PowellVolz Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Pre. Emergent. .Putting pre out a little early this year. This 3 week(ish) warm spell might bring poa annual and wild onions/garlic in a little earlier than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 hour ago, Greyhound said: Metal snowman is my wife’s. I hung it up this year and we got good results!!! Thing is…..we are a week or two away from starting a MAJOR renovation on our house and will be moving out for two months. No idea what she wants to do with that thing in the meantime……..but I will listen to the forum for advice!!!! . LOL. Snowman has to stay up until second week of March, man. Got to find a way. Be careful, someone from the Mid-Atlantic forum might come for it though. I have my blue snow shovel out front from the 14-15' winter. Just doing my part. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 42 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Putting pre out a little early this year. This 3 week(ish) warm spell might bring poa annual and wild onions/garlic in a little earlier than normal. My daffodils made it to the surface which surprises me! Our snow just cleared two days ago. I think someone in that group of perennials was like, "Let's make a break for it." LOL. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Getting a lot of thunder and lightning up here on the plateau right now. This is going to really stress the limits of the thunder in the mountains rule. If it snows in ten days, I will never question the rule. I mean it works about 90% of the time. We can just throw out the Weeklies if it works this time. We will use thunder only for next winter if so. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 My daffodils made it to the surface which surprises me! Our snow just cleared two days ago. I think someone in that group of perennials was like, "Let's make a break for it." LOL.That’s interesting… snow has nitrogen in it so maybe that stimulated them a little. Even for daffodils, this is a little early I believe. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: This is going to really stress the limits of the thunder in the mountains rule. If it snows in ten days, I will never question the rule. I mean it works about 90% of the time. We can just throw out the Weeklies if it works this time. We will use thunder only for next winter if so. Eric webb is good but he misses just like everyone else. Anthony masiello is really good also. He don't post on Twitter anymore. At least not Elon musk twitter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 I always go by when yellow Forsythia start to pop out. Typically the first of February. That’s when I get my pre down. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Something else yall may or may not know is there is this website where you can view old afd's from years ago in any city. IEM COW. It's very interesting 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: This is going to really stress the limits of the thunder in the mountains rule. If it snows in ten days, I will never question the rule. I mean it works about 90% of the time. We can just throw out the Weeklies if it works this time. We will use thunder only for next winter if so. Hey it does look like we will see a nice upslope even here the first of next week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Something else yall may or may not know is there is this website where you can view old afd's from years ago in any city. IEM COW. It's very interesting Dang was hoping to read an AFD from the 12th & 13th of March 1993 for MRX probably pretty entertaining. They have other products though for those days that were nostalgic. I was only 13 at the time and really hoped to see what they wrote for Discussions for those days. Still was amazing seeing in B&W "Blizzard conditions at times" & "Stay indoors and DO NOT attempt to travel today" in an SPS. Great find BTW, adding to bookmarks. I just want one more blizzard of 93 before I'm really old. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 hour ago, PowellVolz said: That’s interesting… snow has nitrogen in it so maybe that stimulated them a little. Even for daffodils, this is a little early I believe. . They aren't blooming, but just breaking the surface. Some years, they are up by early January. They are on a south facing slope. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 4 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: My daffodils made it to the surface which surprises me! Our snow just cleared two days ago. I think someone in that group of perennials was like, "Let's make a break for it." LOL. Noticed mine also just made it to surface. My grass is super green also. Quiet surprised. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Here ya go guy's. https://x.com/wxrisksnowstorm/status/1750697773140255145?s=46&t=5ny5bPgiX5Vy3bQMvYTY5g 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 7 hours ago, Daniel Boone said: Here ya go guy's. https://x.com/wxrisksnowstorm/status/1750697773140255145?s=46&t=5ny5bPgiX5Vy3bQMvYTY5g Interesting find. I always like DT. I haven't read his stuff in a couple of winters. Thunder in the mountains....eerily accurate little rule. The 0z GEFS is definitely quicker. It is still very warm, but at 500 it is in the boat. The 0z EPS and GEPS are about on schedule (Feb12-14 cold switch). The 6z GFS is one backdoor cold front after another - so, it shows the potential. It really seems(and this is where I would differ w/ DT) that the pattern is centered around a NE blizzard/snowstorm. If it materializes, then it could force a trough into the EC w/ the power of its circulation. If the MJO is still moving strongly for the next couple of days...we will know the warm pattern will likely be shorter. I think models are very much struggling w/ the Pacific set-up though...I can get on board with that. I am definitely good w/ the warmth ending sooner than latter. TRI was almost 22.8 degrees above normal yesterday. It felt like early summer. The low yesterday was 53. In two days, our BN departures were cut in half which is tough to day given that there are only five days left in Jan(and lots of data points balance out warm). My one concern is that some modeling is showing a quicker return to cold...but on those models, the warmth comes back mid-month and the cold isn't quite strong enough for snow. I think that is the MJO looping back into warm phases showing up. That might be an error. OTH, this may just be one of those winters where it is cold and stormy and modeling never catches up. It is starting to seem that way. Big model test coming up. If all modeling misses an early February cold snap, maybe it is time to start asking why(for the second time this winter) modeling missed something that significant on the cold side of things. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 26 Author Share Posted January 26 Clipper is back on the 0z and 6z GFS, 0z Euro, and to a lesser extent the 0z CMC Soundings look like there would be a relatively high snow level ~4000 - 5000 feet. I clicked for a sounding on Sullivan county and got this: GEFS and EPS for Elizabethton, the closest meteogram I could get on weatherbell. the period we are interested in the 31st through Feb 1: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 26 Author Share Posted January 26 One thing I think might be messing with the MJO RMM plots may be tropical cyclone development. I mean, it is southern hemisphere summer, so we're seeing TC development in places like the Indian Ocean and I think we just had one hit Queensland in Australia From BOM Australia the RMMs "are mathematical methods that combine cloud amount and winds at upper and lower levels of the atmosphere to provide a measure of the strength and location of the MJO." If that is the case, they are taking in to account all cloud cover and upper winds into an equation and that equation produces a number, which is plotted on the RMM graph. I'm not trying to sound pedantic or condescending here. Please don't read it that way. I'm just trying to figure out why the RMMs sometimes seem to do a loop. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 26 Author Share Posted January 26 Someone, I think @Dsty2001was asking about the MJO recently. While I was trying to figure out exactly how the phase number for the RMMs is calculated, I found this: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/MJO_summary.pdf It has a lot of diagrams to help with things like impacts, Hovmollers, OLR and VP diagrams 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 The CPC MJO is now 75% across phase 6 of the MJO...in just two days. It matches perfectly the extreme warmth we have had at TRI...nearly to the hour. It went up slightly in amplitude. However, now we wait to see if it stalls. If it leaves 6 tomorrow, we know that modeling was badly wrong. The fact the MJO has been moving this fast is already a model error on those plots. So, I cautiously think it will leave 6 quickly. Tomorrow will tell the tale. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 FTR, I am not quite ready to say that the return to cold is speeding up. All ensembles are still warm through the 10th. That said, if the MJO input into modeling is as bad as it has been modeled on CPC...we could see a fairly significant change in modeling within the next 24-48 hours. Yes, I am not predicting weather but model trends! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Also, for me, one of the most interesting times in using computer models to predict the weather as a hobby....is when ensembles can’t keep up with trends. I am not sure we are seeing that just yet, but maybe. The GFS will often pivot before other operational modeling, and we might be seeing that. If has been flirting with a return to cold earlier than its ensemble as has the Euro control. OTH operationals are likely just too fast with the cold. For now, ensembles are probably right...but one can see the change to a colder pattern between d10-16. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 10 hours ago, Matthew70 said: Noticed mine also just made it to surface. My grass is super green also. Quiet surprised. Between the fall drought and the recent cold...grass here looks pretty much toasted in most places. Your grass seems to green up earlier than TRI. You have a green thumb! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: Between the fall drought and the recent cold...grass here looks pretty much toasted in most places. Your grass seems to green up earlier than TRI. You have a green thumb! Even with the little snow we got between it and the ice our grass is pretty much toast here too 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 The Euro Weeklies and today’s 12z ensemble continue to be in sync in terms of progressions. Maybe there is a can kick of 24 hours to Feb 15th. That is remarkable consistency thus far from LR modeling. Looks like maybe a mini cold shot around the 5th, a return to much above normal warmth for a week, and then NA cools down for 3+ weeks. Looks like a great pattern if it can verify - an old fashioned February winter pattern vs being an extension of spring. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: The Euro Weeklies and today’s 12z ensemble continue to be in sync in terms of progressions. Maybe there is a can kick of 24 hours to Feb 15th. That is remarkable consistency thus far from LR modeling. Looks like maybe a mini cold shot around the 5th, a return to much above normal warmth for a week, and then NA cools down for 3+ weeks. Looks like a great pattern if it can verify - an old fashioned February winter pattern vs being an extension of spring. Until the eps or gefs starts indicating a pattern to support cold again, I'm in denial of the weeklies. That's just me though lol. I'm still hoping winter returns before we run otta time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 3 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said: Until the eps or gefs starts indicating a pattern to support cold again, I'm in denial of the weeklies. That's just me though lol. I'm still hoping winter returns before we run otta time That is exactly what my post was about....they are all in sync including the EPS/GEFS/GEPS. They are all singing the same song. They are within just a few hours of each other re: progression. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 23 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: That is exactly what the my post was about....they are all in sync including the EPS/GEFS/GEPS. They are all singing the same song. They are within just a few hours of each other re: progression. Yes sir. Things are progressing nicely in my opinion. Great posts Carver. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Until the eps or gefs starts indicating a pattern to support cold again, I'm in denial of the weeklies. That's just me though lol. I'm still hoping winter returns before we run otta timeI could be wrong but I believe that’s what he’s saying. They all are in good agreement. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 That is exactly what the my post was about....they are all in sync including the EPS/GEFS/GEPS. They are all singing the same song. They are within just a few hours of each other re: progression.Oh my bad. Guess I should have kept reading. Lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Euro Weeklies are bumping up snow for Feb and early March. I don't worry about actual totals, but just look for storm tracks. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Euro Weeklies are bumping up snow for Feb and early March. I don't worry about actual totals, but just look for storm tracks. You mind if I share this in my forum? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now