Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Halloween 

[Daniel Boone]

As of now, barring any drastic changes, the main Climate Driver Data extrapolated for the Winter suggests a strong SER presence. Of course, blocking is tough to factor in. If that were to manifest then things could be different...unless there's the SER -NAO Linkage.

  If you're a cold/snow lover like me it doesn't look good. As far as economically, it would be great as utility prices as well as other basic needs continue to rise. Many are having trouble making ends meet. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

First freezes soon?

[Met1985]

1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said:

As of now, barring any drastic changes, the main Climate Driver Data extrapolated for the Winter suggests a strong SER presence. Of course, blocking is tough to factor in. If that were to manifest then things could be different...unless there's the SER -NAO Linkage.

  If you're a cold/snow lover like me it doesn't look good. As far as economically, it would be great as utility prices as well as other basic needs continue to rise. Many are having trouble making ends meet. 

I think it's way to soon to be giving up on winter currently.  The models cannot even get past 5 days correct let alone the next several months correct.  We have a weak pv currently and the Eurasian snow cover is currently looking really good.  I'm an optimist though this winter so we will see but I like our chances. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Halloween Eve

[Daniel Boone]

8 hours ago, Met1985 said:

I think it's way to soon to be giving up on winter currently.  The models cannot even get past 5 days correct let alone the next several months correct.  We have a weak pv currently and the Eurasian snow cover is currently looking really good.  I'm an optimist though this winter so we will see but I like our chances. 

I agree brother. I was just pointing out how the main Driver and Analog Computer generated Outlook basically, that Don Sutherland came up with with his meticulously done Calculations. Check it out in the main Forum. Interesting, although like you, I'm hoping the Asian snow/ice above average buildup and weak PV you noted does help. I don't know if he factored those Parameters in or not. He went into some detail on what was used but, seemed mosly analogus to similar late Summer Years and ENSO Status. Those boiling WPAC SST'S will cause a firehouse PAC Jet so, depending on how strong Blocking in the AO Domain is, it could present a problem for us. Our best hope for is that those Waters in the NEPAC warm back up ala 2013-14. That would help augment ridging into Alaska and western Canada. I had high hopes earlier for a likelihood of a dominant -NAO due to the cold SST'S around Newfoundland but, those have since warmed dramatically. Hopefully something will cool them once again.

[Met1985]

18 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

I agree brother. I was just pointing out how the main Driver and Analog Computer generated Outlook basically, that Don Sutherland came up with with his meticulously done Calculations. Check it out in the main Forum. Interesting, although like you, I'm hoping the Asian snow/ice above average buildup and weak PV you noted does help. I don't know if he factored those Parameters in or not. He went into some detail on what was used but, seemed mosly analogus to similar late Summer Years and ENSO Status. Those boiling WPAC SST'S will cause a firehouse PAC Jet so, depending on how strong Blocking in the AO Domain is, it could present a problem for us. Our best hope for is that those Waters in the NEPAC warm back up ala 2013-14. That would help augment ridging into Alaska and western Canada. I had high hopes earlier for a likelihood of a dominant -NAO due to the cold SST'S around Newfoundland but, those have since warmed dramatically. Hopefully something will cool them once again.

Oh yeah I've read the board and it does seem very bleak.  Maybe my blinders are on but im trying not to hard to complicate this winter. And after last winter with the crazy long cold stretch in January and the record breaking snow along the gulf that no one had predicted nor believed, im hedging on something as variable as that or could be near that. We are in different times using analog years and rolling things into the future in my opinion.  We will see what happens but I'm still very positive on this winter around here.

[Daniel Boone]

1 minute ago, Met1985 said:

Oh yeah I've read the board and it does seem very bleak.  Maybe my blinders are on but im trying not to hard to complicate this winter. And after last winter with the crazy long cold stretch in January and the record breaking snow along the gulf that no one had predicted nor believed, im hedging on something as variable as that or could be near that. We are in different times using analog years and rolling things into the future in my opinion.  We will see what happens but I'm still very positive on this winter around here.

Exactly. I don't see it being as bad as his outcome turned out. I like Don but, he's heavy into Global warming and I think he incorporates that a bit much. If Pensacola can get a record Snowstorm we can still get abundant Snowfall Winter's.

[Met1985]

11 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Exactly. I don't see it being as bad as his outcome turned out. I like Don but, he's heavy into Global warming and I think he incorporates that a bit much. If Pensacola can get a record Snowstorm we can still get abundant Snowfall Winter's.

Yeah there are a ton of variables in the global atmosphere and a lot of things going on currently.  I think ill wait and see how things evolve from mid October through the end of the year. I do know the sentiment about this winter is very negative.  

[wncsnow]

There's little reason to be positive for my area. We haven't reached winter storm warning criteria since 2022 and that was the only time it has been reached since 2018. This is the biggest snow drought in modern history for this area. 16 inches of snow in 7 winters. 11 of that in one storm. Take that storm away and it's 5 inches of snow in 7 winters. 4 of those winters with 0 snow. With the way this winter is setting up, I would be surprised to get a winter storm warning event. 

[chris21]

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

There's little reason to be positive for my area. We haven't reached winter storm warning criteria since 2022 and that was the only time it has been reached since 2018. This is the biggest snow drought in modern history for this area. 16 inches of snow in 7 winters. 11 of that in one storm. Take that storm away and it's 5 inches of snow in 7 winters. 4 of those winters with 0 snow. With the way this winter is setting up, I would be surprised to get a winter storm warning event. 

Yeah, 80-90 percent of my snow comes from NW flow lately. If we actually had an average amount of synoptic snow we could really rack up the seasonal total.

[BooneWX]

I do think the mountains fair well this season. It could be hell in between cold shots but the pattern likely favors a lot of nw flow action with brief cool downs. The lakes are extremely warm compared to normal which will delay if not prevent them from icing over.

[Met1985]

2 hours ago, wncsnow said:

There's little reason to be positive for my area. We haven't reached winter storm warning criteria since 2022 and that was the only time it has been reached since 2018. This is the biggest snow drought in modern history for this area. 16 inches of snow in 7 winters. 11 of that in one storm. Take that storm away and it's 5 inches of snow in 7 winters. 4 of those winters with 0 snow. With the way this winter is setting up, I would be surprised to get a winter storm warning event. 

The gulf had more snow than you lol.

[strongwxnc]

The gulf had more snow than you lol.

That was hard to watch last year. Very hard .


.

[BooneWX]

45 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

The gulf had more snow than you lol.

Correction, the gulf has had more snow than us in 3 years combined. 
 

I’m going to go ahead and admit it without apologizing to my dear brethren down east and to the south. I am seeking a 1035+ HP in Ohio/NY with a  robust miller B or a Miller A with a track 50 miles inland from the coast this winter. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[wncsnow]

My 5 year old barely knows what snow is. I would love to see a graphic/map that shows the difference between actual and average snowfall for the east coast. Most of western NC/SC has to be one of the biggest losers since 2019. 

 

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, BooneWX said:

I do think the mountains fair well this season. It could be hell in between cold shots but the pattern likely favors a lot of nw flow action with brief cool downs. The lakes are extremely warm compared to normal which will delay if not prevent them from icing over.

Hopefully the Polar Jet will come down far enough to produce plenty Upslope. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Euro AI

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Monday morning wind chills

[GaWx]

6 hours ago, strongwxnc said:

That was hard to watch last year. Very hard .


.

 Not for me. We usually have to wait many years and sometimes several decades between big winter storms. We loved our 3” of sleet, easily the heaviest sleet on record! Just like you guys love your snow, we loved our sleet and look forward to the next big winter storm in whatever decade that will be if we’re fortunate enough to still be around to enjoy it. And even if we had gotten nothing, just seeing a historic wx extreme like they had in FL of nearly a 10” max last winter would still have been fascinating on its own to follow. I don’t get upset when places south of us get a winter storm and I don’t.

[Met1985]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Not for me. We usually have to wait many years and sometimes several decades between big winter storms. We loved our 3” of sleet, easily the heaviest sleet on record! Just like you guys love your snow, we loved our sleet and look forward to the next big winter storm in whatever decade that will be if we’re fortunate enough to still be around to enjoy it. And even if we had gotten nothing, just seeing a historic wx extreme like they had in FL of nearly a 10” max last winter would still have been fascinating on its own to follow. I don’t get upset when places south of us get a winter storm and I don’t.

Larry it definitely was a historical event to remember..im glad yall got nailed.