BornAgain13 Posted December 3, 2025 Share Posted December 3, 2025 The 18z HRRR is beautiful 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 3, 2025 Share Posted December 3, 2025 Caution on the clown maps for the HRRR. I did some poking around and it’s a rain sounding for most of the event except for the Virginia border northward, despite the surface depiction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 3, 2025 Author Share Posted December 3, 2025 1 minute ago, BooneWX said: Caution on the clown maps for the HRRR. I did some poking around and it’s a rain sounding for most of the event except for the Virginia border northward, despite the surface depiction I got some snow soundings here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 3, 2025 Author Share Posted December 3, 2025 Its really not much of a warm layer 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 3, 2025 Share Posted December 3, 2025 This is going to be one of those events where heavy returns = snow, lighter returns will mean light rain. Gotta hope you’re under a band that thumps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 3, 2025 Share Posted December 3, 2025 18Z HRRR almost identical to 12Z for Wake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 3, 2025 Share Posted December 3, 2025 One thing to watch: color me doubtful that we get close to 50° under thick cloud cover tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 3, 2025 Author Share Posted December 3, 2025 3 minutes ago, BooneWX said: This is going to be one of those events where heavy returns = snow, lighter returns will mean light rain. Gotta hope you’re under a band that thumps. I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 3, 2025 Share Posted December 3, 2025 5:1 ratios for this would be my guess as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 3, 2025 Share Posted December 3, 2025 Colder, juicier nam run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 3, 2025 Share Posted December 3, 2025 8 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Colder, juicier nam run Looks lighter on the accumulations though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 3, 2025 Share Posted December 3, 2025 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Looks lighter on the accumulations though Load the 3k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 3, 2025 Share Posted December 3, 2025 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 3, 2025 Share Posted December 3, 2025 I think the RGEM depicts how this will play out with the totals south of the VA border being rate dependent (a dusting for many but locally 2") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 3, 2025 Share Posted December 3, 2025 18z GFS beefs totals up again. If only it could be right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 3, 2025 Share Posted December 3, 2025 Monday system - 18z GFS with not much at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 3, 2025 Share Posted December 3, 2025 Who is going to mention ground temps?!? They're cold for once! Nearly every rain drop will stick. I'm a skeptic until the mulch is white. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 3, 2025 Share Posted December 3, 2025 5 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 18z GFS beefs totals up again. If only it could be right. It's been good to see the trend towards a juicier system. At the same time we walk a tightrope where the system maybe trending North pushing the rain snow line north of the VA border. This may not get resolved until precip is falling here in the battle zone (Northern NC Piedmont). Looks great up your way regardless 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 3, 2025 Share Posted December 3, 2025 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 3, 2025 Share Posted December 3, 2025 Latest RAP aggressive like the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 3, 2025 Share Posted December 3, 2025 @BornAgain13keep these bad boys coming! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 3, 2025 Share Posted December 3, 2025 Alleghany County and Surry are going to be the big winners. Good for Alleghany too - they’re on the very far east end of the escarpment and don’t benefit very much from northwest flow, despite having the elevation for it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted December 3, 2025 Share Posted December 3, 2025 Looks like all snow 40 north… mixing around winston gsbo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 3, 2025 Share Posted December 3, 2025 Graf is warmer on recent runs. Essentially all rain south of Wilkes, Yadkin counties in the west. Triad dangerously close unless you’re a border county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 I would think since we are so close to the event... tonight's models should tell the tale! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 Overall not a good set of runs at 18z for the I40 corridor. Teetering on the edge, so hopefully things will swing back south overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 4, 2025 Author Share Posted December 4, 2025 When riding the fence bet cold rain. If tonight's runs are even warmer yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 4, 2025 Author Share Posted December 4, 2025 HRRR definitely warmer and north with the precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 4, 2025 Author Share Posted December 4, 2025 It went from 34 and mixed precip to 38 and rain here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 4, 2025 Author Share Posted December 4, 2025 Soon to be- congrats DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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