Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[BornAgain13]

The 18z HRRR is beautiful 

[BooneWX]

Caution on the clown maps for the HRRR. I did some poking around and it’s a rain sounding for most of the event except for the Virginia border northward, despite the surface depiction 

[wncsnow]

1 minute ago, BooneWX said:

Caution on the clown maps for the HRRR. I did some poking around and it’s a rain sounding for most of the event except for the Virginia border northward, despite the surface depiction 

I got some snow soundings here. 

[wncsnow]

Its really not much of a warm layer

[BooneWX]

This is going to be one of those events where heavy returns = snow, lighter returns will mean light rain. Gotta hope you’re under a band that thumps. 

[PackGrad05]

18Z HRRR almost identical to 12Z for Wake

[BooneWX]

One thing to watch: color me doubtful that we get close to 50° under thick cloud cover tomorrow 

[wncsnow]

3 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

This is going to be one of those events where heavy returns = snow, lighter returns will mean light rain. Gotta hope you’re under a band that thumps. 

I agree. 

[BooneWX]

5:1 ratios for this would be my guess as well

[BooneWX]

Colder, juicier nam run

[BornAgain13]

8 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Colder, juicier nam run

Looks lighter on the accumulations though 

[BooneWX]

2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Looks lighter on the accumulations though 

Load the 3k

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[olafminesaw]

I think the RGEM depicts how this will play out with the totals south of the VA border being rate dependent (a dusting for many but locally 2")