Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Ukie

[wncsnow]

Euro looks similar, a little light on the precip though 

[wncsnow]

[wncsnow]

Meh. 

[wncsnow]

Round 2 on the Euro for Sat night but its mostly rain outside the mountains 

[BooneWX]

This is a good example of how blocking isn’t required but it only helps and makes it a hell of a lot easier to score. 

[BornAgain13]

12z CMC Ensembles increased for the Friday event.  12z EPS similar to 6z. Most models have at least something light for Friday except GFS/GEFS.

[Buddy1987]

@BornAgain13 I feel like with as many times as the models have let me down in the medium to long range I won’t believe this actually happens until everything is still onboard Thursday night. Monday actually looked super interesting on the GFS. 

[NorthHillsWx]

It’s before Christmas and we’re on our second and possibly third threat. (First being early November snow to the coast). Maybe we don’t all see flakes but that’s a heck of a start compared to last 7 winters 

[Upstate Tiger]

3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

It’s before Christmas and we’re on our second and possibly third threat. (First being early November snow to the coast). Maybe we don’t all see flakes but that’s a heck of a start compared to last 7 winters 

He ain't lyin.

[olafminesaw]

December climo for 1" snowfalls before 2005 and after 2005. Even before 2005 they were a 10-30% chance outside the mountains in any given year. We are fortunate to be even talking about the possibility of snow

Mountains are a different matter

[CentralNC]

33 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

It’s before Christmas and we’re on our second and possibly third threat. (First being early November snow to the coast). Maybe we don’t all see flakes but that’s a heck of a start compared to last 7 winters 

At this point, just glad to see some kind, any kind, of precip come our way.  Incredibly dry here.

[wncsnow]

9 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

December climo for 1" snowfalls before 2005 and after 2005. Even before 2005 they were a 10-30% chance outside the mountains in any given year. We are fortunate to be even talking about the possibility of snow

Mountains are a different matter

I broke it down a bit further and researched winter storms since 2000 in December and this is what I could find for WNC-

 

In December 2000 there was a 1-3 inch snow for most of the foothills west of 77 and mountains

In December 2002 there was a nice CAD storm with 2-6 inches for most of the foothills and mountains

In December 2003 there were multiple small events/icing events

In December 2005 there were 2 icing events 

In December 2009 there was the big snowstorm on December 19 

In December 2010 there were a couple small events and the big Christmas snow

In December 2017 there was a big overrunning snow

In December 2018 there was a big snow

In December 2019 there was a light icing event

 

So thats 9 out of 25 winters with at least small events. There were 4 big snowstorms in that time frame. December has definitely been feast or famine but over the past 25 years it has produced 3 of the 5 biggest snowstorms for WNC. 

 

 

[wncsnow]

NAM is colder this run but its razor edge

[wncsnow]

Best WNC December snow storms of all time. Courtesy of webber weather