Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Ukie

[wncsnow]

Euro looks similar, a little light on the precip though 

[wncsnow]

[wncsnow]

Meh. 

[wncsnow]

Round 2 on the Euro for Sat night but its mostly rain outside the mountains 

[BooneWX]

This is a good example of how blocking isn’t required but it only helps and makes it a hell of a lot easier to score. 

[BornAgain13]

12z CMC Ensembles increased for the Friday event.  12z EPS similar to 6z. Most models have at least something light for Friday except GFS/GEFS.

[Buddy1987]

@BornAgain13 I feel like with as many times as the models have let me down in the medium to long range I won’t believe this actually happens until everything is still onboard Thursday night. Monday actually looked super interesting on the GFS. 

[NorthHillsWx]

It’s before Christmas and we’re on our second and possibly third threat. (First being early November snow to the coast). Maybe we don’t all see flakes but that’s a heck of a start compared to last 7 winters 

[Upstate Tiger]

3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

It’s before Christmas and we’re on our second and possibly third threat. (First being early November snow to the coast). Maybe we don’t all see flakes but that’s a heck of a start compared to last 7 winters 

He ain't lyin.

[olafminesaw]

December climo for 1" snowfalls before 2005 and after 2005. Even before 2005 they were a 10-30% chance outside the mountains in any given year. We are fortunate to be even talking about the possibility of snow

Mountains are a different matter

[CentralNC]

33 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

It’s before Christmas and we’re on our second and possibly third threat. (First being early November snow to the coast). Maybe we don’t all see flakes but that’s a heck of a start compared to last 7 winters 

At this point, just glad to see some kind, any kind, of precip come our way.  Incredibly dry here.

[wncsnow]

9 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

December climo for 1" snowfalls before 2005 and after 2005. Even before 2005 they were a 10-30% chance outside the mountains in any given year. We are fortunate to be even talking about the possibility of snow

Mountains are a different matter

I broke it down a bit further and researched winter storms since 2000 in December and this is what I could find for WNC-

 

In December 2000 there was a 1-3 inch snow for most of the foothills west of 77 and mountains

In December 2002 there was a nice CAD storm with 2-6 inches for most of the foothills and mountains

In December 2003 there were multiple small events/icing events

In December 2005 there were 2 icing events 

In December 2009 there was the big snowstorm on December 19 

In December 2010 there were a couple small events and the big Christmas snow

In December 2017 there was a big overrunning snow

In December 2018 there was a big snow

In December 2019 there was a light icing event

 

So thats 9 out of 25 winters with at least small events. There were 4 big snowstorms in that time frame. December has definitely been feast or famine but over the past 25 years it has produced 3 of the 5 biggest snowstorms for WNC. 

 

 

[wncsnow]

NAM is colder this run but its razor edge

[wncsnow]

Best WNC December snow storms of all time. Courtesy of webber weather

 

 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[BooneWX]

GFS at 42 hrs screams overrunning setup. Not saying that’s a high probability in the realm of likelihood for this event but it’s not something the globals would pick up on days in advance either.

[BooneWX]

Token flakes north of I-40, but the gfs continues to be unenthused 

[NorthHillsWx]

Just now, BooneWX said:

Token flakes north of I-40, but the gfs continues to be unenthused 

Still ticking colder every run

[NorthHillsWx]

12z Friday it’s gone from 41 to 36 in Raleigh over the last 4 runs that’s not a small tick 

[wncsnow]

We need heavier precip. Light rates= brown ground

[BooneWX]

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

Still ticking colder every run

I’ll be honest, I’m more concerned about moisture than thermals. It’s just such a strung out suppressed mess. I think a good chunk of NC would have the temps to support snow, especially early, but we just can’t seem to get that moisture transport northward.

[NorthHillsWx]

Just now, BooneWX said:

I’ll be honest, I’m more concerned about moisture than thermals. It’s just such a strung out suppressed mess. I think a good chunk of NC would have the temps to support snow, especially early, but we just can’t seem to get that moisture transport northward.

Agreed. Heavier rates with the high still in a decent spot Friday morning would most certainly mean snow for the northern half of the state. Timing (earlier) rates (heavier) are keys 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Happy Hanukkah

[GaWx]

13 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Happy Hanukkah

These, especially the first map, are consistent with typical phase 8 MJO in the E US:

 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[BornAgain13]

18z UK looked like it was about to deliver

[Buddy1987]

18z gfs is why it’s hard to get overly invested anymore.

[wncsnow]

Its such a marginal setup with temps and precip, you are setting yourself up for disappointment if you expect more than a coating- inch. Of course that can still change but it can also change on the dry side too.