NEG NAO Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said: I have to say, one thing that does perplex me are the official forecasts (NWS, TWC, and the cable weather news networks) calling for almost nothing here in NYC. Over the last 24-36 hours, almost every model run has shown 5+ for NYC. I wonder what their rationale is. Maybe the north trend will continue, or lack of cold air leading up to the storm? Seems to be a big disconnect between the model data and the humans that are making the forecast. because its too warm at the start and the seasonal trend so far this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 And throw any 10-1 ratio map out the window. Unless it pounds like crazy right out of the gate and drives the temp down to 32, we will struggle with white rain and getting the snow to stick until temps drop. Again it can happen here if we get things right but anyone casting a bet would wager otherwise (talking near the city and much of LI). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, NEG NAO said: because its too warm at the start and the seasonal trend so far this year It's warm almost everywhere. We have seen storms in the past with rain to accumulating snow. Too many people are dismissing this threat but do what you want . It's a bombing low near the Benchmark. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Beauty and it is wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, MJO812 said: It's warm almost everywhere. We have seen storms in the past with rain to accumulating snow. Too many people are dismissing this threat but do what you want . It's a bombing low near the Benchmark. ok fair enough - time will tell........... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, MJO812 said: It's warm almost everywhere. We have seen storms in the past with rain to accumulating snow. Too many people are dismissing this threat but do what you want . It's a bombing low near the Benchmark. The CMC was perfect. But not much wiggle room. Guess we'll know by Sunday?? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, NEG NAO said: and it is wrong Even if the low is further west this would be snow I never saw as many people down on this threat like I have seen on this forum . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, NEG NAO said: ok fair enough - time will tell........... Definitely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, Franklin0529 said: The CMC was perfect. But not much wiggle room. Guess we'll know by Sunday?? Lol Just need the models to hold with a bombing low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Beauty It's awesome but we'll have to see if GGEM is catching up to the vigorous but north models since it was so sheared out before. Maybe we can find a middle ground somewhere. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, MJO812 said: Just need the models to hold with a bombing low. I'm praying for it. One good storm an I'll be happy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: I'm praying for it. One good storm an I'll be happy We should get lucky this month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's warm almost everywhere. We have seen storms in the past with rain to accumulating snow. Too many people are dismissing this threat but do what you want . It's a bombing low near the Benchmark. There's a reason the mets are starting to honk in the New England forum but not here and WDrag didn't start a thread. Take from that what you will. And take what we've seen forever with this kind of system usually trending north at the end unless we get the rare pocket ace from stronger confluence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: because its too warm at the start and the seasonal trend so far this year Bro ain’t no seasonal trend on that map and thats what we are talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, jm1220 said: There's a reason the mets are starting to honk in the New England forum but not here and WDrag didn't start a thread. Take from that what you will. And take what we've seen forever with this kind of system usually trending north at the end unless we get the rare pocket ace from stronger confluence. So that means we are not getting anything because he didn't start a thread ? Even the Mid Atlantic has a thread. Other forums are talking about it non stop. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, cleetussnow said: Bro ain’t no seasonal trend on that map and thats what we are talking about. Exactly Seems like everyone on this subforum is giving up already. Let them do what they want. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 4 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: Bro ain’t no seasonal trend on that map and thats what we are talking about. we are over 3 days away - watch and see....Walt isn't saying much - enough said... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: So that means we are not getting anything because he didn't start a thread ? Even the Mid Atlantic has a thread. Other forums are talking about it non stop. Like I said.... you do you. Hopefully the optimism pans out. Believe me we're due for the rabbit out of the hat. But don't also "we'll never get a snowstorm again, NYC is the worst place ever for snow" when it most likely pounds I-84/90 after it trends north in the last 48hrs. Hang out with the New England crew who will be measuring/celebrating I guess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: we are over 3 days away - watch and see....Walt isn't saying much - enough said... ICON scores a coup? Cuz thats what your saying here go hump it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, cleetussnow said: ICON scores a coup? Cuz thats what your saying here go hump it you have such a way with words......... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 It's going to snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: we are over 3 days away - watch and see....Walt isn't saying much - enough said... So storm cancel because he isn't saying anything ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Like I said.... you do you. Hopefully the optimism pans out. Believe me we're due for the rabbit out of the hat. But don't also "we'll never get a snowstorm again, NYC is the worst place ever for snow" when it most likely pounds I-84/90 after it trends north in the last 48hrs. Hang out with the New England crew who will be measuring/celebrating I guess. Jeez someone is down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 It's like a morgue in this thread. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: So storm cancel because he isn't saying anything ? where did I say storm cancel ? I posted my prediction a few posts back " a slushy couple inches at the coast with more inland."..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: where did I say storm cancel ? I posted my prediction a few posts back " a slushy couple inches at the coast with more inland."..... This is a good call. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's like a morgue in this thread. Your the only cop around clean it up. Lol. I get the whole ‘this winter sucks so this storm will suck’ mentality. But that is not how any of this works. Persistence as a forecast tool is not a thing and well argued in these forums. Fluid dynamics are not governed by ‘persistence’ nor are models. Emotions are great. We love weather. But neither will help making a forecast. Models will. Use THOSE to guide you. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 6 minutes ago, psv88 said: This is a good call. Same call all winter. Why not? If youre 20 miles inland makes for an interesting day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 4 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: Same call all winter. Why not? If youre 20 miles inland makes for an interesting day All winter? We’ve had a total of one snow threat which was a few slushy inches for the coast. What am I missing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowguy66 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 I may go hang out in another forum. This place is pathetic.. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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