout. Might be time to throw your middle finger up at the pacific I’m sure it’ll pay attention and listen 

[wncsnow]

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Until the pacific relaxes this looks like shut the blinds for winter weather for a long time. Models showing that extreme negative PNA look now with what they’re spitting out. Just a ripping flow too, drought areas likely to get much worse. Canada is still very cold and stays cold so there might be hope down the road. December likely to finish BN for most and most of NC has measurable snow already so no shutout. Might be time to throw your middle finger up at the pacific I’m sure it’ll pay attention and listen 

Define "most of NC has measurable snow already"

[SouthWake33]

Until the pacific relaxes this looks like shut the blinds for winter weather for a long time. Models showing that extreme negative PNA look now with what they’re spitting out. Just a ripping flow too, drought areas likely to get much worse. Canada is still very cold and stays cold so there might be hope down the road. December likely to finish BN for most and most of NC has measurable snow already so no shutout. Might be time to throw your middle finger up at the pacific I’m sure it’ll pay attention and listen 

I’m in wake county and have had temps in the teens and seen snow fall twice and it’s only the 16th of December. I’m content.


.

[wncsnow]

[wncsnow]

These overnight lows would be nearing records for warmth 

[Tullioz]

53 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Define "most of NC has measurable snow already"

[BooneWX]

4 minutes ago, Tullioz said:

I take issue with Eric’s maps. A trace is measurable and I can say definitively that no location south of Yadkin County in the NC foothills has seen a trace this year. He has my area marked at 4 “trace” events. Our best event was a 2 hr period of off and on light snow that melted on contact. 

[WNC_Fort]

2 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

I take issue with Eric’s maps. A trace is measurable and I can say definitively that no location south of Yadkin County in the NC foothills has seen a trace this year. He has my area marked at 4 “trace” events. Our best event was a 2 hr period of off and on light snow that melted on contact. 

Same here. Always shows McDowell with a trace or 0.1 and I’m sorry, hasn’t happened. 

[wncsnow]

15 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

I take issue with Eric’s maps. A trace is measurable and I can say definitively that no location south of Yadkin County in the NC foothills has seen a trace this year. He has my area marked at 4 “trace” events. Our best event was a 2 hr period of off and on light snow that melted on contact. 

That map is not even close to reality for almost everyone South of I40. Some areas east of Charlotte got a dusting but that's it. 

[Tullioz]

2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

That map is not even close to reality for almost everyone South of I40. Some areas east of Charlotte got a dusting but that's it. 

Those maps are a bit more generous than the IEM maps shown below; regardless, most of NC has seen measurable snow. 

 

 

[wncsnow]

2 minutes ago, Tullioz said:

Those maps are a bit more generous than the IEM maps shown below; regardless, most of NC has seen measurable snow. 

 

 

I would say its generous to say 50% of NC has seen "measurable snow". 80% of those measurable snow areas have seen 1 inch or less. I guess snow falling from the sky without accumulating is considered measurable nowadays. 

[Tullioz]

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

I would say its generous to say 50% of NC has seen "measurable snow". 80% of those measurable snow areas have seen 1 inch or less. I guess snow falling from the sky without accumulating is considered measurable nowadays.

Measurable snow is considered .1" or more. Looking at the IEM maps, it appears most of the state has seen at least .1". 

[wncsnow]

1 minute ago, Tullioz said:

Measurable snow is considered .1" or more. Looking at the IEM maps, it appears most of the state has seen at least .1". 

There are multiple areas they list as having .1 that is not accurate though. Most of us foothills folks can tell you that. Regardless, places other than TN border areas and higher elevations have not seen a winter storm in NC this season.

[BooneWX]

The SouthernWX forum has devolved into a war between warm weather trollers and the rest of the board lmao. 

[wncsnow]

4 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

The SouthernWX forum has devolved into a war between warm weather trollers and the rest of the board lmao. 

I don't even have an account on there. 

[BooneWX]

22 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I don't even have an account on there. 

You don’t have to. I peak over there to cross check the vibes and today is a hilarious war of words. That’s why I stick here. Everything is measured and while they have some great posters, it’s full of too many folks speaking in absolutes and getting obnoxious when the ball doesn’t roll their way. 
 

I go here to converse, read anything from @Carvers Gapto learn, and head there for my entertainment.

[GaWx]

30 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I don't even have an account on there. 

 

7 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

You don’t have to. I peak over there to cross check the vibes and today is a hilarious war of words. That’s why I stick here. Everything is measured and while they have some great posters, it’s full of too many folks speaking in absolutes and getting obnoxious when the ball doesn’t roll their way. 
 

I go here to converse, read anything from @Carvers Gapto learn, and head there for my entertainment.

 The two forums are very intertwined between many (probably a majority) of its members also being members and former posters here as well as some currently posting at both (in some cases with different names). I’m sure many read both boards daily.

[BooneWX]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 

 The two forums are very intertwined between many (probably a majority) of its members also being members and former posters here as well as some currently posting at both (in some cases with different names). I’m sure many read both boards daily.

Selfishly, I spend most of my time here and would love to get our former forum stalwarts back to posting on AmericanWx. We’ve segmented more the last few years by region since many have dropped off and I think that’s only enhanced discussions. 

[wncsnow]

I just hope we start seeing legit signs of something better in January before January turns into February