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February 2024 mid/ long range


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Big ol' Siberian high invaded China. They have racked up above normal snow cover now. High press extends over the Pole to Alaksa.

However a big ol' GOA Low is grinding away. Could get cold again in 2-3 weeks. Fow now, Hurry Up And Wait!  

 image.png.d25a9a16083aa6b03bb1b50e4977be5e.png  
 
image.png.69f1f26f99c3943af6050a3d506bb6ad.png

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Euro MJO seems to go bonkers into the WP because its been showing another WWB as we get into Feb,its been holding on to keeping the MJO into the WP for a extended stay and hasnt backed down much of any.CFS has been showing the same thing on the velocity but its also been showing a suppressed MJO signal with the 2nd WWB and the MJO is more advanced headed towards Africa and the Western IO into wk2 of Feb today

ECMWF-Charts (11).png

ECMWF-Charts (12).png

ECMWF-Charts (13).png

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1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

Euro MJO seems to go bonkers into the WP because its been showing another WWB as we get into Feb,its been holding on to keeping the MJO into the WP for a extended stay and hasnt backed down much of any.CFS has been showing the same thing on the velocity but its also been showing a suppressed MJO signal with the 2nd WWB and the MJO is more advanced headed towards Africa and the Western IO into wk2 of Feb today

ECMWF-Charts (11).png

ECMWF-Charts (12).png

ECMWF-Charts (13).png

Ph 7 has been good in Ninos. 

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1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

The first two are control runs for week 4.  The last two are their accompanying ensembles.  I have some commentary in the Jan thread(thought I was in this thread).

Screen_Shot_2024-01-24_at_9.15.29_PM.pngScreen_Shot_2024-01-24_at_8.52.01_PM.pngScreen_Shot_2024-01-24_at_9.04.09_PM.pngScreen_Shot_2024-01-24_at_8.51.40_PM.png

 

Carver say it ain't so. I was told winter is over now. Close the blinds, put out the grass seed, start getting ready for beach weather... 

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9 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Carver say it ain't so. I was told winter is over now. Close the blinds, put out the grass seed, start getting ready for beach weather... 

It could be a slog through some very warm temps to get there.  It reminds me of this past December in a lot of ways.  Lots of warm weather and despair.  The MJO plots today don't give me happy thoughts, but hopefully those ext long range looks know something the CPC MJO programming doesn't.   My main concern is seeing modeling get to 6 and not being able to past it.  They just hit a wall.  I thought maybe at first that was jus some bias.  However, a full stall or a loop in the warm phases is likely at this point.  The good thing is that the timeline by LR ext modeling still looks reasonable(unless the GFS is right) even with the full stall taken into account.  The GFS MJO (from this morning) would end winter, but I don't think it is right..   I "think" we see a nice return to winter, but I can definitely make an argument that its return could be brief and muted. For now, I do like seeing agreement in long range ext modeling about the progression, timeline, and duration of the cold snap.  But at 21 days out.....it could still flip.

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The good thing is that the actual MJO plot is still moving right along - stall sill predicted within a few days by GFS modeling.  The MJO entered 6 on overnight modeling updates.  It is about a fourth of the way across.  So, it has about 19 days(to hit LR ext modeling timelines) to get from where it is now across the rest of phase 6 and 7...to get to 8.  While I do agree it can snow in 7, we are better off in 8=1-2.  We are about to find out if it is going to stall.  The EMON(Euro ext plot) from yesterday gets across phase 6 in two days.  The GMON(GFS ext plot) takes 16 days.  One might imagine that timing difference has some pretty big consequences in modeling.  A warning about the EMON, that is based upon yesterday's 0z run.  Today's 0z run looks like hot garbage...so, we will see tomorrow morning what the new Weeklies MJO plot looks like.  

Take a look at the last two runs of the GFS(0z and 6z).  One is a warmista pattern, and one is a return to winter(warm wx did we even know ya?) pattern.    And that has been a common theme with that model for a couple of days.  The GFS is just picking flower petals with each run right now.....loves me, loves me not.  LOL.  

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56 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Pre. Emergent. 

hJ6AWHC.png

 

In all seriousness though, it is just one run at range, so nothing to get too excited about, but this is the promised El Nino storm track:

giphy.gif

 

 

Now that, is a classic El Nino (smash W NC) run, and what I envisioned over the summer...the low road express.  It might be a bit too quick w/ the transition to cold, but that is a great example of an active STJ.  If this was La Nina, I would worry about dry cold.  That gives me reasonable confidence (well, as much confidence as one can have w/ predicting weather) the STJ is going to stay active for a while.  El Nino "should" bury the Smokies more times than not.

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4 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Now that, is a classic El Nino (smash W NC) run, and what I envisioned over the summer...the low road express.  It might be a bit too quick w/ the transition to cold, but that is a great example of an active STJ.  If this was La Nina, I would worry about dry cold.  That gives me reasonable confidence (well, as much confidence as one can have w/ predicting weather) the STJ is going to stay active for a while.  El Nino "should" bury the Smokies more times than not.

We may squander all of February on too warm air for winter weather. I hope not. Once past mid February, time is big time ticking. March can be cold, mainly higher elevations. Hoping we don't wait until then for that

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1 hour ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

We may squander all of February on too warm air for winter weather. I hope not. Once past mid February, time is big time ticking. March can be cold, mainly higher elevations. Hoping we don't wait until then for that

It could happen.  It is the Upper South.  Even during good winters, we squander a bunch of weeks.

February can also rock.  Snow just doesn't hang around as long.  

The MJO is ruling the roost with an iron fist this winter, cold and warm.  Yesterday we hit 70 degrees during our colder climatology as the MJO rolled into 6.  I read somewhere on another forum that the MJO is fairly random in how it affects EC weather.  I tried not to laugh.  It is nearly perfectly synced this winter, and has been for the past four years with maybe a couple of notable exceptions. 

Until it reaches favorable phases, it is going to be warm and approaching daily records at times.  That said, it ripped into phase 6 overnight.  There is likely going to be a stall somewhere between now and phase 8.  The closer it gets to 8, the better we are if/when it stalls.

You can see the pattern change back to cold on both the GEFS and GEPS at 12z.  Ridge gets kicked NE and a trough slowly builds underneath.  My snowiest month is almost always February.  It just hasn't been lately.

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19 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

It could happen.  It is the Upper South.  Even during good winters, we squander a bunch of weeks.

February can also rock.  Snow just doesn't hang around as long.  

The MJO is ruling the roost with an iron fist this winter, cold and warm.  Yesterday we hit 70 degrees during our colder climatology as the MJO rolled into 6.  I read somewhere on another forum that the MJO is fairly random in how it affects EC weather.  I tried not to laugh.  It is nearly perfectly synced this winter, and has been for the past four years with maybe a couple of notable exceptions. 

Until it reaches favorable phases, it is going to be warm and approaching daily records at times.  That said, it ripped into phase 6 overnight.  There is likely going to be a stall somewhere between now and phase 8.  The closer it gets to 8, the better we are if/when it stalls.

You can see the pattern change back to cold on both the GEFS and GEPS at 12z.  Ridge gets kicked NE and a trough slowly builds underneath.  My snowiest month is almost always February.  It just hasn't been lately.

Eric webb seems adamant after this next week's jet extension, it gets going gangbusters through mid March so I guess we shall see.

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19 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

But truly, I am just glad not to be running in sub 10F wind chill right now.  A week or two break is fine with me!

I haven't run outside since before Christmas. I've done almost 100 miles on a treadmill since then. I'm finally going to fix that this weekend.

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41 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

And then the 12z Euro looked like it was going the way of the 6z GFS:

GI0qbaH.png

 

giphy.gif

 

Not gonna lie though, I'm getting a little nervous. I haven't see the elk since the snow started. I also have only been able to access the area it has been living for two days, so hopefully just a glitch in the matrix. 

The NE is has been trying to back into something good off-and-on for several runs on different models.  That was a wild run.  Fujiwhara effect on fully display.  I am not sure I have seen it to that level.  Backdoor cold fronts will work in regards to at least muting a portion of the MJO.  Although, the MJO on a lot of model plots is ducking into 7 and then looping back in 6.  That brief relaxation may be allowing for some mischief in New England.

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1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

The NE is has been trying to back into something good off-and-on for several runs on different models.  That was a wild run.  Fujiwhara effect on fully display.  I am not sure I have seen it to that level.  Backdoor cold fronts will work in regards to at least muting a portion of the MJO.  Although, the MJO on a lot of model plots is ducking into 7 and then looping back in 6.  That brief relaxation may be allowing for some mischief in New England.

As most know, we don't want the mjo to stay in phase 6 bc that is the warmest of all phases. I'm surprised that Eric webb hasn't considered that unless he feels that won't be a factor moving forward. It just means that winter will be delayed even more if it comes back, which I hope it does for one more opportunity at a winter storm. It will suck to waste a whole month

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14 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

As most know, we don't want the mjo to stay in phase 6 bc that is the warmest of all phases. I'm surprised that Eric webb hasn't considered that unless he feels that won't be a factor moving forward. It just means that winter will be delayed even more if it comes back, which I hope it does for one more opportunity at a winter storm. It sucks to waste a whole month

The Euro control (today as well) has been very quick to return cold to the East.  its ensemble is about 5-7 days slower.  I tend to roll with ensembles at this stage.  I hope he is correct.  Webb has struggled w/ the EC pattern for most of winter.  This would be a great time for him to get it right.  Euro control(which is basically just another member of the broader ensemble group of members) is huckleberry.  I would also add that there are some MJO runs on the CPC which would support his thinking.

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Feb 10-March11.  No, I don't think it will be that dry, but it isn't out of the realm of reason given the strong EPO out West.  A strong EPO will often suppress the MJO, and is a negative consequence sometimes of a good Pac set-up.  That said, we had nearly the identical precip depiction for January on the Weeklies...I just didn't post the BN precip map, because I thought it was wrong (given seasonal trends for the STJ to win out).  I suspect that to be the case this time as well.  However, this set-up is slightly different than the mid Jan cold snap.  The dominant feature will likely be the EPO/PNA w/ the NAO likely more of a secondary feature.  Also, sometimes LR ext modeling will have less precip where there will be more snow.  That turned out to be the case recently.  Storm track is visible.  North Carolina should gets some shots this time around or at least have something to track.

Screen_Shot_2024-01-25_at_3.50.33_PM.png

 

Screen_Shot_2024-01-25_at_3.50.54_PM.png

 

@Itryatgolf70, this is fits what Webb was discussing.  I do think if the Weeklies had been derived from the 12z run, the control would have been colder and the ensemble warmer.  Sometimes, control and operational runs will catch a trend.  Either way, I think modeling is beginning to pick-up on cold returning which is great.    Cosgrove seems to favor a week 3 return to cold.  Though, he has some busted pipes and wants a brief warm-up - I don't blame him.   Below is the d9-16 temp map which is cold, and that is what I was really wanting to share.  I added the control's full month of Feb just for funl:

Screen_Shot_2024-01-25_at_3.58.25_PM.png

 

Screen_Shot_2024-01-25_at_3.57.43_PM.png

Sadily, the end of winter is beginning to show up at the very end of the control.  The ensemble runs winter well into March.  So, the window (about 3 weeks) is on both the control and ensemble.  The control is quicker into the EC but burns out quickly.  The ensemble is about 7-10 days later, and keeps it colder for a similar time...it only ends, because the run ends.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

As most know, we don't want the mjo to stay in phase 6 bc that is the warmest of all phases. I'm surprised that Eric webb hasn't considered that unless he feels that won't be a factor moving forward. It just means that winter will be delayed even more if it comes back, which I hope it does for one more opportunity at a winter storm. It will suck to waste a whole month

Maybe later this evening or tomorrow morning(once the new MJO plots are out), I will look(and anyone else as wel) a bit deeper into the possibility that the cold returns more quickly.  I think even modeling has one foot in that camp and one foot out.  Cosgrove has ridden an analog forecast all winter, and it has served him well.  I think I remember him saying those analogs say this thaw should be brief.  I have Feb cold for my seasonal forecast, so I am definitely hoping for a cold return sooner than later.   Thanks for the info!

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2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

And then the 12z Euro looked like it was going the way of the 6z GFS:

GI0qbaH.png

 

giphy.gif

 

Not gonna lie though, I'm getting a little nervous. I haven't see the elk since the snow started. I also have only been able to access the area it has been living for two days, so hopefully just a glitch in the matrix. 

We may have used up our elk mojo.  It all comes down to whether that wooly worm was right, and whether the metal snowman(whose was that?) has got anything left in the tank.  Now, in YNP elk will go to lower elevations if it gets cold.  The elk may be headed to Florida for vacation.

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We may have used up our elk mojo.  It all comes down to whether that wooly worm was right, and whether the metal snowman(whose was that?) has got anything left in the tank.  Now, in YNP elk will go to lower elevations if it gets cold.  The elk may be headed to Florida for vacation.

Metal snowman is my wife’s. I hung it up this year and we got good results!!! Thing is…..we are a week or two away from starting a MAJOR renovation on our house and will be moving out for two months. No idea what she wants to do with that thing in the meantime……..but I will listen to the forum for advice!!!!


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