2025 forecast contests -- enter for December 2025 contest (deadline 06z Dec 1st) and also for winter snowfall forecast contest (see latest post in thread for details)

wxallannj · November 1

DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _ ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA

1.0 1.0 1.0 2.8 2.5 2.9 3.1 2.6 1.0

November

Ephesians2 · November 1

DCA: -1.5

NYC: -1.0

BOS: -1.5

ORD: -2.5

ATL: 0.5

IAH: 1.5

DEN: 2.0

PHX: 4.0

SEA: 3.0

Roger Smith · November 1

-1.4 _ -1.4 _ -1.7 __ -2.3 _ -2.5 _+0.9 ___ +1.5 _ +3.5 _ +0.8

yoda · November 1

DCA: +1.0

NYC: +0.8

BOS: +0.6

ORD: +0.4

ATL: +1.3

IAH: +1.9

DEN: +2.2

PHX: +2.4

SEA: +0.7

bkviking · November 1

DCA: +1.3

NYC: +1.1

BOS: +1.0

ORD: +1.0

ATL: +1.4

IAH: +1.8

DEN: +2.1

PHX: +1.9

SEA: +0.5

so_whats_happening · November 1

DCA NYC BOS ORD ATL IAH DEN PHX SEA

1.1 1.4 1.9 1.4 1.1 2.1 2.4 2.4 .8

wxdude64 · November 3

This will be ugly, completely forgot!

DCA: -2.2

NYC: -3.0

BOS: -2.7

ORD: -3.3

ATL: -1.5

IAH: -0.4

DEN: +0.5

PHX: +0.8

SEA: +2.1

Roger Smith · November 4

On 11/2/2025 at 6:32 PM, wxdude64 said:

This will be ugly, completely forgot!

DCA: -2.2

NYC: -3.0

BOS: -2.7

ORD: -3.3

ATL: -1.5

IAH: -0.4

DEN: +0.5

PHX: +0.8

SEA: +2.1

I have lost track of what late penalties I applied to whom in the past so, given the fact your position is identical to mine (hopelessly adrift of the leaders) I won't bother to penalize this one. If we keep going in 2026, I am going to have to bring late penalties up to date with current practices and expectations, what I said in the past was going to result in quite a few very large late penalties in 2025 but there are some forecasters here who are never late and they probably feel a bit put out by overly lenient policies too. The problem for me is, the contest is well supported by a loyal group but at the same time we have pretty close to the bare minimum number participating to make it worthwhile, and I am trying to balance the fairness aspect with the existence altogether of the contest.

Anyway, same goes for StormchaserChuck who has not posted yet, he's in the chase-the-chase pack with you and me, it really doesn't matter much if we reduce our scores even further, any one of us could win November and December and still finish 700 points back of Tom and hudsonvalley21 and 300 back of the chase pack behind the leaders. I am just trying to stay clear of Normal at this point.

General note -- all scoring updated and checked over, back in the thread before November forecasts.

wxdude64 · November 4

2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

I have lost track of what late penalties I applied to whom in the past so, given the fact your position is identical to mine (hopelessly adrift of the leaders) I won't bother to penalize this one. If we keep going in 2026, I am going to have to bring late penalties up to date with current practices and expectations, what I said in the past was going to result in quite a few very large late penalties in 2025 but there are some forecasters here who are never late and they probably feel a bit put out by overly lenient policies too. The problem for me is, the contest is well supported by a loyal group but at the same time we have pretty close to the bare minimum number participating to make it worthwhile, and I am trying to balance the fairness aspect with the existence altogether of the contest.

Anyway, same goes for StormchaserChuck who has not posted yet, he's in the chase-the-chase pack with you and me, it really doesn't matter much if we reduce our scores even further, any one of us could win November and December and still finish 700 points back of Tom and hudsonvalley21 and 300 back of the chase pack behind the leaders. I am just trying to stay clear of Normal at this point.

General note -- all scoring updated and checked over, back in the thread before November forecasts.

LOL, yeah, this is NOT my year. I have no issue in some form of a penalty, it just slipped my brain. Maybe it was because I was home! I remembered twice this year to get picks in before the date while away but being home, it just went *poof*.

Roger Smith · November 4

__ Table of forecasts for November 2025 __

FORECASTER _____________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _ATL _IAH ___DEN _PHX _SEA

hudsonvalley21 ___________ +1.4 _+1.6 _+1.3 ___+0.1 _+1.8 _+1.2 ___ +2.2 _+1.5 _ -0.3

BKViking __________________ +1.3 _+1.1 _ +1.0 ___+1.0 _+1.4 _+1.8 ___ +2.1 _+1.9 _+0.5

so_whats_happening _____+1.1 _ +1.4 _+1.9 ___+1.4 _ +1.1 _+2.1 ___ +2.4 _+2.4 _+0.8

Tom _______________________ +1.1 _+0.8 _+0.7 ___+1.1 _+1.4 _+1.7 ___ +1.9 _ +2.1 _+0.3

wxallannj __________________+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +2.8_+2.5 _+2.9 ___ +3.1 _+2.6 _+1.0

RJay ______________________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +0.8_+2.5 _+2.5 ___ +3.8 _+3.5 _+1.7

Scotty Lightning __________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +0.5 _+1.5 _+1.5 ___ +0.5 _+1.0 __0.0

___ consensus ____________ +1.0 _+0.8 _+0.7 ___+0.5 _+1.4 _+1.8 ___ +2.1 _+2.4 _+0.8

yoda ______________________ +1.0 _+0.8 _+0.6 ___+0.4 _+1.3 _+1.9 ___ +2.2 _+2.4 _+0.7

DonSutherland1 __________ +0.8 _+0.8 _+0.7 ___+0.1 _+2.0 _+2.2 ___ +3.0 _+2.5 _+0.9

___ Normal __________________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0

RodneyS __________________ -0.4 _+0.1 _+0.3 ___ +1.5 _-0.5 _+1.9 ___ +3.3 _+1.0 _+1.5

Roger Smith _______________-1.4 _ -1.4 _ -1.7 ___ -2.3 _ -2.5 _+0.9 ___ +1.5 _+3.5 _+0.8

Ephesians2 _______________ -1.5 _ -1.0 _ -1.5 ___ -2.5 _ -0.5 _ +1.5 ___ +2.0 _+4.0 _+3.0

wxdude64 ________________ -2.2 _-3.0 _-2.7 ___ -3.3 _ -1.5 _ -0.4 ___ +0.5 _+0.8 _+2.1

--------------

Persistence (Oct 2025) ___ -0.5 _+0.6 _+1.6 ___+4.1 _+1.3 _+4.2 ___+2.4 _+0.9 _-0.5

---------------

Highest and lowest forecasts are color coded; Normal is colder than all forecasts for DEN and PHX.

Scotty Lightning · November 6

On 11/3/2025 at 9:53 PM, wxdude64 said:

LOL, yeah, this is NOT my year. I have no issue in some form of a penalty, it just slipped my brain. Maybe it was because I was home! I remembered twice this year to get picks in before the date while away but being home, it just went *poof*.

As a fellow competitor I say that there should not be any penalty applied this month.

Roger Smith · November 8

The old penalty structure was probably too harsh and would tend to inhibit people from posting relatively not-so-late forecasts, but having absolutely no late penalties is not that good either long-term, I will give it some thought for 2026 if we keep going, and have late penalties that make sense. Other contests that I am involved with have much more routine late penalties that are applied automatically (whether by me or some other person running a contest). The turnout for those is larger, which tends to mean that the contest organizer(s) are not as wary of annoying people with late penalties. I think as a scientific question, there is usually no more skill shown on 2nd or 3rd than there is on 1st or day before that. The late penalty concept for a monthly forecast contest is mostly to encourage on-time entries so everyone feels equally likely to do well and also so the organizer can get the table of forecasts done and move on to their normal routines. Sooner or later somebody is going to crush that 810 barrier, this could be the month, never know.

Roger Smith · November 15

The anomalies to mid-month are roughly near normal in the east to +5 F in parts of the west. A somewhat colder interval lies ahead for most regions, with variations the final anomalies look likely to be near normal east to +3 west. I will track this more precisely in about a week and post some preliminary scoring.

Roger Smith · Tuesday at 12:21 AM

Anomalies to 23rd and projections to end of November ...

______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

___ (anom 1-23) _____+0.4 _ -1.1 _ -1.6 __ +2.3 _+4.7 _ +5.6 __+8.3 _+4.2 _ +2.8

___ ( p anom 1-30) ___-0.5 _ -1.5 _-2.0 __ +1.0 _+3.0 _+4.0 __ +5.0 _+3.0 _ +1.5

___ (adjusted >>final) 0.0 _ -1.0 _-1.0 __ +1.0 _+3.5 _+5.5 __ +6.0 _ +4.0 _ +2.0

Very cold air is going to spread into DEN after 28th knocking down that large positive considerably; otherwise just a bit colder in most locations than it has been on average ... will post the preliminary scoring and adjust it on the 1st of December when these values are better defined. (Note DCA anom includes two missing days, not looking like it would be much different if those days were included).

DEN has also been very dry, precip to date is only 0.08" for November. Some snow is expected with the cold wave. I notice NYC is also running quite dry at just over one inch of rain to date.

(on 29th I posted what look like the finishing anomalies within 0.5 ... may have to adjust DCA as there are two missing days and both were around +5 to +7 at other regional sites ... the impact of colder air has been a little less than projected so most of these anomalies are up slightly ... preliminary scoring about to become final scoring now being adjusted also.

Roger Smith · Tuesday at 01:05 AM

Preliminary scoring for November 2025

IAH and DEN scoring may convert to max-60 but it won't lower any scores ... latest projections as shown above in previous post, and then eventually actual anomalies, will determine scoring.

FORECASTER ___________ DCA_NYC_BOS _east_ ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA _ west __TOTAL

hudsonvalley21 __________ 72 _ 48 _54 _ 174 _ 82 _66 _24 _172_ 346_ 24 _50 _54 _ 128 ___ 474

BKViking _________________ 74 _ 58 _60 _ 192 _100_58 _36 _194_ 386_ 22 _58 _70 _ 150 ___ 536

so_whats_happening _____78 _ 52 _42 _ 172 _ 92 _52 _42 _186 _ 358_ 28 _68 _76 _ 172 ___ 530

Tom ______________________ 78 _ 64 _66 _ 208 _ 98 _58 _34_190_ 398_ 18 _ 62 _66 _ 146 ___ 544

wxallannj _________________ 80 _ 60 _60 _ 200 _ 64 _80 _58 _202_402_ 42 _72 _80 _194 ___ 596

RJay ______________________80 _ 60 _60 _ 200 _ 96 _80 _50 _226 _426_ 56 _90 _94 _240___666

Scotty Lightning __________80 _ 60 _60 _ 200 _ 90 _60 _30 _180 _ 380 _ 00 _40 _60 _ 100 ___480

___ consensus ____________ 80 _ 64 _66 _ 210 _ 90 _58 _36 _184 _ 394 _ 22 _68 _76 _ 166 ___ 560

yoda ______________________80 _ 64 _68 _ 212 _ 88 _56 _38 _182 _ 394 _ 24 _68 _74 _ 166 ___ 560

DonSutherland1 __________ 84 _ 64 _66 _ 214 _ 82 _70 _44 _196 _ 410 _ 40 _70 _78 _ 188 ___ 598

___ Normal _______________ 100 _ 80 _80 _ 260 _80 _30 _00 _110 _ 370 _ 00 _20 _60 _080 ___450

RodneyS __________________92 _ 78 _74 _ 244 _ 90 _20 _38 _148 _ 392 _ 46 _40 _90_ 176 ___ 568

Roger Smith ______________ 72 _ 92 _86 _ 250 _ 34 _00 _18 _052 _ 302 _ 10 _90 _76_ 176 ___ 478

Ephesians2 _______________70 _100 _90 _ 260 _ 30 _20 _30 _080 _ 340 _20_100_80 _200 ___540

wxdude64 ________________ 56 _ 60 _66 _ 182 _ 14 _ 00 _00 _014 _ 196 _ 00 _36 _98 _ 134 ___330

--------------

Persistence (Oct 2025) ___ 90 _68 _48 _ 206 _ 38 _56 _84 _ 178 _ 384_ 28 _38 _50 _ 116 ___ 500

---------------

EXTREME FORECAST REPORT (for regular and new participants, separate logs)

NYC, BOS _ On current projections, wins for Roger Smith (second lowest forecasts) and losses for wxdude64 (lowest forecasts), would change to wins if actual values are below -2.2). Ephesians2 credited with wins also.

ATL, IAH _ On current projections, wins for wxallannj (for ATL tied with RJay) for highest forecasts.

DEN _ On current projection, win for RJay (highest forecast)

PHX _ Looking like shared win RJay and Roger Smith, also Ephesians2 credited with a win.

SEA _ Any outcome above +1.9 gives wxdude64 a win and Ephesians2 a loss. An outcome closer to +1.7 would give RJay a win and both of the others a loss.

DCA and ORD currently not extreme forecasts.

(note of explanation, when new forecasters participate their achievements are ranked separately so that we have a log of results within the group of regular forecasters, and a record of the new person's wins or losses, same applies to best forecasts in the annual update)

(forecasts)

FORECASTER _____________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _ATL _IAH ___DEN _PHX _SEA

hudsonvalley21 ___________ +1.4 _+1.6 _+1.3 ___+0.1 _+1.8 _+1.2 ___ +2.2 _+1.5 _ -0.3

BKViking __________________ +1.3 _+1.1 _ +1.0 ___+1.0 _+1.4 _+1.8 ___ +2.1 _+1.9 _+0.5

so_whats_happening _____ +1.1 _ +1.4 _+1.9 ___+1.4 _ +1.1 _+2.1 ___ +2.4 _+2.4 _+0.8