Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[BornAgain13]

The 18z HRRR is beautiful 

[BooneWX]

Caution on the clown maps for the HRRR. I did some poking around and it’s a rain sounding for most of the event except for the Virginia border northward, despite the surface depiction 

[wncsnow]

1 minute ago, BooneWX said:

Caution on the clown maps for the HRRR. I did some poking around and it’s a rain sounding for most of the event except for the Virginia border northward, despite the surface depiction 

I got some snow soundings here. 

[wncsnow]

Its really not much of a warm layer

[BooneWX]

This is going to be one of those events where heavy returns = snow, lighter returns will mean light rain. Gotta hope you’re under a band that thumps. 

[PackGrad05]

18Z HRRR almost identical to 12Z for Wake

[BooneWX]

One thing to watch: color me doubtful that we get close to 50° under thick cloud cover tomorrow 

[wncsnow]

3 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

This is going to be one of those events where heavy returns = snow, lighter returns will mean light rain. Gotta hope you’re under a band that thumps. 

I agree. 

[BooneWX]

5:1 ratios for this would be my guess as well

[BooneWX]

Colder, juicier nam run

[BornAgain13]

8 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Colder, juicier nam run

Looks lighter on the accumulations though 

[BooneWX]

2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Looks lighter on the accumulations though 

Load the 3k

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[olafminesaw]

I think the RGEM depicts how this will play out with the totals south of the VA border being rate dependent (a dusting for many but locally 2")

[BornAgain13]

18z GFS beefs totals up again. If only it could be right. 

[BornAgain13]

Monday system - 18z GFS with not much at all

[kvegas-wx]

Who is going to mention ground temps?!?  They're cold for once!  Nearly every rain drop will stick.    I'm a skeptic until the mulch is white.  

[olafminesaw]

5 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

18z GFS beefs totals up again. If only it could be right. 

It's been good to see the trend towards a juicier system. At the same time we walk a tightrope where the system maybe trending North pushing the rain snow line north of the VA border. This may not get resolved until precip is falling here in the battle zone (Northern NC Piedmont).

Looks great up your way regardless 

[olafminesaw]

[BornAgain13]

Latest RAP aggressive like the GFS.

[Buddy1987]

@BornAgain13keep these bad boys coming!

[BooneWX]

Alleghany County and Surry are going to be the big winners. Good for Alleghany too - they’re on the very far east end of the escarpment and don’t benefit very much from northwest flow, despite having the elevation for it. 

[WiseWeather]

Looks like all snow 40 north… mixing around winston gsbo


.

[BooneWX]

Graf is warmer on recent runs. Essentially all rain south of Wilkes, Yadkin counties in the west. Triad dangerously close unless you’re a border county. 

[BornAgain13]

I would think since we are so close to the event... tonight's models should tell the tale!

[olafminesaw]

Overall not a good set of runs at 18z for the I40 corridor. Teetering on the edge, so hopefully things will swing back south overnight 

[wncsnow]

When riding the fence bet cold rain. If tonight's runs are even warmer yikes. 

[wncsnow]

HRRR definitely warmer and north with the precip

[wncsnow]

It went from 34 and mixed precip to 38 and rain here 

[wncsnow]

Soon to be- congrats DC