2025 forecast contests -- enter for October 2025 contest (deadline 06z October 1st)

[Roger Smith]

=== ::: [] <<<<<<< Annual Scoring for Jan-Sep 2025 >>>>>>> [] ::: ===

 

 

FORECASTER _____DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH _ cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__west __TOTALS

 

___ Consensus ______589 _626 _650_ 1865__544 _622 _644_1810 _3675__623_664_742_2029 __5714

Tom __________________ 605 _630 _676 __1911 __550 _552 _658__1760 _3671 __686 _658 _684__2028___5699

hudsonvalley21 ______ 555 _622 _674 __1851 __494 _582 _647 __1723 __3574 __640 _634 _738__2012__5586

so_whats_happening __623 _662 _628 __1913 __550 _626 _575__1751__3664 __606 _582 _726__1914___5578

Scotty Lightning ______598 _ 656 _618 __ 1872__487 _526 _664__1677 _3549 __597 _702 _698__1997___5546

RJay _________________ 540 _641 _659 __ 1840 __588 _648 _638__1874 _3714 __529 _551 _631 __ 1711___5425 

DonSutherland1 ______ 529 _578 _624 __1731 __560 _596 _582__ 1738 _3469 __645 _616 _690__1951___5420

wxallannj _____________ 515 _554 _592 __1661 __514 _554 _618__ 1686 _ 3347 __634 _654 _679 __1967___5314

RodneyS _____________ 552 _560 _628 __1740 __394 _472 _576__1442 _3182 __561 _592 _822 __1975___ 5157

wxdude64 ____________496 _542 _560 __1598 __430_ 542 _580__1552 _3150__ 653 _646 _684__1983__ 5133

Roger Smith __________498 _584 _594 __1676 __562 _570 _588__1720 _3396 __448 _604 _673__ 1725___5121

StormchaserChuck ___559 _582 _600 __1741 __414 _614 _ 521__1549 _ 3290 __ 605 _612 _597 __ 1814___5104

___ Normal ____________528 _576 _586 __1690 __458 _386 _405__1249__2939__648 _546 _666__1860__4799

BKViking (7/9) _______ 366 _403 _439 __1208 __378 _486 _424__1288 _2496 __476 _480 _497__1453__3949

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - prorated total __5078

 

Yoda _(2/9) ____________094 _110 _110 __ 314 __ 124 _ 110 _ 188 __ 422 ___ 736 __168 _148 _168 ___ 484 ___1220

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- prorated total __5490

maxim (2/9) __________ 180 _ 152 _164 __ 496 ___ 96_ 120 _ 082 __298__ 794 __92 _ 90 _ 135__ 317 ____ 1111 

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - prorated total __5000

Persistence ___________320 _430 _560 __1310 ___286 _344 _566 _1196 _2506__470 _462 _636 __1568 ___4074

____________________________
________________________________

 

__ Best scores __ (updated for Sep)

 

^ incl tied for best score 

* incl 3 - 5 tied for best score

____________________ DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ORD_ATL_IAH_cent__c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__TOTALS

 

___ Consensus ______2*__0 __ 0 ___0 ___0  __0 __ 1  __0 __0 ___1 ___1 ___1 ___0 ___0

Tom ___________________2 *__ 1^ _ 2 ___1 ___ 2 ___2^ __2^___1 ___1 ___ 0 __ 2 ___2^___2 ___2 __ Mar,Jun

hudsonvalley21 ________ 1 *__ 2^__2 ___1 ___ 1 __ 1 __ 2^ ___0 __ 0 ___2^^__ 1 __ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0

so_whats_happening __ 1 *__ 1 __ 0 ___0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___ 2^__ 1^ __ 1 ___2 ___ 0

Scotty Lightning _______ 3^*__1^__ 1^___0 ___ 0 __1^__ 3 ___ 0 __0 ___ 0 __ 3*___1 ___1 ____1 _Sep(t)

RJay ___________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___0 ___ 2^__1^__ 2^^__3 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1*__ 1^___0 ___ 0

Don Sutherland 1 _______1 *__ 1^__ 1*__ 0 ___ 0 __1 ___0 ___ 0 __0 ___ 1 __ 1^ __ 0 ___0 ___ 0

wxallannj _______________1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1^ __ 1^__0 ___0 ____0

RodneyS _______________ 1 __ 1 __ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 __ 2^ __1^ __ 2 ___ 2 ___1 __ 1 ___ 4^___1 ____2 _ May,Aug

wxdude64 ______________1 __ 2^__ 1*___2 ___ 0 __0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 2 ___0 __0___ 0 ____1 _ Jan

Roger Smith ____________1^ __3^^__2^ __2 ___3 ___3^^__2^^__ 1 ___2 ___0 __ 1^__ 0 ___1 ____3 _ Feb,Jul,Sep(t)

StormchaserChuck _____1 __ 1^__ 1 ____2 ___ 1^__ 1 ___1 ___ 0 ___1 ___ 0 ___0 __ 1^___ 1 ____0 _Apr

BKViking _______________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___0 ___ 0 __ 1 ___0 ___ 2 __ 1 ____1 ___ 1*__0 ___0 ___0

___ Normal ______________ 1 __ 2 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __0 ___ 2 __ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 ____0

maxim __________________ 1 __ 0 __ 1* ___0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __0 ___1 ___ 1 __ 0 ___1 ___ 0

==============================

(tie for Consensus or Normal is not a tie for forecaster(s)) 

 

Extreme forecasts  _ updated for Sep

So far, 46 of 81 ... 23 for warmest and 23 for coldest ... Jan 1-4, Feb 1-4, Mar 5-0, Apr 6-0, May 2-6, Jun 1-1, Jul 1-1, Aug 1-6 and Sep 5-1.

 

Forecaster ____________ Jan _Feb _Mar _Apr _May _Jun_Jul _Aug __ Total___adj for ties (*2 tied, ^3 tied)

 

Rodney S ______________ 2-1 _1*-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _3*0 _0-1_0-0 _4-0 _1-0 __11-2 ___10.0 - 2.0

Roger Smith ___________ 0-0 _3-1 _ 0-1 _ 1*0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _1*-0_1*-0_4^-0__12-2___8.0 - 2.0

___ Normal _____________ 1-0 _0-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 __ 2-0 _0-1 _1-0 __2-0 _1-0 __ 7-2 ___ 7.0 - 2.0

Scotty Lightning _______ 1-0 _0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0_0-0_ 0-1 _3^-0 __8-1 ____ 6.5 - 1.0

hudsonvalley21 _________1*-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 1-1 _ 0-0_ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 __4-1 ___3.5 - 0.0

Stormchaser Chuck ____ 0-0 _0-0 _0-1 _ 4*-2 _0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 __4-3 ___ 3.5 - 3.0

maxim __________________1^-0_0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 __3-0 ___ 2.33-0.0

Tom ____________________0-0 _0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 2*0 _ 0-0_0-0 _0-0_1*-0 __ 4-0 ___ 3.0 - 0.0

wxdude64 ______________1^-0_ 0-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0_0-0 __1-0 _0-1 __ 3-1 ____2.33-1.0

RJay ____________________0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _2**-0_0-0 _ 0-0_1 *-0_0-0_1*-0 _ 4-0 ___ 2.0-0.0

so_whats_happening ___ 1*-0 _1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 __0-0_1-0 __0-0 _0-0__3-0 ___ 2.0 - 0.0

Don Sutherland _________1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0_0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 __2-0 ____1.33-0.0

BKViking _______________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 __1-0 ____1.0 - 0.0

wxallannj _______________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _1*-0_0-0__1-0 ___ 0.5 - 0.0

^ (note: For Sep wins, Roger Smith and Scotty Lightning tied three, not shown by * symbols

but calculated into adjusted scores)

=========================================================

 

 

[Scotty Lightning]

October!

 

DCA _NYC _BOS _ ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA

1.5       1.0      1.0      1.0     1.5     1.5       0.5     1.0     0.5 

 

[wxdude64]

On vacation, luckily remembered to do this today on wife's computer (didn't bring mine). Bad thing is 1-took a while to remember the website log-in and 2-couldn't remember my password. FINALLY got in, lol. 

OK numbers for October

DCA: +0.6

NYC: +0.7

BOS: +0.3

ORD: -0.2

ATL:  +0.8

IAH: +0.5

DEN: -0.4

PHX: -0.2

SEA: +0.7

[Ephesians2]

DCA +4.3
NYC +3.8
BOS +3.5

ORD: +5.4

ATL: +4.0

IAH: +3.6

DEN: +1.0

PHX: +1.3

SEA: -0.5

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA _NYC _BOS _ ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA

 2.1      2.1       2.1      3.2     1.2     1.8       2.1     1.9     0.2  

[wxallannj]

DCA _NYC _BOS _ ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA

 2.3     2.4      2.5      2.0     1.8     2.3     1.0      0.7     0.4  

[Tom]

DCA: +1.5

NYC: +1.6

BOS: +1.6

ORD: +2.8

ATL:  +1.5

IAH: +1.1

DEN: +1.2

PHX: +1.1

SEA: +0.5

[donsutherland1]

DCA _NYC _BOS _ ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA

2.5      2.6    2.5      5.4    1.7     1.7        3.2    2.6     0.2 

[Roger Smith]

3.5 _ 4.0 _ 4.3 _ 5.2 _ 3.5 _ 3.5 _ 2.0 _ 2.0 _ 1.2

[RodneyS]

DCA _NYC _BOS _ ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA

0.1       1.7      1.6      3.8     0.6    3.0      1.6     0.6     0.9 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Oops.. 1 hour late

DCA: +3.2

NYC: +3.5

BOS: +3.5

ORD: +5.7

ATL:  +2.9

IAH: +2.5

DEN: +0.5

PHX: +0.2

SEA: 0.0

[so_whats_happening]

Oh boy a few hours late sorry

DCA _NYC _BOS _ ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA

+2     +2.3   +2.4   +3.5   +1.6  +2.1    +1.4     +1    +1.6

[yoda]

Just got off night shift... so a bit late as well

 

DCA: +1.8

NYC: +1.4

BOS: +1.3

ORD: +2.5

ATL:  +1.7

IAH: +1.8

DEN: +1.3

PHX: +1.9

SEA: +0.3

[Roger Smith]

Nobody's all that late yet, will give a shout to RJay and BK, welcome to Ephesians2 also.

September scoring is updated and is in last post on page six (as I see it anyway). -- before the October forecasts, also the annual scoring is being updated, I've fallen a bit behind due to a poorly planned day of car work and no internet ... so getting back to it now, as you look in there you'll see some scores updated, some yet to come, all totals are already updated and order changed a little but not a lot. 

[Rjay]

DCA: +3.0

 

NYC: +3.5

 

BOS: +3.5

 

ORD: +5.5

 

ATL: +2.0

 

IAH: +2.0

 

DEN: +2.0

 

PHX: 0.0

 

SEA: 0.0

[bkviking]

DCA: +1.6

NYC: +1.7

BOS: +1.7

ORD: +1.7

ATL:  +1.5

IAH: +1.2

DEN: +1.0

PHX: +1.0

SEA: +0.8

[Roger Smith]

Thanks everyone, I will get a table of forecasts up as soon as possible ...

... meanwhile, this is the final report on the SEASONAL MAX contest. Winner is RJay, congrats. 

 

Final scoring for Seasonal Max contest 2025

 

TABLE of ERRORS 

_ _ _ _ errors in italics are forecasts lower than eventual result which is above the table

 

(actual) _________________ 99 __ 99 _102 ___ 95 _100 _101 ___100 _118 _ 94

 

FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS _ ORD_ATL_IAH _ DEN_PHX_SEA ___ TOTAL

RJay _____________________01 _ 02 _ 03 ____ 03 _ 00 _ 04 ___ 02 _ 01 _ 01 _____ 17

DonSutherland1 _________ 01 _ 01 _ 05 ____ 03 _ 02 _ 03 ___ 02 _ 01 _ 01 ______ 19

wxallannj ________________ 01 _ 03 _ 07 ____ 00 _ 02 _ 00 ___ 04 _ 01 _ 01 _____ 19

wxdude64 _______________01 _ 00 _ 04 ____ 04 _ 01 _ 05 ___ 04 _ 00 _ 02 _____ 21

___ Consensus __________02 _  01 _ 04 ____05 _ 01 _ 04 ___ 02 _ 01 _ 01 _____ 21 

hudsonvalley21 __________02 _ 01 _ 05 ____ 05 _ 01 _ 00 ___ 00 _ 05 _ 03 _____ 22

Tom _____________________02 _ 00 _ 04 ____ 07 _ 03 _ 04 ___ 01 _ 00 _ 02 _____ 23

so_whats_happening ____02 _ 02 _ 05 ____ 05 _ 01 _ 04 ___ 04 _ 00 _ 01 _____ 24 

Scotty Lightning ________ 04 _ 01 _ 04 ____ 06 _ 03 _ 05 ___ 00 _ 03 _ 02 _____ 28 

Roger Smith _____________03 _ 01 _ 02 ____ 06 _ 02 _ 06 ____07 _ 02 _ 05 _____ 34

_____________________________________

(actual forecasts)

 

FORECASTER ___________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA

Scotty Lightning ________ 103 _ 100 __ 98 ____ 101 _ 103 _ 106 ___ 100 _ 121 __ 92 

Roger Smith _____________ 102 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 101 _ 102 _ 107 ____107 _ 120 __ 99

Tom _____________________ 101 __ 99 __ 98 ___ 102 _ 103 _ 105 ___ 101 _ 118 __ 96

hudsonvalley21 _________ 101 __ 98 __ 97 ____ 100 _ 101 _ 101 ____ 100 _ 123 __ 97

so_whats_happening ____ 101 __ 97 __ 97 ____ 100 __ 99 _ 105 ___104 _ 118 __ 93

___ Consensus __________101 __ 98 __ 98 ____ 100 _ 101 _ 105 ___ 102 _ 119 __ 95

wxdude64 ______________ 100 __ 99 __ 98 _____99 _ 101 _ 106 ___ 104 _ 118 __ 96

DonSutherland1 _________ 100 __ 98 __ 97 ____ 98 __ 98 _ 104 ___ 102 _ 117 __ 95

RJay _____________________100 __ 97 __ 99 _____ 98 _ 100 _ 105 ___ 102 _ 119 __ 95

wxallannj _________________98 __ 96 __ 95 _____ 95 __ 98 _ 101 ___ 104 _ 119 __ 93