Roger Smith Posted September 25 Author Share Posted September 25 === ::: [] <<<<<<< Annual Scoring for Jan-Sep 2025 >>>>>>> [] ::: === FORECASTER _____DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH _ cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__west __TOTALS ___ Consensus ______589 _626 _650_ 1865__544 _622 _644_1810 _3675__623_664_742_2029 __5704 Tom __________________ 605 _630 _676 __1911 __550 _552 _658__1760 _3671 __686 _658 _684__2028___5699 hudsonvalley21 ______ 555 _622 _674 __1851 __494 _582 _647 __1723 __3574 __640 _634 _738__2012__5586 so_whats_happening __623 _662 _628 __1913 __550 _626 _575__1751__3664 __606 _582 _726__1914___5578 Scotty Lightning ______598 _ 656 _618 __ 1872__487 _526 _664__1677 _3549 __597 _702 _698__1997___5546 RJay _________________ 540 _641 _659 __ 1840 __588 _648 _638__1874 _3714 __529 _551 _631 __ 1711___5425 DonSutherland1 ______ 529 _578 _624 __1731 __560 _596 _582__ 1738 _3469 __645 _616 _690__1951___5420 wxallannj _____________ 515 _554 _592 __1661 __514 _554 _618__ 1686 _ 3347 __634 _654 _679 __1967___5314 RodneyS _____________ 552 _560 _628 __1740 __394 _472 _576__1442 _3182 __561 _592 _822 __1975___ 5157 wxdude64 ____________496 _542 _560 __1598 __430_ 542 _580__1552 _3150__ 653 _646 _684__1983__ 5133 Roger Smith __________498 _584 _594 __1676 __562 _570 _588__1720 _3396 __448 _604 _673__ 1725___5121 StormchaserChuck ___559 _582 _600 __1741 __414 _614 _ 521__1549 _ 3290 __ 605 _612 _597 __ 1814___5104 ___ Normal ____________528 _576 _586 __1690 __458 _386 _405__1249__2939__648 _546 _666__1860__4799 BKViking (7/9) _______ 366 _403 _439 __1208 __378 _486 _424__1288 _2496 __476 _480 _497__1453__3949 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - prorated total __5078 Yoda _(2/9) ____________094 _110 _110 __ 314 __ 124 _ 110 _ 188 __ 422 ___ 736 __168 _148 _168 ___ 484 ___1220 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- prorated total __5490 maxim (2/9) __________ 180 _ 152 _164 __ 496 ___ 96_ 120 _ 082 __298__ 794 __92 _ 90 _ 135__ 317 ____ 1111 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - prorated total __5000 Persistence ___________320 _430 _560 __1310 ___286 _344 _566 _1196 _2506__470 _462 _636 __1568 ___4074 ____________________________ ________________________________ __ Best scores __ (updated for Sep) ^ incl tied for best score * incl 3 - 5 tied for best score ____________________ DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ORD_ATL_IAH_cent__c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__TOTALS ___ Consensus ______2*__0 __ 0 ___0 ___0 __0 __ 1 __0 __0 ___1 ___1 ___1 ___0 ___0 Tom ___________________2 *__ 1^ _ 2 ___1 ___ 2 ___2^ __2^___1 ___1 ___ 0 __ 2 ___2^___2 ___2 __ Mar,Jun hudsonvalley21 ________ 1 *__ 2^__2 ___1 ___ 1 __ 1 __ 2^ ___0 __ 0 ___2^^__ 1 __ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 so_whats_happening __ 1 *__ 1 __ 0 ___0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___ 2^__ 1^ __ 1 ___2 ___ 0 Scotty Lightning _______ 3^*__1^__ 1^___0 ___ 0 __1^__ 3 ___ 0 __0 ___ 0 __ 3*___1 ___1 ____1 _Sep(t) RJay ___________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___0 ___ 2^__1^__ 2^^__3 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1*__ 1^___0 ___ 0 Don Sutherland 1 _______1 *__ 1^__ 1*__ 0 ___ 0 __1 ___0 ___ 0 __0 ___ 1 __ 1^ __ 0 ___0 ___ 0 wxallannj _______________1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1^ __ 1^__0 ___0 ____0 RodneyS _______________ 1 __ 1 __ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 __ 2^ __1^ __ 2 ___ 2 ___1 __ 1 ___ 4^___1 ____2 _ May,Aug wxdude64 ______________1 __ 2^__ 1*___2 ___ 0 __0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 2 ___0 __0___ 0 ____1 _ Jan Roger Smith ____________1^ __3^^__2^ __2 ___3 ___3^^__2^^__ 1 ___2 ___0 __ 1^__ 0 ___1 ____3 _ Feb,Jul,Sep(t) StormchaserChuck _____1 __ 1^__ 1 ____2 ___ 1^__ 1 ___1 ___ 0 ___1 ___ 0 ___0 __ 1^___ 1 ____0 _Apr BKViking _______________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___0 ___ 0 __ 1 ___0 ___ 2 __ 1 ____1 ___ 1*__0 ___0 ___0 ___ Normal ______________ 1 __ 2 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __0 ___ 2 __ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 ____0 maxim __________________ 1 __ 0 __ 1* ___0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __0 ___1 ___ 1 __ 0 ___1 ___ 0 ============================== (tie for Consensus or Normal is not a tie for forecaster(s)) Extreme forecasts _ updated for Sep So far, 46 of 81 ... 23 for warmest and 23 for coldest ... Jan 1-4, Feb 1-4, Mar 5-0, Apr 6-0, May 2-6, Jun 1-1, Jul 1-1, Aug 1-6 and Sep 5-1. Forecaster ____________ Jan _Feb _Mar _Apr _May _Jun_Jul _Aug __ Total___adj for ties (*2 tied, ^3 tied) Rodney S ______________ 2-1 _1*-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _3*0 _0-1_0-0 _4-0 _1-0 __11-2 ___10.0 - 2.0 Roger Smith ___________ 0-0 _3-1 _ 0-1 _ 1*0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _1*-0_1*-0_4^-0__12-2___8.0 - 2.0 ___ Normal _____________ 1-0 _0-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 __ 2-0 _0-1 _1-0 __2-0 _1-0 __ 7-2 ___ 7.0 - 2.0 Scotty Lightning _______ 1-0 _0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0_0-0_ 0-1 _3^-0 __8-1 ____ 6.5 - 1.0 hudsonvalley21 _________1*-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 1-1 _ 0-0_ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 __4-1 ___3.5 - 0.0 Stormchaser Chuck ____ 0-0 _0-0 _0-1 _ 4*-2 _0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 __4-3 ___ 3.5 - 3.0 maxim __________________1^-0_0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 __3-0 ___ 2.33-0.0 Tom ____________________0-0 _0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 2*0 _ 0-0_0-0 _0-0_1*-0 __ 4-0 ___ 3.0 - 0.0 wxdude64 ______________1^-0_ 0-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0_0-0 __1-0 _0-1 __ 3-1 ____2.33-1.0 RJay ____________________0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _2**-0_0-0 _ 0-0_1 *-0_0-0_1*-0 _ 4-0 ___ 2.0-0.0 so_whats_happening ___ 1*-0 _1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 __0-0_1-0 __0-0 _0-0__3-0 ___ 2.0 - 0.0 Don Sutherland _________1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0_0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 __2-0 ____1.33-0.0 BKViking _______________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 __1-0 ____1.0 - 0.0 wxallannj _______________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _1*-0_0-0__1-0 ___ 0.5 - 0.0 ^ (note: For Sep wins, Roger Smith and Scotty Lightning tied three, not shown by * symbols but calculated into adjusted scores) ========================================================= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotty Lightning Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 October! DCA _NYC _BOS _ ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.5 0.5 1.0 0.5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted September 29 Share Posted September 29 On vacation, luckily remembered to do this today on wife's computer (didn't bring mine). Bad thing is 1-took a while to remember the website log-in and 2-couldn't remember my password. FINALLY got in, lol. OK numbers for October DCA: +0.6 NYC: +0.7 BOS: +0.3 ORD: -0.2 ATL: +0.8 IAH: +0.5 DEN: -0.4 PHX: -0.2 SEA: +0.7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted September 29 Share Posted September 29 DCA +4.3 NYC +3.8 BOS +3.5 ORD: +5.4 ATL: +4.0 IAH: +3.6 DEN: +1.0 PHX: +1.3 SEA: -0.5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted September 29 Share Posted September 29 DCA _NYC _BOS _ ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA 2.1 2.1 2.1 3.2 1.2 1.8 2.1 1.9 0.2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxallannj Posted September 30 Share Posted September 30 DCA _NYC _BOS _ ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.0 1.8 2.3 1.0 0.7 0.4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 30 Share Posted September 30 DCA: +1.5 NYC: +1.6 BOS: +1.6 ORD: +2.8 ATL: +1.5 IAH: +1.1 DEN: +1.2 PHX: +1.1 SEA: +0.5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 30 Share Posted September 30 DCA _NYC _BOS _ ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA 2.5 2.6 2.5 5.4 1.7 1.7 3.2 2.6 0.2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted September 30 Author Share Posted September 30 3.5 _ 4.0 _ 4.3 _ 5.2 _ 3.5 _ 3.5 _ 2.0 _ 2.0 _ 1.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted October 1 Share Posted October 1 DCA _NYC _BOS _ ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA 0.1 1.7 1.6 3.8 0.6 3.0 1.6 0.6 0.9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted October 1 Share Posted October 1 Oops.. 1 hour late DCA: +3.2 NYC: +3.5 BOS: +3.5 ORD: +5.7 ATL: +2.9 IAH: +2.5 DEN: +0.5 PHX: +0.2 SEA: 0.0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted October 1 Share Posted October 1 Oh boy a few hours late sorry DCA _NYC _BOS _ ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA +2 +2.3 +2.4 +3.5 +1.6 +2.1 +1.4 +1 +1.6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 1 Share Posted October 1 Just got off night shift... so a bit late as well DCA: +1.8 NYC: +1.4 BOS: +1.3 ORD: +2.5 ATL: +1.7 IAH: +1.8 DEN: +1.3 PHX: +1.9 SEA: +0.3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 1 Author Share Posted October 1 Nobody's all that late yet, will give a shout to RJay and BK, welcome to Ephesians2 also. September scoring is updated and is in last post on page six (as I see it anyway). -- before the October forecasts, also the annual scoring is being updated, I've fallen a bit behind due to a poorly planned day of car work and no internet ... so getting back to it now, as you look in there you'll see some scores updated, some yet to come, all totals are already updated and order changed a little but not a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 2 Share Posted October 2 DCA: +3.0 NYC: +3.5 BOS: +3.5 ORD: +5.5 ATL: +2.0 IAH: +2.0 DEN: +2.0 PHX: 0.0 SEA: 0.0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted October 2 Share Posted October 2 DCA: +1.6 NYC: +1.7 BOS: +1.7 ORD: +1.7 ATL: +1.5 IAH: +1.2 DEN: +1.0 PHX: +1.0 SEA: +0.8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 2 Author Share Posted October 2 Thanks everyone, I will get a table of forecasts up as soon as possible ... ... meanwhile, this is the final report on the SEASONAL MAX contest. Winner is RJay, congrats. Final scoring for Seasonal Max contest 2025 TABLE of ERRORS _ _ _ _ errors in italics are forecasts lower than eventual result which is above the table (actual) _________________ 99 __ 99 _102 ___ 95 _100 _101 ___100 _118 _ 94 FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS _ ORD_ATL_IAH _ DEN_PHX_SEA ___ TOTAL RJay _____________________01 _ 02 _ 03 ____ 03 _ 00 _ 04 ___ 02 _ 01 _ 01 _____ 17 DonSutherland1 _________ 01 _ 01 _ 05 ____ 03 _ 02 _ 03 ___ 02 _ 01 _ 01 ______ 19 wxallannj ________________ 01 _ 03 _ 07 ____ 00 _ 02 _ 00 ___ 04 _ 01 _ 01 _____ 19 wxdude64 _______________01 _ 00 _ 04 ____ 04 _ 01 _ 05 ___ 04 _ 00 _ 02 _____ 21 ___ Consensus __________02 _ 01 _ 04 ____05 _ 01 _ 04 ___ 02 _ 01 _ 01 _____ 21 hudsonvalley21 __________02 _ 01 _ 05 ____ 05 _ 01 _ 00 ___ 00 _ 05 _ 03 _____ 22 Tom _____________________02 _ 00 _ 04 ____ 07 _ 03 _ 04 ___ 01 _ 00 _ 02 _____ 23 so_whats_happening ____02 _ 02 _ 05 ____ 05 _ 01 _ 04 ___ 04 _ 00 _ 01 _____ 24 Scotty Lightning ________ 04 _ 01 _ 04 ____ 06 _ 03 _ 05 ___ 00 _ 03 _ 02 _____ 28 Roger Smith _____________03 _ 01 _ 02 ____ 06 _ 02 _ 06 ____07 _ 02 _ 05 _____ 34 _____________________________________ (actual forecasts) FORECASTER ___________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA Scotty Lightning ________ 103 _ 100 __ 98 ____ 101 _ 103 _ 106 ___ 100 _ 121 __ 92 Roger Smith _____________ 102 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 101 _ 102 _ 107 ____107 _ 120 __ 99 Tom _____________________ 101 __ 99 __ 98 ___ 102 _ 103 _ 105 ___ 101 _ 118 __ 96 hudsonvalley21 _________ 101 __ 98 __ 97 ____ 100 _ 101 _ 101 ____ 100 _ 123 __ 97 so_whats_happening ____ 101 __ 97 __ 97 ____ 100 __ 99 _ 105 ___104 _ 118 __ 93 ___ Consensus __________101 __ 98 __ 98 ____ 100 _ 101 _ 105 ___ 102 _ 119 __ 95 wxdude64 ______________ 100 __ 99 __ 98 _____99 _ 101 _ 106 ___ 104 _ 118 __ 96 DonSutherland1 _________ 100 __ 98 __ 97 ____ 98 __ 98 _ 104 ___ 102 _ 117 __ 95 RJay _____________________100 __ 97 __ 99 _____ 98 _ 100 _ 105 ___ 102 _ 119 __ 95 wxallannj _________________98 __ 96 __ 95 _____ 95 __ 98 _ 101 ___ 104 _ 119 __ 93 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted October 2 Share Posted October 2 As always thanks Roger. It is nice to see as a consensus we do pretty well! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 3 Author Share Posted October 3 __ Table of forecasts for October 2025 __ FORECASTER __________ DCA _NYC _BOS _ORD _ATL _IAH __DEN _PHX _SEA Ephesians2 ____________+4.3 _+3.8 _+3.5 _+5.4 _+4.0 _+3.6 _+1.0 _+1.3 _ -0.5 Roger Smith ___________ +3.5 _+4.0 _+4.3 _+5.2 _+3.5 _+3.5 _+2.0 _+2.0 _+1.2 StormchaserChuck1 ___ +3.2 _+3.5 _+3.5 _+5.7 _+2.9 _+2.5 _+0.5 _+0.2 __0.0 RJay ___________________ +3.0 _+3.5 _+3.5 _+5.5 _+2.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 __0.0 __0.0 DonSutherland1 ________ +2.5 _+2.6 _+2.5 _+5.4 _+1.7 _+1.7 _+3.2 _+2.6 _+0.2 wxallannj _______________+2.3 _+2.4 _+2.5 _ +2.0 _+1.8 _+2.3 _+1.0 _+0.7 _+0.4 hudsonvalley21 _________+2.1 _+2.1 _ +2.1 __ +3.2 _+1.2 _+1.8 _ +2.1 _+1.9 _+0.2 ___ Consensus _________+2.1 _+2.2 _+2.3__+3.4_+1.7 _+1.9 _+1.3 _+1.1 _+0.5 so_whats_happening __ +2.0 _+2.3 _+2.4 _ +3.5 _+1.6 _+2.1 _ +1.4 _ +1.0 _ +1.6 yoda ___________________ +1.8 _+1.4 _+1.3 __+2.5 _ +1.7 _+1.8 _ +1.3 _ +1.9 _+0.3 BKViking _______________ +1.6 _+1.7 _+1.7 __+1.7 _+1.5 _+1.2 __+1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.8 Tom ____________________ +1.5 _+1.6 _+1.6 __+2.8 _+1.5 _+1.1 __+1.2 _ +1.1 _ +0.5 Scotty Lightning ________+1.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 __+1.0 _ +1.5 _+1.0 __+1.0 _+1.5 _+0.5 wxdude64 ______________+0.6 _+0.7 _+0.3 _-0.2 _+0.8 _+0.5__-0.4 _-0.2 _+0.7 RodneyS _______________ +0.1 _ +1.7 _+1.6 __+3.8 _+0.6 _+3.0 _+1.6 _+0.6 _+0.9 ___ Normal ______________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ___0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ___0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _______________ ___ Persistence __(Sep) _-0.2 _+1.4 _+0.9 _+3.0 _+2.5 _+1.2 _-0.1 _+1.0 _+1.5 _______________ ============== warmest and coldest forecasts are color coded; Normal is colder than all forecasts for DCA, NYC, BOS, ATL and IAH. Consensus is median value of 14 forecasts (not counting Persistence which is Sep 2025 anomalies, or Normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 3 Author Share Posted October 3 I think the tied high score for September (Scotty and myself) is the first one since May 2023. There was a later case (Oct 2023) where high score was a little ahead of a second score with a late penalty, and a little behind the raw score before late penalty. The final phase of this contest is going to be very interesting. Tom has a fairly comfortable lead but there are three or four others within striking distance. I think RodneyS, wxdude64, myself and StormchaserChuck have fallen a bit too far back to have any realistic chance, the rest of the regulars have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 19 Author Share Posted October 19 Anomalies and projections: _______________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _ ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA _____ (anom 1-18) _____-0.1 _ +1.0 _ +1.4 __ +7.9 _+4.1 _+5.2 __ +3.5 _-0.5 _-0.6 ___ ( p anom 1-31) _____ 0.0 _+0.5 _ +1.0 __+5.0 _+3.5 _+5.0 __ +2.0 __0.0 _-1.0 ___ final anomalies ____-0.5 _+0.6 _+1.6 __ +4.1 _+1.3 _+4.2 __ +2.4 _+0.9 _-0.5 Final anomalies posted on Oct 31 are now end of month. Scoring was adjusted to previous estimates before final values posted. ATL got quite chilly near the end and scores there have changed substantially. Some of the other changes basically mean everyone gets a higher score, or a majority do so. Scoring is now fully adjusted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 19 Author Share Posted October 19 ____ Final scoring estimates for October 2025 ____ Scores are based on final second set of end of month anomaly reports in previous post. FORECASTER __________DCA_NYC_BOS_ east _ORD_ATL_IAH_ cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA_west__TOTAL RodneyS _______________ 88 _ 78 _100 _266 _ 94 _ 86 _ 76 _ 256 _522 _ 84 _ 94 _72 _250__772 Tom ____________________ 60 _ 80 _100 _240 _ 74 _ 96 _ 38 _ 208 _448 _ 76 _ 96 _ 80 _252 __700 hudsonvalley21 _________48 _ 70 _ 90 _208 _ 82 _ 98 _ 52 _ 232 _440 _94 _ 80 _ 86 _260 __700 ___ Consensus _________48 _68 _ 86 _ 202 _ 86 _ 92 _ 54 _232 _434 _78 _ 96 _ 80 _254 __ 688 yoda ___________________ 54 _ 84 _ 94 _232 _ 68 _ 92 _ 52 _ 212 _444 _ 78 _ 80 _ 84 _242 __ 686 so_whats_happening ___ 50 _ 66 _ 84 _200 _ 88 _ 94 _ 58 _ 240 _440 _ 80 _98_ 58 _236 __ 676 BKViking _______________ 58 _ 78 _ 98 _234 _ 52 _ 96 _ 40 _ 188 _422 _ 72 _ 98_ 74 _244 __ 666 wxallannj _______________ 44 _ 64 _ 82 _190 _ 58 _ 90 _ 62 _ 210 _400_ 72 _ 96 _ 82 _250 __ 650 Scotty Lightning ________60 _ 92 _ 88 _240 _ 38 _ 96 _ 36 _ 170 _ 410 _ 72 _ 88 _ 80 _ 240 __650 DonSutherland1 ________ 40 _ 60 _ 82 _182 _ 74 _ 92 _ 50 _ 216 _398 _ 84 _ 66 _ 86 _236 __634 RJay ___________________ 30 _ 42 _ 62 _134 _ 72 _ 86 _ 56 _214 _ 348 _ 92_ 82 _ 90 _264 __ 612 ___ Normal _____________ 90 _ 88 _ 68 _ 246 _ 18 _ 74 _ 16 __108 _354 _ 52 _ 82 _ 90 _224 __578 wxdude64 ______________78 _ 98 _ 74 _250 _ 14 _ 90 _ 26 _ 130 _380 _ 44 _ 78 _ 76 _ 198 __578 Ephesians2 ____________ 04 _ 36 _ 62 _102 _ 74 _ 46 _88 _208 _310_ 72 _ 92 _100 _264 __ 574 StormchaserChuck1 ___ 26 _ 42 _ 62 _130 _ 68 _ 68 _ 66 _202 _332_ 62 _ 86 _ 90 _238 __ 570 Roger Smith ___________ 20 _ 32 _ 46 _098 _ 78 _ 56 _86_ 220 _318 _ 92 _ 78 _ 66 _236 __ 554 _______________ ___ Persistence __(Sep) _ 94 _ 84 _ 86_ 264 _ 78 _ 76 _ 40 _194 _458 _50 _ 98_ 60 _208 __ 666 =================== EXTREME FORECASTS (for the benefit of new forecasters, an extreme forecast is awarded when either most extreme or second most extreme forecast takes high score. Also, by contest convention, forecasters with fewer than three forecasts in a given year are eligible for these extreme forecasts but they are also scored for contest scoring purposes as if that forecast was not in play, and no loss is awarded when both win under the two systems. The same is true for best scores ... note Yoda has now entered enough contests to void the occasional entry rule). DCA _ RodneyS (and Normal) have a win for lowest forecasts. NYC _ wxdude64 has a win for lowest forecast. BOS, ORD, ATL, PHX _ do not qualify for an extreme forecast. IAH _ Scored as wins for Ephesians2 and Roger Smith (regular forecast rule). DEN (+2.4) _ Win for hudsonvalley21 (+2.1), and loss for DonSutherland (+3.2). SEA _ A win for Ephesians2 and also tied StormchaserChuck and RJay (and Normal) (regular forecast rule) __________________________________ (actual forecasts) FORECASTER __________ DCA _NYC _BOS _ORD _ATL _IAH __DEN _PHX _SEA Ephesians2 ____________+4.3 _+3.8 _+3.5 _+5.4 _+4.0 _+3.6 _+1.0 _+1.3 _ -0.5 Roger Smith ___________ +3.5 _+4.0 _+4.3 _+5.2 _+3.5 _+3.5 _+2.0 _+2.0 _+1.2 StormchaserChuck1 ___ +3.2 _+3.5 _+3.5 _+5.7 _+2.9 _+2.5 _+0.5 _+0.2 __0.0 RJay ___________________ +3.0 _+3.5 _+3.5 _+5.5 _+2.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 __0.0 __0.0 DonSutherland1 ________ +2.5 _+2.6 _+2.5 _+5.4 _+1.7 _+1.7 _+3.2 _+2.6 _+0.2 wxallannj _______________+2.3 _+2.4 _+2.5 _ +2.0 _+1.8 _+2.3 _+1.0 _+0.7 _+0.4 hudsonvalley21 _________+2.1 _+2.1 _ +2.1 __ +3.2 _+1.2 _+1.8 _ +2.1 _+1.9 _+0.2 ___ Consensus _________+2.1 _+2.2 _+2.3__+3.4_+1.7 _+1.9 _+1.3 _+1.1 _+0.5 so_whats_happening __ +2.0 _+2.3 _+2.4 _ +3.5 _+1.6 _+2.1 _ +1.4 _ +1.0 _ +1.6 yoda ___________________ +1.8 _+1.4 _+1.3 __+2.5 _ +1.7 _+1.8 _ +1.3 _ +1.9 _+0.3 BKViking _______________ +1.6 _+1.7 _+1.7 __+1.7 _+1.5 _+1.2 __+1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.8 Tom ____________________ +1.5 _+1.6 _+1.6 __+2.8 _+1.5 _+1.1 __+1.2 _ +1.1 _ +0.5 Scotty Lightning ________+1.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 __+1.0 _ +1.5 _+1.0 __+1.0 _+1.5 _+0.5 wxdude64 ______________+0.6 _+0.7 _+0.3 _-0.2 _+0.8 _+0.5__-0.4 _-0.2 _+0.7 RodneyS _______________ +0.1 _ +1.7 _+1.6 __+3.8 _+0.6 _+3.0 _+1.6 _+0.6 _+0.9 ___ Normal ______________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ___0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ___0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _______________ ___ Persistence __(Sep) _-0.2 _+1.4 _+0.9 _+3.0 _+2.5 _+1.2 _-0.1 _+1.0 _+1.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 23 Author Share Posted October 23 === ::: [] <<<<<< Annual Scoring for Jan-Oct 2025 >>>>>> [] ::: === FORECASTER _____DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH _ cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__west __TOTALS Tom __________________ 665 _710 _776 __2151 __624 _648 _696__1968 _4119 __762 _754 _764__2280__6399 ___ Consensus ______ 637 _694 _736_ 2067 __630 _714 _698_ 2042 _4109__701_760_822_2283 __6392 hudsonvalley21 _______603 _692 _764 __2059 __576 _680 _699 __1955 _4014 __734 _714 _824__2272___6286 so_whats_happening __673 _728 _712 __2113 __638 _720 _633__ 1991 __4104 __686 _680 _784__2150___6254 Scotty Lightning ______658 _ 748 _706 __2112__525 _622 _700 __1847 _3959 __ 669 _790 _778__2237___6196 DonSutherland1 ______ 569 _638 _706 __1913 __634 _688 _632__ 1954 _3867 __729 _682 _776__2187___6054 RJay _________________ 570 _683 _ 721 __ 1974 __660 _734 _694__2088 _4062 __621 _633 _721 __1975___6037 wxallannj _____________ 559 _618 _674 __1851 __572 _644 _680__ 1896 _3747 __ 706 _750 _761 __2217___5964 RodneyS _____________ 640 _638 _728__2006__488 _558 _652__1698 _3704 __ 645 _686 _894__2225___5929 wxdude64 ____________574 _640 _634__1848 __444_ 632 _606__1682 _3530 __697 _724 _760__2181___ 5711 Roger Smith __________ 518 _616 _640 __1774 __640 _626 _674__1940 _3714 __540 _682 _739__ 1961___5675 StormchaserChuck ___585 _624 _662 __1871 __482 _682 _ 587__1751 _ 3622 __667 _698 _687__2052___5674 ___ Normal ____________618 _664 _654 __1936 __476 _460 _421__1357__3293 __700 _628 _756__2084__5377 BKViking (8/10) ______ 424 _481 _537 __1442 __430 _582 _464__1476 _2918 __548 _578 _571__1697__4615 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - prorated total __5769 Yoda _(3/10) ___________148 _194 _204 __ 546 __ 192 _ 202 _ 240 __ 634 _1180 __246 _228 _252 __ 726 __1906 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- prorated total __6177 maxim (2/10) __________ 180 _ 152 _164 __ 496 ___ 96_ 120 _ 082 __298__ 794 __92 _ 90 _ 135__ 317 ____ 1111 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - prorated total __5555 Ephesians2 _ (1/10) ____ 04 _ 36 _ 62 __ 102 ___ 74 _ 46 _ 88 _ 208 ___ 310 _ 72 _ 92 _100 ___ 264 _____ 574 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - prorated total __5740 Persistence ___________414 _514 _646 __1574 ___364 _420 _606 _1390 _2964__520 _560 _696 __1776 ___4740 __ Best scores __ (including Oct subject to change) ^ incl tied for best score * incl 3 - 5 tied for best score ____________________ DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ORD_ATL_IAH_cent__c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__TOTALS ___ Consensus _______ 2*__ 0 __ 0 ___0 ___0 __0 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 1___ 0___ 0 Tom ___________________2 *__ 1^ _ 3^ __ 1 ___ 2 ___2^ __2^___1 ___1 ___ 0 __ 2 ___2^___2 ___2 __ Mar,Jun hudsonvalley21 ________ 1 *__ 2^__2 ___1 ___ 1 __ 1 __ 2^ ___0 __ 0 ___2^^__ 1 __ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 so_whats_happening __ 1 *__ 1 __ 0 ___0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___ 2^__ 2^^ _1 ___ 2 ___0 Scotty Lightning _______ 3^*__1^__ 1^___0 ___ 0 __1^__ 3 ___ 0 __0 ___ 0 __ 3*___1 ___1 ____1 _Sep(t) Don Sutherland 1 _______1 *__ 1^__ 1*__ 0 ___ 0 __1 ___0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 __ 1^ __ 0 ___0 ___ 0 RJay ___________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___0 ___ 2^__1^__ 2^^__3 __ 0 ___ 1^__ 1*__ 2^^__0___ 0 wxallannj _______________1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1^ __ 1^__0 ___0 ____0 RodneyS _______________ 2 __ 1 __ 2^ __ 2 ___ 2 __ 2^ __1^ __ 3 ___3 ___1 __ 1 ___ 4^___1 ____3 _ May,Aug,Oct wxdude64 _____________ 1 __ 3^__ 1*___2 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 2 ___0 __0___ 0 ____1 _ Jan Roger Smith ____________1^ __3^^__2^ __2 ___3 ___3^^__3^^__1___2 ___1^__ 2^__ 0 ___1 ____3 _ Feb,Jul,Sep(t) StormchaserChuck _____1 __ 1^__ 1 ____2 ___ 1^__ 1 ___1 ___ 0 ___1 ___ 0 ___0 __ 2^^__1 ____0 _Apr BKViking _______________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___0 ___ 0 __ 1 ___0 ___ 2 __ 1 ____1 ___2^*__0___0___0 ___ Normal ______________2 __ 2 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __0 ___ 2 __ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 maxim __________________ 1 __ 0 __ 1* ___0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __0 ___1 ___ 1 __ 0 ___1 ___ 0 Ephesians2 ______________0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 ___0 ___0 __ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ============================== (tie for Consensus or Normal is not a tie for forecaster(s)) Extreme forecasts _ updated for Oct (subject to adjustments) So far, 51 of 90 ... 25 for warmest and 26 for coldest ... Jan 1-4, Feb 1-4, Mar 5-0, Apr 6-0, May 2-6, Jun 1-1, Jul 1-1, Aug 1-6, Sep 5-1, Oct 2-3. (table scoring order is by adjusted totals for ties) Forecaster ____________ Jan _Feb _Mar _Apr _May _Jun_Jul _Aug _Sep _Oct __ Total___adj for ties (*2 tied, ^3 tied) Rodney S ______________ 2-1 _1*-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _3*0 _0-1_0-0 _4-0 _1-0 _1-1 ___ 12-3 ___11.0 - 3.0 Roger Smith ___________ 0-0 _3-1 _ 0-1 _ 1*0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _1*-0_1*-0_4^-0_0-0 __ 12-2___ 8.0 - 2.0 ___ Normal _____________ 1-0 _0-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 __ 2-0 _0-1 _1-0 __2-0 _1-0 _ 2-0 __ 9-2 ___ 9.0 - 2.0 Scotty Lightning _______ 1-0 _0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0_0-0_ 0-1 _3^-0_ 0-0 ___8-1 ____6.5 - 1.0 Stormchaser Chuck ____ 0-0 _0-0 _0-1 _ 4*-2 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0_1*-0 __5-3 ____ 4.0 - 3.0 hudsonvalley21 _________1*-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 1-1 _ 0-0_ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0_2 *-0__6-1 ___ 5.0 - 0.0 wxdude64 ______________1^-0_ 0-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0_0-0 __1-0 _0-1 _ 2*-0___5-1 ____3.83-1.0 Tom ____________________0-0 _0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 2*0 _ 0-0_0-0 _0-0_1*-0 _ 0-0 __4-0 ___3.0 - 0.0 RJay ____________________0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _2**-0_0-0 _ 0-0_1 *-0_0-0_1*-0_1*-0__ 5-0 ___ 2.5-0.0 maxim __________________1^-0_0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0_ 0-0 __3-0 ___2.33-0.0 so_whats_happening ___ 1*-0 _1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 __0-0_1-0 __0-0 _0-0_0-0 __3-0 ___ 2.0 - 0.0 Ephesians2 _____________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0_ 0-0_1-1 __1-1 ___ 1.0 - 1.0 Don Sutherland _________1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0_0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-1 __2-1 ____1.33-1.0 BKViking _______________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 __1-0 ____1.0 - 0.0 wxallannj _______________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _1*-0_0-0_0-0 __1-0 ___ 0.5 - 0.0 ^ (note: For Sep wins, Roger Smith and Scotty Lightning tied three, not shown by * symbols but calculated into adjusted scores) ========================================================= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 24 Author Share Posted October 24 Above, you will find October scoring estimates to be finalized by November 1st, as well as the updated annual scoring with some adjustments yet to come for October. In general the scoring for October was over a rather narrow range and ranks only changed at the bottom of the table. RodneyS has the highest score for the month at current estimates and while we are both a long way back of the leaders, RodneyS and I are locked in a close battle for the extreme forecast award with Scotty Lightning not far behind us. Normal is also doing better than most of the forecasters at hitting extreme (cold) forecasts but overall in points, Normal is now close to Persistence and behind all forecasters (after pro-rating scores for those without a full set of forecasts). Our consensus is basically tied with Tom at the top of the scoring table (one point currently separates them). Below, please post your November forecasts ... ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotty Lightning Posted October 29 Share Posted October 29 November ! DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _ ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.5 1.5 1.5 0.5 1.0 0.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted October 30 Share Posted October 30 November DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _ ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA 1.4 1.6 1.3 0.1 1.8 1.2 2.2 1.5 -0.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 31 Share Posted October 31 November DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _ ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.1 2.0 2.2 3.0 2.5 0.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 31 Share Posted October 31 DCA: +1.0 NYC: +1.0 BOS: +1.0 ORD: +0.8 ATL: +2.5 IAH: +2.5 DEN: +3.8 PHX: +3.5 SEA: +1.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted October 31 Share Posted October 31 DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _ ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA -0.4 0.1 0.3 1.5 -0.5 1.9 3.3 1.0 1.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 31 Share Posted October 31 DCA: +1.1 NYC: +0.8 BOS: +0.7 ORD: +1.1 ATL: +1.4 IAH: +1.7 DEN: +1.9 PHX: +21 SEA: -0.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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