2025 forecast contests -- enter for December 2025 contest (deadline 06z Dec 1st) and also for winter snowfall forecast contest (see latest post in thread for details)

wxallannj · November 1

DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _ ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA

1.0 1.0 1.0 2.8 2.5 2.9 3.1 2.6 1.0

November

Ephesians2 · November 1

DCA: -1.5

NYC: -1.0

BOS: -1.5

ORD: -2.5

ATL: 0.5

IAH: 1.5

DEN: 2.0

PHX: 4.0

SEA: 3.0

Roger Smith · November 1

-1.4 _ -1.4 _ -1.7 __ -2.3 _ -2.5 _+0.9 ___ +1.5 _ +3.5 _ +0.8

yoda · November 1

DCA: +1.0

NYC: +0.8

BOS: +0.6

ORD: +0.4

ATL: +1.3

IAH: +1.9

DEN: +2.2

PHX: +2.4

SEA: +0.7

bkviking · November 1

DCA: +1.3

NYC: +1.1

BOS: +1.0

ORD: +1.0

ATL: +1.4

IAH: +1.8

DEN: +2.1

PHX: +1.9

SEA: +0.5

so_whats_happening · November 1

DCA NYC BOS ORD ATL IAH DEN PHX SEA

1.1 1.4 1.9 1.4 1.1 2.1 2.4 2.4 .8

wxdude64 · November 3

This will be ugly, completely forgot!

DCA: -2.2

NYC: -3.0

BOS: -2.7

ORD: -3.3

ATL: -1.5

IAH: -0.4

DEN: +0.5

PHX: +0.8

SEA: +2.1

Roger Smith · November 4

On 11/2/2025 at 6:32 PM, wxdude64 said:

This will be ugly, completely forgot!

DCA: -2.2

NYC: -3.0

BOS: -2.7

ORD: -3.3

ATL: -1.5

IAH: -0.4

DEN: +0.5

PHX: +0.8

SEA: +2.1

I have lost track of what late penalties I applied to whom in the past so, given the fact your position is identical to mine (hopelessly adrift of the leaders) I won't bother to penalize this one. If we keep going in 2026, I am going to have to bring late penalties up to date with current practices and expectations, what I said in the past was going to result in quite a few very large late penalties in 2025 but there are some forecasters here who are never late and they probably feel a bit put out by overly lenient policies too. The problem for me is, the contest is well supported by a loyal group but at the same time we have pretty close to the bare minimum number participating to make it worthwhile, and I am trying to balance the fairness aspect with the existence altogether of the contest.

Anyway, same goes for StormchaserChuck who has not posted yet, he's in the chase-the-chase pack with you and me, it really doesn't matter much if we reduce our scores even further, any one of us could win November and December and still finish 700 points back of Tom and hudsonvalley21 and 300 back of the chase pack behind the leaders. I am just trying to stay clear of Normal at this point.

General note -- all scoring updated and checked over, back in the thread before November forecasts.

wxdude64 · November 4

2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

I have lost track of what late penalties I applied to whom in the past so, given the fact your position is identical to mine (hopelessly adrift of the leaders) I won't bother to penalize this one. If we keep going in 2026, I am going to have to bring late penalties up to date with current practices and expectations, what I said in the past was going to result in quite a few very large late penalties in 2025 but there are some forecasters here who are never late and they probably feel a bit put out by overly lenient policies too. The problem for me is, the contest is well supported by a loyal group but at the same time we have pretty close to the bare minimum number participating to make it worthwhile, and I am trying to balance the fairness aspect with the existence altogether of the contest.

Anyway, same goes for StormchaserChuck who has not posted yet, he's in the chase-the-chase pack with you and me, it really doesn't matter much if we reduce our scores even further, any one of us could win November and December and still finish 700 points back of Tom and hudsonvalley21 and 300 back of the chase pack behind the leaders. I am just trying to stay clear of Normal at this point.

General note -- all scoring updated and checked over, back in the thread before November forecasts.

LOL, yeah, this is NOT my year. I have no issue in some form of a penalty, it just slipped my brain. Maybe it was because I was home! I remembered twice this year to get picks in before the date while away but being home, it just went *poof*.

Roger Smith · November 4

__ Table of forecasts for November 2025 __

FORECASTER _____________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _ATL _IAH ___DEN _PHX _SEA

hudsonvalley21 ___________ +1.4 _+1.6 _+1.3 ___+0.1 _+1.8 _+1.2 ___ +2.2 _+1.5 _ -0.3

BKViking __________________ +1.3 _+1.1 _ +1.0 ___+1.0 _+1.4 _+1.8 ___ +2.1 _+1.9 _+0.5

so_whats_happening _____+1.1 _ +1.4 _+1.9 ___+1.4 _ +1.1 _+2.1 ___ +2.4 _+2.4 _+0.8

Tom _______________________ +1.1 _+0.8 _+0.7 ___+1.1 _+1.4 _+1.7 ___ +1.9 _ +2.1 _+0.3

wxallannj __________________+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +2.8_+2.5 _+2.9 ___ +3.1 _+2.6 _+1.0

RJay ______________________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +0.8_+2.5 _+2.5 ___ +3.8 _+3.5 _+1.7

Scotty Lightning __________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +0.5 _+1.5 _+1.5 ___ +0.5 _+1.0 __0.0

___ consensus ____________ +1.0 _+0.8 _+0.7 ___+0.5 _+1.4 _+1.8 ___ +2.1 _+2.4 _+0.8

yoda ______________________ +1.0 _+0.8 _+0.6 ___+0.4 _+1.3 _+1.9 ___ +2.2 _+2.4 _+0.7

DonSutherland1 __________ +0.8 _+0.8 _+0.7 ___+0.1 _+2.0 _+2.2 ___ +3.0 _+2.5 _+0.9

___ Normal __________________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0

RodneyS __________________ -0.4 _+0.1 _+0.3 ___ +1.5 _-0.5 _+1.9 ___ +3.3 _+1.0 _+1.5

Roger Smith _______________-1.4 _ -1.4 _ -1.7 ___ -2.3 _ -2.5 _+0.9 ___ +1.5 _+3.5 _+0.8

Ephesians2 _______________ -1.5 _ -1.0 _ -1.5 ___ -2.5 _ -0.5 _ +1.5 ___ +2.0 _+4.0 _+3.0

wxdude64 ________________ -2.2 _-3.0 _-2.7 ___ -3.3 _ -1.5 _ -0.4 ___ +0.5 _+0.8 _+2.1

--------------

Persistence (Oct 2025) ___ -0.5 _+0.6 _+1.6 ___+4.1 _+1.3 _+4.2 ___+2.4 _+0.9 _-0.5

---------------

Highest and lowest forecasts are color coded; Normal is colder than all forecasts for DEN and PHX.

Scotty Lightning · November 6

On 11/3/2025 at 9:53 PM, wxdude64 said:

LOL, yeah, this is NOT my year. I have no issue in some form of a penalty, it just slipped my brain. Maybe it was because I was home! I remembered twice this year to get picks in before the date while away but being home, it just went *poof*.

As a fellow competitor I say that there should not be any penalty applied this month.

Roger Smith · November 8

The old penalty structure was probably too harsh and would tend to inhibit people from posting relatively not-so-late forecasts, but having absolutely no late penalties is not that good either long-term, I will give it some thought for 2026 if we keep going, and have late penalties that make sense. Other contests that I am involved with have much more routine late penalties that are applied automatically (whether by me or some other person running a contest). The turnout for those is larger, which tends to mean that the contest organizer(s) are not as wary of annoying people with late penalties. I think as a scientific question, there is usually no more skill shown on 2nd or 3rd than there is on 1st or day before that. The late penalty concept for a monthly forecast contest is mostly to encourage on-time entries so everyone feels equally likely to do well and also so the organizer can get the table of forecasts done and move on to their normal routines. Sooner or later somebody is going to crush that 810 barrier, this could be the month, never know.

Roger Smith · November 15

The anomalies to mid-month are roughly near normal in the east to +5 F in parts of the west. A somewhat colder interval lies ahead for most regions, with variations the final anomalies look likely to be near normal east to +3 west. I will track this more precisely in about a week and post some preliminary scoring.

Roger Smith · November 25

Anomalies to 23rd and projections to end of November ...

______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

___ (anom 1-23) _____+0.4 _ -1.1 _ -1.6 __ +2.3 _+4.7 _ +5.6 __+8.3 _+4.2 _ +2.8

___ ( p anom 1-30) ___-0.5 _ -1.5 _-2.0 __ +1.0 _+3.0 _+4.0 __ +5.0 _+3.0 _ +1.5

___ (adjusted >>final) 0.4 ^_ -0.8 _-0.5 __ +1.1 _+3.5 _+5.4__ +5.7 _ +3.9 _ +2.1

Above I have posted final anomalies for each location.

^ __ DCA has two missing days and the CF6 shows a departure of 0.0. The two days (12th, 17th) had anomalies of +7 and +5 at IAD, which had a monthly departure of +1.0. As 12 degree days applied to 30 days gives a true anomaly of +0.4, that will be the contest value (I will check later versions and adjust if DCA adds this missing data and revises the 0.0).

(previous notes 23rd to 29th)

Very cold air is going to spread into DEN after 28th knocking down that large positive considerably; otherwise just a bit colder in most locations than it has been on average ... will post the preliminary scoring and adjust it on the 1st of December when these values are better defined. (Note DCA anom includes two missing days, not looking like it would be much different if those days were included).

DEN has also been very dry, precip to date is only 0.08" for November. Some snow is expected with the cold wave. I notice NYC is also running quite dry at just over one inch of rain to date.

(on 29th I posted what look like the finishing anomalies within 0.5 ... may have to adjust DCA as there are two missing days and both were around +5 to +7 at other regional sites ... the impact of colder air has been a little less than projected so most of these anomalies are up slightly ... preliminary scoring about to become final scoring now being adjusted also.

Roger Smith · November 25

Final scoring for November 2025

IAH raw scores were all below 50, boosted to max-60 by scoring all from +4.9 instead of the actual +5.7 ... as rank order scoring would have been less equitable and DEN scoring turned out to be raw scores as max raw score was 69.

FORECASTER _________ DCA_NYC_BOS _east_ ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA _ west __TOTAL

RJay ____________________88 _ 64 _70 _ 222 _ 94 _80 _52_226_448_69 _92 _92 _253___701

wxallannj _______________88 _ 64 _70 _ 222 _ 66 _80_60 _206_ 428 _55 _74 _78 _207 ___635

DonSutherland1 ________ 92 _ 68 _76 _ 236 _ 80 _70 _46 _196 _ 432 _53 _72 _76 _201 ___633

___ consensus __________88 _ 68 _76 _ 232 _ 88 _58 _38 _184 _ 416 _35 _70 _74 _ 179 __595

yoda ____________________88 _ 68 _78 _ 234 _ 86 _56 _40 _182 _ 416 _37 _70 _72 _179 ___595

RodneyS ________________84 _ 82 _84 _ 250 _ 92 _20 _40 _152 _ 402 _59 _42 _88_ 189 ___591

Tom ____________________86 _ 68 _76 _ 230 _100_58 _36_194_ 424_ 31 _64 _64 _ 159 ___583

BKViking _______________ 82 _ 62 _70 _ 214 _ 98_58 _38 _194_ 408_ 35 _60 _68 _ 163 ___571

so_whats_happening ___86 _ 56 _52 _ 194 _ 94 _52 _44 _190 _384_ 41 _70 _74 _ 185 ___569

Ephesians2 _____________62 _ 96 _80 _ 238 _ 28 _20 _32 _080 _318 _33 _98 _82 _213 ___531

hudsonvalley21 ________ 80 _ 52 _64 _ 196 _ 80 _66 _26 _172_ 368_ 37 _52 _52 _ 141 ___509

Scotty Lightning ________88 _ 64 _70 _ 222 _ 88 _60 _32 _180 _ 402 _05 _42 _58 _105 ___507

Roger Smith ____________ 64 _ 88 _76 _ 228 _ 32 _00 _20 _052 _280 _23 _92 _74_ 189 ___469

___ Normal _____________ 92 _ 84 _90 _ 266 _78 _30 _00 _108 _ 374 _ 00 _22 _58 _080 ___454

wxdude64 ______________ 48 _ 56 _56 _ 160 _ 12 _ 00 _00 _012 _ 172 _05 _38 _100 _ 138___310

--------------

Persistence (Oct 2025) _ 82 _72 _58 _ 212 _ 40 _56 _86 _182 _ 394_ 41 _40 _48 _ 129 ___ 523

---------------

EXTREME FORECAST REPORT (for regular and new participants, separate logs)

NYC _ (-0.8) A win for Roger Smith (second lowest forecast, regular forecasters) and a loss for wxdude64 (lowest forecast), Ephesians2 credited with wins also.

ATL, IAH _ Wins for wxallannj (for ATL tied with RJay) for highest forecasts.

DEN _ Win for RJay (highest forecast)

PHX _ Shared win RJay and Roger Smith, also Ephesians2 credited with a win.

SEA _ Any outcome above +1.9 gives wxdude64 a win and Ephesians2 a loss. An outcome closer to +1.7 would give RJay a win and both of the others a loss.

DCA, BOS and ORD did not qualify for extreme forecasts.

(note of explanation, when new forecasters participate their achievements are ranked separately so that we have a log of results within the group of regular forecasters, and a record of the new person's wins or losses, same applies to best forecasts in the annual update)

(forecasts)

FORECASTER _____________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _ATL _IAH ___DEN _PHX _SEA

hudsonvalley21 ___________ +1.4 _+1.6 _+1.3 ___+0.1 _+1.8 _+1.2 ___ +2.2 _+1.5 _ -0.3

BKViking __________________ +1.3 _+1.1 _ +1.0 ___+1.0 _+1.4 _+1.8 ___ +2.1 _+1.9 _+0.5

so_whats_happening _____ +1.1 _ +1.4 _+1.9 ___+1.4 _ +1.1 _+2.1 ___ +2.4 _+2.4 _+0.8

Tom _______________________ +1.1 _+0.8 _+0.7 ___+1.1 _+1.4 _+1.7 ___ +1.9 _+2.1 _+0.3