Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[suzook]

19 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Probably not. It Probably doesn't make it in the short term or mid term with the way the indices are setting up.

I'm seeing 80's of November on the GFS. Its definitely a possibility.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Cold AF

[BooneWX]

Moving forward this winter, I’ll be giving Google DeepMind quite a bit of attention. It’s been performing very well in the tropics. 

[SEwakenosnowforu]

5 hours ago, suzook said:

I'm seeing 80's of November on the GFS. Its definitely a possibility.

I would definitely take 80s in November as long as we get a hard freeze out of the way first. Let the cold come in December or January!

[Daniel Boone]

5 hours ago, suzook said:

I'm seeing 80's of November on the GFS. Its definitely a possibility.

6z gfs. Nuff said. There will be at least a period of warmer wx after this extended cool period but doubt that warm .

[Met1985]

5 hours ago, suzook said:

I'm seeing 80's of November on the GFS. Its definitely a possibility.

Your using a 300 hour map? Interesting. 

[Met1985]

More realistic time frame.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

[wncsnow]

If we can keep some blocking, we might score before Christmas this year

[Met1985]

5 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

If we can keep some blocking, we might score before Christmas this year

Im hoping so. Obviously way to soon to tell and we've seen patterns go to crap quick but I do like the look of the next few weeks.

[Daniel Boone]

35 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

More realistic time frame.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

That'll at least support Upslope. Even flakes into Valley's.

[Met1985]

2 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

That'll at least support Upslope. Even flakes into Valley's.

Yeah as you stated in the mountains thread we will see some high elevation snow the next 5 to 7 days.

[BooneWX]

47 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

If we can keep some blocking, we might score before Christmas this year

I’d take one decent pre-Christmas snow over 2 in Jan/Feb. Nothing on earth can match the magic of a good Jeb walk around the neighborhood with a blanket of white and Christmas lights glowing. 

[strongwxnc]

I’d take one decent pre-Christmas snow over 2 in Jan/Feb. Nothing on earth can match the magic of a good Jeb walk around the neighborhood with a blanket of white and Christmas lights glowing. 

That’s a bold statement… I agree


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[wncsnow]

1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah as you stated in the mountains thread we will see some high elevation snow the next 5 to 7 days.

Honestly a lot of our best snows the past 20 years have been before or near Christmas storms. 

2009 big storm area wide 10-16"

2010 Christmas snow are wide 6-12"

2017 overrunning snow area wide 4-8"

2018 big storm area wide 10-16" 

And by area wide I mean WNC 

[strongwxnc]

Honestly a lot of our best snows the past 20 years have been before or near Christmas storms. 
2009 big storm area wide 10-16"
2010 Christmas snow are wide 6-12"
2017 overrunning snow area wide 4-8"
2018 big storm area wide 10-16" 
And by area wide I mean WNC 

18 was nice. Shut down school for a week. Nice cold was attach to it also


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[BooneWX]

37 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Honestly a lot of our best snows the past 20 years have been before or near Christmas storms. 

2009 big storm area wide 10-16"

2010 Christmas snow are wide 6-12"

2017 overrunning snow area wide 4-8"

2018 big storm area wide 10-16" 

And by area wide I mean WNC 

2009 was such a fun and often overlooked event. I remember it started as a trickle that afternoon and just became an avalanche by dinner time. Cars center-bound on the roads, plows could accomplish nothing. Days of sledding and ice cold through Christmas. I remember family dinner Christmas Eve at our grandparents home and still having to scrape black ice off the driveway. 

[GaWx]

Today’s Euro Weeklies out 6 weeks for E US:

- Coldest 1st 2 weeks of any run for that period (10/27-11/9) thanks to a combo of an impressive +PNA and impressive ascending -NAO, which should it verify closely would be coldest for E US overall since the similarly chilly Oct 27-Nov 9 in 2012.

 For those curious, that period in 2012 actually had a mean near opposite weak -PNA as well as a similarly strong -NAO and weak -AO.
It had a +EPO like we have now. It had for the MJO a moderate 2, mod 3, and ended with weak 4/5.

- No long period of mild in sight with weeks 3, 5, and 6 NN and week 4 only barely AN

[wncsnow]

1 hour ago, BooneWX said:

2009 was such a fun and often overlooked event. I remember it started as a trickle that afternoon and just became an avalanche by dinner time. Cars center-bound on the roads, plows could accomplish nothing. Days of sledding and ice cold through Christmas. I remember family dinner Christmas Eve at our grandparents home and still having to scrape black ice off the driveway. 

I missed 2009 in college in VA Beach, but it was the first 12"+ snow in greater McDowell since Jan 96. 

It's been 7 years since our last 12" snow. 2022 was close but not quite. 

 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[WinstonSalemArlington]

November 10 (for entertainment purposes only)

[Jimbo!]

It’s a mythical veteran’s day storm lol


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[BooneWX]

SHEEEEEEEEESH


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[kvegas-wx]

31 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

SHEEEEEEEEESH


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Thats a photo of my Jan 2026 winter storm right over Forsyth County.  Snowing at 60" per hour right under those clouds. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Threatening us with a good time