2025 forecast contests -- enter for October 2025 contest (deadline 06z October 1st)

Roger Smith · September 25

=== ::: [] <<<<<<< Annual Scoring for Jan-Sep 2025 >>>>>>> [] ::: ===

FORECASTER _____DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH _ cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__west __TOTALS

___ Consensus ______589 _626 _650_ 1865__544 _622 _644_1810 _3675__623_664_742_2029 __5714

Tom __________________ 605 _630 _676 __1911 __550 _552 _658__1760 _3671 __686 _658 _684__2028___5699

hudsonvalley21 ______ 555 _622 _674 __1851 __494 _582 _647 __1723 __3574 __640 _634 _738__2012__5586

so_whats_happening __623 _662 _628 __1913 __550 _626 _575__1751__3664 __606 _582 _726__1914___5578

Scotty Lightning ______598 _ 656 _618 __ 1872__487 _526 _664__1677 _3549 __597 _702 _698__1997___5546

RJay _________________ 540 _641 _659 __ 1840 __588 _648 _638__1874 _3714 __529 _551 _631 __ 1711___5425

DonSutherland1 ______ 529 _578 _624 __1731 __560 _596 _582__ 1738 _3469 __645 _616 _690__1951___5420

wxallannj _____________ 515 _554 _592 __1661 __514 _554 _618__ 1686 _ 3347 __634 _654 _679 __1967___5314

RodneyS _____________ 552 _560 _628 __1740 __394 _472 _576__1442 _3182 __561 _592 _822 __1975___ 5157

wxdude64 ____________496 _542 _560 __1598 __430_ 542 _580__1552 _3150__ 653 _646 _684__1983__ 5133

Roger Smith __________498 _584 _594 __1676 __562 _570 _588__1720 _3396 __448 _604 _673__ 1725___5121

StormchaserChuck ___559 _582 _600 __1741 __414 _614 _ 521__1549 _ 3290 __ 605 _612 _597 __ 1814___5104

___ Normal ____________528 _576 _586 __1690 __458 _386 _405__1249__2939__648 _546 _666__1860__4799

BKViking (7/9) _______ 366 _403 _439 __1208 __378 _486 _424__1288 _2496 __476 _480 _497__1453__3949

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - prorated total __5078

Yoda _(2/9) ____________094 _110 _110 __ 314 __ 124 _ 110 _ 188 __ 422 ___ 736 __168 _148 _168 ___ 484 ___1220

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- prorated total __5490

maxim (2/9) __________ 180 _ 152 _164 __ 496 ___ 96_ 120 _ 082 __298__ 794 __92 _ 90 _ 135__ 317 ____ 1111

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - prorated total __5000

Persistence ___________320 _430 _560 __1310 ___286 _344 _566 _1196 _2506__470 _462 _636 __1568 ___4074

____________________________
________________________________

__ Best scores __ (updated for Sep)

^ incl tied for best score

* incl 3 - 5 tied for best score

____________________ DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ORD_ATL_IAH_cent__c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__TOTALS

___ Consensus ______2*__0 __ 0 ___0 ___0 __0 __ 1 __0 __0 ___1 ___1 ___1 ___0 ___0

Tom ___________________2 *__ 1^ _ 2 ___1 ___ 2 ___2^ __2^___1 ___1 ___ 0 __ 2 ___2^___2 ___2 __ Mar,Jun

hudsonvalley21 ________ 1 *__ 2^__2 ___1 ___ 1 __ 1 __ 2^ ___0 __ 0 ___2^^__ 1 __ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0

so_whats_happening __ 1 *__ 1 __ 0 ___0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___ 2^__ 1^ __ 1 ___2 ___ 0

Scotty Lightning _______ 3^*__1^__ 1^___0 ___ 0 __1^__ 3 ___ 0 __0 ___ 0 __ 3*___1 ___1 ____1 _Sep(t)

RJay ___________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___0 ___ 2^__1^__ 2^^__3 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1*__ 1^___0 ___ 0

Don Sutherland 1 _______1 *__ 1^__ 1*__ 0 ___ 0 __1 ___0 ___ 0 __0 ___ 1 __ 1^ __ 0 ___0 ___ 0

wxallannj _______________1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1^ __ 1^__0 ___0 ____0

RodneyS _______________ 1 __ 1 __ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 __ 2^ __1^ __ 2 ___ 2 ___1 __ 1 ___ 4^___1 ____2 _ May,Aug

wxdude64 ______________1 __ 2^__ 1*___2 ___ 0 __0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 2 ___0 __0___ 0 ____1 _ Jan

Roger Smith ____________1^ __3^^__2^ __2 ___3 ___3^^__2^^__ 1 ___2 ___0 __ 1^__ 0 ___1 ____3 _ Feb,Jul,Sep(t)

StormchaserChuck _____1 __ 1^__ 1 ____2 ___ 1^__ 1 ___1 ___ 0 ___1 ___ 0 ___0 __ 1^___ 1 ____0 _Apr

BKViking _______________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___0 ___ 0 __ 1 ___0 ___ 2 __ 1 ____1 ___ 1*__0 ___0 ___0

___ Normal ______________ 1 __ 2 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __0 ___ 2 __ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 ____0

maxim __________________ 1 __ 0 __ 1* ___0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __0 ___1 ___ 1 __ 0 ___1 ___ 0

==============================

(tie for Consensus or Normal is not a tie for forecaster(s))

Extreme forecasts _ updated for Sep

So far, 46 of 81 ... 23 for warmest and 23 for coldest ... Jan 1-4, Feb 1-4, Mar 5-0, Apr 6-0, May 2-6, Jun 1-1, Jul 1-1, Aug 1-6 and Sep 5-1.

Forecaster ____________ Jan _Feb _Mar _Apr _May _Jun_Jul _Aug __ Total___adj for ties (*2 tied, ^3 tied)

Rodney S ______________ 2-1 _1*-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _3*0 _0-1_0-0 _4-0 _1-0 __11-2 ___10.0 - 2.0

Roger Smith ___________ 0-0 _3-1 _ 0-1 _ 1*0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _1*-0_1*-0_4^-0__12-2___8.0 - 2.0

___ Normal _____________ 1-0 _0-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 __ 2-0 _0-1 _1-0 __2-0 _1-0 __ 7-2 ___ 7.0 - 2.0

Scotty Lightning _______ 1-0 _0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0_0-0_ 0-1 _3^-0 __8-1 ____ 6.5 - 1.0

hudsonvalley21 _________1*-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 1-1 _ 0-0_ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 __4-1 ___3.5 - 0.0

Stormchaser Chuck ____ 0-0 _0-0 _0-1 _ 4*-2 _0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 __4-3 ___ 3.5 - 3.0

maxim __________________1^-0_0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 __3-0 ___ 2.33-0.0

Tom ____________________0-0 _0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 2*0 _ 0-0_0-0 _0-0_1*-0 __ 4-0 ___ 3.0 - 0.0

wxdude64 ______________1^-0_ 0-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0_0-0 __1-0 _0-1 __ 3-1 ____2.33-1.0

RJay ____________________0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _2**-0_0-0 _ 0-0_1 *-0_0-0_1*-0 _ 4-0 ___ 2.0-0.0

so_whats_happening ___ 1*-0 _1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 __0-0_1-0 __0-0 _0-0__3-0 ___ 2.0 - 0.0

Don Sutherland _________1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0_0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 __2-0 ____1.33-0.0

BKViking _______________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 __1-0 ____1.0 - 0.0

wxallannj _______________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _1*-0_0-0__1-0 ___ 0.5 - 0.0

^ (note: For Sep wins, Roger Smith and Scotty Lightning tied three, not shown by * symbols

but calculated into adjusted scores)

=========================================================

Scotty Lightning · September 26

October!

DCA _NYC _BOS _ ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA

1.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.5 0.5 1.0 0.5

wxdude64 · September 29

On vacation, luckily remembered to do this today on wife's computer (didn't bring mine). Bad thing is 1-took a while to remember the website log-in and 2-couldn't remember my password. FINALLY got in, lol.

OK numbers for October

DCA: +0.6

NYC: +0.7

BOS: +0.3

ORD: -0.2

ATL: +0.8

IAH: +0.5

DEN: -0.4

PHX: -0.2

SEA: +0.7

Ephesians2 · September 29

DCA +4.3
NYC +3.8
BOS +3.5

ORD: +5.4

ATL: +4.0

IAH: +3.6

DEN: +1.0

PHX: +1.3

SEA: -0.5

hudsonvalley21 · September 29

DCA _NYC _BOS _ ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA

2.1 2.1 2.1 3.2 1.2 1.8 2.1 1.9 0.2

wxallannj · September 30

DCA _NYC _BOS _ ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA

2.3 2.4 2.5 2.0 1.8 2.3 1.0 0.7 0.4

Tom · September 30

DCA: +1.5

NYC: +1.6

BOS: +1.6

ORD: +2.8

ATL: +1.5

IAH: +1.1

DEN: +1.2

PHX: +1.1

SEA: +0.5

donsutherland1 · September 30

DCA _NYC _BOS _ ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA

2.5 2.6 2.5 5.4 1.7 1.7 3.2 2.6 0.2

Roger Smith · September 30

3.5 _ 4.0 _ 4.3 _ 5.2 _ 3.5 _ 3.5 _ 2.0 _ 2.0 _ 1.2

RodneyS · October 1

DCA _NYC _BOS _ ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA

0.1 1.7 1.6 3.8 0.6 3.0 1.6 0.6 0.9

Stormchaserchuck1 · October 1

Oops.. 1 hour late

DCA: +3.2

NYC: +3.5

BOS: +3.5

ORD: +5.7

ATL: +2.9

IAH: +2.5

DEN: +0.5

PHX: +0.2

SEA: 0.0

so_whats_happening · October 1

Oh boy a few hours late sorry

DCA _NYC _BOS _ ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA

+2 +2.3 +2.4 +3.5 +1.6 +2.1 +1.4 +1 +1.6

yoda · October 1

Just got off night shift... so a bit late as well

DCA: +1.8

NYC: +1.4

BOS: +1.3

ORD: +2.5

ATL: +1.7

IAH: +1.8

DEN: +1.3

PHX: +1.9

SEA: +0.3

Roger Smith · October 1

Nobody's all that late yet, will give a shout to RJay and BK, welcome to Ephesians2 also.

September scoring is updated and is in last post on page six (as I see it anyway). -- before the October forecasts, also the annual scoring is being updated, I've fallen a bit behind due to a poorly planned day of car work and no internet ... so getting back to it now, as you look in there you'll see some scores updated, some yet to come, all totals are already updated and order changed a little but not a lot.

Rjay · October 2

DCA: +3.0

NYC: +3.5

BOS: +3.5

ORD: +5.5

ATL: +2.0

IAH: +2.0

DEN: +2.0

PHX: 0.0

SEA: 0.0

bkviking · October 2

DCA: +1.6

NYC: +1.7

BOS: +1.7

ORD: +1.7

ATL: +1.5

IAH: +1.2

DEN: +1.0

PHX: +1.0

SEA: +0.8

Roger Smith · October 2

Thanks everyone, I will get a table of forecasts up as soon as possible ...

... meanwhile, this is the final report on the SEASONAL MAX contest. Winner is RJay, congrats.

Final scoring for Seasonal Max contest 2025

TABLE of ERRORS

_ _ _ _ errors in italics are forecasts lower than eventual result which is above the table

(actual) _________________ 99 __ 99 _102 ___ 95 _100 _101 ___100 _118 _ 94

FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS _ ORD_ATL_IAH _ DEN_PHX_SEA ___ TOTAL

RJay _____________________01 _ 02 _ 03 ____ 03 _ 00 _ 04 ___ 02 _ 01 _ 01 _____ 17

DonSutherland1 _________ 01 _ 01 _ 05 ____ 03 _ 02 _ 03 ___ 02 _ 01 _ 01 ______ 19

wxallannj ________________ 01 _ 03 _ 07 ____ 00 _ 02 _ 00 ___ 04 _ 01 _ 01 _____ 19

wxdude64 _______________01 _ 00 _ 04 ____ 04 _ 01 _ 05 ___ 04 _ 00 _ 02 _____ 21

___ Consensus __________02 _ 01 _ 04 ____05 _ 01 _ 04 ___ 02 _ 01 _ 01 _____ 21

hudsonvalley21 __________02 _ 01 _ 05 ____ 05 _ 01 _ 00 ___ 00 _ 05 _ 03 _____ 22

Tom _____________________02 _ 00 _ 04 ____ 07 _ 03 _ 04 ___ 01 _ 00 _ 02 _____ 23

so_whats_happening ____02 _ 02 _ 05 ____ 05 _ 01 _ 04 ___ 04 _ 00 _ 01 _____ 24

Scotty Lightning ________ 04 _ 01 _ 04 ____ 06 _ 03 _ 05 ___ 00 _ 03 _ 02 _____ 28

Roger Smith _____________03 _ 01 _ 02 ____ 06 _ 02 _ 06 ____07 _ 02 _ 05 _____ 34

_____________________________________

(actual forecasts)

FORECASTER ___________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA

Scotty Lightning ________ 103 _ 100 __ 98 ____ 101 _ 103 _ 106 ___ 100 _ 121 __ 92

Roger Smith _____________ 102 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 101 _ 102 _ 107 ____107 _ 120 __ 99

Tom _____________________ 101 __ 99 __ 98 ___ 102 _ 103 _ 105 ___ 101 _ 118 __ 96

hudsonvalley21 _________ 101 __ 98 __ 97 ____ 100 _ 101 _ 101 ____ 100 _ 123 __ 97

so_whats_happening ____ 101 __ 97 __ 97 ____ 100 __ 99 _ 105 ___104 _ 118 __ 93

___ Consensus __________101 __ 98 __ 98 ____ 100 _ 101 _ 105 ___ 102 _ 119 __ 95

wxdude64 ______________ 100 __ 99 __ 98 _____99 _ 101 _ 106 ___ 104 _ 118 __ 96

DonSutherland1 _________ 100 __ 98 __ 97 ____ 98 __ 98 _ 104 ___ 102 _ 117 __ 95

RJay _____________________100 __ 97 __ 99 _____ 98 _ 100 _ 105 ___ 102 _ 119 __ 95

wxallannj _________________98 __ 96 __ 95 _____ 95 __ 98 _ 101 ___ 104 _ 119 __ 93

so_whats_happening · October 2

As always thanks Roger. It is nice to see as a consensus we do pretty well!

Roger Smith · October 3

__ Table of forecasts for October 2025 __

FORECASTER __________ DCA _NYC _BOS _ORD _ATL _IAH __DEN _PHX _SEA

Ephesians2 ____________+4.3 _+3.8 _+3.5 _+5.4 _+4.0 _+3.6 _+1.0 _+1.3 _ -0.5

Roger Smith ___________ +3.5 _+4.0 _+4.3 _+5.2 _+3.5 _+3.5 _+2.0 _+2.0 _+1.2

StormchaserChuck1 ___ +3.2 _+3.5 _+3.5 _+5.7 _+2.9 _+2.5 _+0.5 _+0.2 __0.0

RJay ___________________ +3.0 _+3.5 _+3.5 _+5.5 _+2.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 __0.0 __0.0

DonSutherland1 ________ +2.5 _+2.6 _+2.5 _+5.4 _+1.7 _+1.7 _+3.2 _+2.6 _+0.2

wxallannj _______________+2.3 _+2.4 _+2.5 _ +2.0 _+1.8 _+2.3 _+1.0 _+0.7 _+0.4

hudsonvalley21 _________+2.1 _+2.1 _ +2.1 __ +3.2 _+1.2 _+1.8 _ +2.1 _+1.9 _+0.2

___ Consensus _________+2.1 _+2.2 _+2.3__+3.4_+1.7 _+1.9 _+1.3 _+1.1 _+0.5

so_whats_happening __ +2.0 _+2.3 _+2.4 _ +3.5 _+1.6 _+2.1 _ +1.4 _ +1.0 _ +1.6

yoda ___________________ +1.8 _+1.4 _+1.3 __+2.5 _ +1.7 _+1.8 _ +1.3 _ +1.9 _+0.3

BKViking _______________ +1.6 _+1.7 _+1.7 __+1.7 _+1.5 _+1.2 __+1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.8

Tom ____________________ +1.5 _+1.6 _+1.6 __+2.8 _+1.5 _+1.1 __+1.2 _ +1.1 _ +0.5

Scotty Lightning ________+1.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 __+1.0 _ +1.5 _+1.0 __+1.0 _+1.5 _+0.5

wxdude64 ______________+0.6 _+0.7 _+0.3 _-0.2 _+0.8 _+0.5__-0.4 _-0.2 _+0.7

RodneyS _______________ +0.1 _ +1.7 _+1.6 __+3.8 _+0.6 _+3.0 _+1.6 _+0.6 _+0.9

___ Normal ______________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ___0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ___0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

_______________

___ Persistence __(Sep) _-0.2 _+1.4 _+0.9 _+3.0 _+2.5 _+1.2 _-0.1 _+1.0 _+1.5

_______________

==============

warmest and coldest forecasts are color coded; Normal is colder than all forecasts for DCA, NYC, BOS, ATL and IAH.

Consensus is median value of 14 forecasts (not counting Persistence which is Sep 2025 anomalies, or Normal).

Roger Smith · October 3

I think the tied high score for September (Scotty and myself) is the first one since May 2023. There was a later case (Oct 2023) where high score was a little ahead of a second score with a late penalty, and a little behind the raw score before late penalty.

The final phase of this contest is going to be very interesting. Tom has a fairly comfortable lead but there are three or four others within striking distance. I think RodneyS, wxdude64, myself and StormchaserChuck have fallen a bit too far back to have any realistic chance, the rest of the regulars have a chance.

Roger Smith · Sunday at 06:46 PM

Anomalies and projections:

_______________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _ ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA

_____ (anom 1-18) _____-0.1 _ +1.0 _ +1.4 __ +7.9 _+4.1 _+5.2 __ +3.5 _-0.5 _-0.6

___ ( p anom 1-31) _____ 0.0 _+0.5 _ +1.0 __+5.0 _+3.5 _+5.0 __ +2.0 __0.0 _-1.0

(preliminary scoring estimates will follow ...)

Roger Smith · Sunday at 07:52 PM

__ Preliminary scoring estimates for October 2025 __

Estimates are based on latest posted end of month anomaly projections in previous post.

FORECASTER __________DCA_NYC_BOS_ east _ORD_ATL_IAH_ cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA_west__TOTAL

Ephesians2 ____________ 14 _ 34 _ 50 _098 _ 92 _ 90 _72 _252 _350_ 80 _ 74 _ 90 _244 __ 594

Roger Smith ___________ 30 _ 30 _ 34 _094 _ 96 _100_70_266 _360_100 _ 60 _ 56 _216 __ 576

StormchaserChuck1 ___ 36 _ 40 _ 50 _126 _ 86 _ 88 _ 50 _224 _350_ 70 _ 96 _ 80 _246 __ 596

RJay ___________________ 40 _ 40 _ 50 _130 _ 90 _ 70 _ 40 _200 _330_100_100_ 80 _280 __ 610

DonSutherland1 ________ 50 _ 58 _ 70 _178 _ 92 _ 64 _ 34 _ 190 _368 _76 _ 48 _ 76 _200 __ 568

wxallannj _______________54 _ 62 _ 70 _186 _ 40 _ 66 _ 46 _ 152 _338_ 80 _ 86 _ 72 _238 __ 576

hudsonvalley21 _________58 _ 68 _ 78 _204 _ 64 _ 54 _ 36 _ 154 _358 _98 _ 62 _ 76 _236 __ 594

___ Consensus _________58 _66 _ 74 _ 198 _ 68 _ 64 _ 38 _ 170 _368 _86 _ 78 _ 70 _234 __ 602

so_whats_happening ___60 _ 64 _ 72 _196 _ 70 _ 62 _ 42 _ 174 _370 _ 88 _ 80 _ 48 _216 __ 586

yoda ___________________ 64 _ 82 _ 94 _240 _ 50 _ 64 _ 36 _ 150 _390 _ 86 _ 62 _ 74 _222 __ 612

BKViking _______________ 68 _ 76 _ 86 _230 _ 34 _ 60 _ 24 _ 118 _348 _ 80 _ 80 _ 64 _224 __ 572

Tom ____________________ 70 _ 78 _ 88 _236 _ 56 _ 60 _ 22 _ 138 _374 _ 84 _ 78 _ 70 _232 __ 606

Scotty Lightning ________70 _ 90 _100_260 _ 20 _ 60 _ 20 _ 100 _360 _ 80 _ 70 _ 70 _ 220 __ 580

wxdude64 ______________88 _ 96 _ 86 _270 _ 00 _ 46 _ 10 _ 056 _326 _ 52 _ 96 _ 66 _ 214 __ 540

RodneyS _______________ 98 _ 76 _ 88 _262 _ 76 _ 42 _ 60 _ 178 _ 440 _ 92 _ 88 _ 62 _ 242 __ 682

___ Normal _____________100 _ 90 _ 80 _270 _ 00 _ 30 _ 00 _ 030 _ 300 _60 _100 _80 _240 __ 540

_______________

___ Persistence __(Sep) _ 96 _ 82 _ 98 _ 276 _ 60 _ 80 _ 24 _164 _440 _58 _ 80 _ 50 _188 __ 628

===================

EXTREME FORECASTS

(for the benefit of new forecasters, an extreme forecast is awarded when either most extreme or second most extreme forecast takes high score. Also, by contest convention, forecasters with fewer than three forecasts in a given year are eligible for these extreme forecasts but they are also scored for contest scoring purposes as if that forecast was not in play, and no loss is awarded when both win under the two systems. The same is true for best scores ... note Yoda has now entered enough contests to void the occasional entry rule).

DCA _ On current estimates, RodneyS (and Normal) have a win for lowest forecasts.

NYC _ On current estimates, wxdude64 has a win for lowest forecast.

BOS _ On current estimates, Scotty Lightning has a win, and wxdude64 a loss, for lowest forecasts.

ORD _ On current estimates, no extreme forecast would be awarded. The result will need to be +5.5 or higher. If it were +5.5, RJay would have a win, StormchaserChuck a loss. At +5.6 they would be tied, and at +5.7 or higher, it would be a win for SC.

ATL _ This could finish as wins for Ephesians2 and Roger Smith (regular forecast rule if result +3.8 or above), or a win for Roger Smith and loss for Ephesians 2 (if result +3.3 to +3.7), or a win for RodneyS and losses for Roger Smith and Ephesians 2 (if result +2.8 to +3.2).

IAH _ On current estimates, this would be scored as wins for Ephesians2 and Roger Smith (regular forecast rule).

DEN _ The current estimate of +2.0 is just below the value needed to consider a win-loss scenario (at +2.1 to +2.3, win for hudsonvalley21, and loss for DonSutherland, at +2.4 or above, a win for DonSutherland.

PHX _ On current estimates, a win for RJay (0.0) and Normal, and a loss for wxdude64 (-0.2). With third lowest forecast at +0.2, StormchaserChuck joins tie for win at +0.1, and forecast no longer "extreme" at +0.2 to +1.9.

SEA _ On current estimates, a win for Ephesians2 and also tied StormchaserChuck and RJay (and Normal) (regular forecast rule) ... would be a win for same regulars and loss for Ephesians2 at any outcome -0.2 to 0.0, no longer extreme at +0.1 or above.

__________________________________