Daniel Boone Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Apparently, KMRX Evening Shift buys the 12z Euro Outlook. Say's only lt wintry precip expected Monday and Tuesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hillbilly Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Apparently, KMRX Evening Shift buys the 12z Euro Outlook. Say's only lt wintry precip expected Monday and Tuesday. Based on my experience following MRX, when an event is this far out; they find the model that provides the least amount of snow and go with it in their communications with the public and that usually works out well for them, time will tell... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 4 minutes ago, Hillbilly said: Based on my experience following MRX, when an event is this far out; they find the model that provides the least amount of snow and go with it in their communications with the public and that usually works out well for them, time will tell... They've told me before that they use the NBM Output. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 18z Euro control is definitely producing more precip over east TN than the 12z control. little less press from the TPV in Canada. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 If we count the control as having any bearing on the Euro OP that run was a small scootchle towards the GFS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 9 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: 18z Euro control is definitely producing more precip over east TN than the 12z control. little less press from the TPV in Canada. Zilch nada for Nashville. It was even worse. I’m wondering if the euro is going to score a coup. It’s all by itself correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 The 18z control was definitely a bad run for Nashville, but better for east TN folks. I would say it was on its own at 12z but if we count the Euro ensemble control as a low resolution version of the operational, that run was much better for eastern areas than 12z. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 The 18z control was definitely a bad run for Nashville, but better for east TN folks. I would say it was on its own at 12z but if we count the Euro ensemble control as a low resolution version of the operational, that run was much better for eastern areas than 12z. How much QPF?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 The tailend of a front drapping across the gulf with a wave or energy left behind is historically the #1 way to get a southern snowstorm. Typically happens at the beginning of an arctic outbreak or when the pattern begins to relax (more of an ice threat then), every so often both. Miller As are typically not major deals for middle/west TN. What is not typical is there is usually alot more separation between a dying frontal wave and the cyclogenisis of a follow up wave (so model error may be unusually high with this setup). West/middle TN needs to score with wave #1 fluff bomb (due to very high ratio)...ETN has to rely on wave #2...this is almost like tracking two completely different setups at the same time. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 3 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: The tailend of a front drapping across the gulf with a wave or energy left behind is historically the #1 way to get a southern snowstorm. Typically happens at the beginning of an arctic outbreak or when the pattern begins to relax (more of an ice threat then), every so often both. Miller As are typically not major deals for middle/west TN. What is not typical is there is usually alot more separation between a dying frontal wave and the cyclogenisis of a follow up wave (so model error may be unusually high with this setup). West/middle TN needs to score with wave #1 fluff bomb (due to very high ratio)...ETN has to rely on wave #2...this is almost like tracking two completely different setups at the same time. Thanks for this. I hope there is a way we can all score here. Anyone have any recent examples of similar storms? Just want to know what "success" would look like or if it is even possible or likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, Silas Lang said: Thanks for this. I hope there is a way we can all score here. Anyone have any recent examples of similar storms? Just want to know what "success" would look like or if it is even possible or likely. I was trying to think of a similar setup earlier today, and honestly I can't. Doesn't mean it didn't happen, so maybe @John1122, @Holston_River_Rambler, @Carvers Gap, or any of the other great historical posters we have here can. Kinda giving my age away a little, but first system I tracked (if you wanna call it that back then) using a hand drawn map while scribbling in the old noaa reporting stations info on a radio every hour, was the storm I won't name in 93. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 16 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: How much QPF? . 18z : 12z: 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 5 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: I was trying to think of a similar setup earlier today, and honestly I can't. Doesn't mean it didn't happen, so maybe @John1122, @Holston_River_Rambler, @Carvers Gap, or any of the other great historical posters we have here can. Kinda giving my age away a little, but first system I tracked (if you wanna call it that back then) using a hand drawn map while scribbling in the old noaa reporting stations info on a radio every hour, was the storm I won't name in 93. It's a unique set up IMO 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 18z : 12z: Wonder if all that GOM convection is shutting return flow off?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I was trying to think of a similar setup earlier today, and honestly I can't. Doesn't mean it didn't happen, so maybe [mention=499]John1122[/mention], [mention=16126]Holston_River_Rambler[/mention], [mention=769]Carvers Gap[/mention], or any of the other great historical posters we have here can. Kinda giving my age away a little, but first system I tracked (if you wanna call it that back then) using a hand drawn map while scribbling in the old noaa reporting stations info on a radio every hour, was the storm I won't name in 93.Do we need a “memories” thread on here? I would love to hear people talk about personal experience with past storms. . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 9 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: . I like this. Acknowledged the threat and pretty transparent. 2" is a "good" snow for me, so if I can get that, I am satisfied. Of course, more is always welcome! Haha 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Well will the other models trend drier like the Euro or will they both stay their course or could possibly the Euro say I will join the snow party & say YES!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 The 00z NAM is definitely slower/holding back more than other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 The RGEM slowed down too but it's still ahead of the NAM. It was working well for the west side as the run ended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, John1122 said: The RGEM slowed down too but it's still ahead of the NAM. It was working well for the west side as the run ended. It at least still shows a push to the east as well, suggesting we get in on some of the initial action. Though it does look like some downsloping is evident, especially in the southern valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 If anyone is interested in extrapolating from 84 hours on the RGEM, here ya go. lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 The ICON is almost a mirror image, through 78, of its solid 18z run. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Yeah icon ends a little more positive tilt but pretty much same snowfall as 18z. Actually better for my backyard 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 ICON was a good run but a bad trend for now, as it stepped a little more Southeast and instead of running a low up Hatteras it went out to sea. The clown map still looked nice but I was hoping to see the SE trend back off. After years of NW trends hurting us, we may be in the year of the SE trend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Hr 54 on gfs that little pacific vort max keeps slowing down each run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, fountainguy97 said: Hr 54 on gfs that little pacific vort max keeps slowing down each run. What are the implications of this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, Silas Lang said: What are the implications of this? Not fully sure but I believe it is causing a slightly flatter initial wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Yeah hr 84 initial precip is flatter and much weaker and SE. this seems to be following the trend of a weaker OTS system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 5 minutes ago, Silas Lang said: What are the implications of this? Could lead to suppression. Squash it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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