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Texas 2024 Discussion/Observations


Stx_Thunder
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10 hours ago, cheese007 said:

Windows blown out downtown


It’s MLB season. The Astros were just playing as scheduled tonight at Minute Maid ballpark, and it looks like they’re gonna win also which is a nice finish to today’s powerful convective action in Houston.

Nothing severe there lol

 

8 hours ago, Chinook said:

This is measured by downtown-- 62 knots ( Houston Dunn Helistop airport?)

 

62 kts seems on spot around Houston as most people can definitely lose power at those sudden gust speeds (at least around this part of the country).

But the TDS signature on radar and the broken windows on those 2 downtown skyscrapers that @cheese007 posted about suggests there may have been a very brief spinup right around there as the thunder line was moving in (on the leading edge).

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This is me being pedantic of course, but it should go without saying the extremely saturated ground from excessive rainfall this Spring (this has been one of the rainiest starts to the year in Houston's history) definitely made the extent of the damage worse than it might have been with all of the large trees and power lines that were easily uprooted.

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54 minutes ago, Powerball said:

This is me being pedantic of course, but it should go without saying the extremely saturated ground from excessive rainfall this Spring (this has been one of the rainiest starts to the year in Houston's history) definitely made the extent of the damage worse than it might have been with all of the large trees and power lines that were easily uprooted.

85-110 mph winds would uproot trees regardless of saturation 

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My palm survived.  NWS reporting just one tornado, near Cypress, preliminary EF-1.  Cypress is where the big transmission lines (the reason 600,000 in the county are still in the dark are), I would have though EF-2 damage to take down transmission towers.

 

https://x.com/TexasMoran/status/1791588419132617007

 

TransmissionTowers.jpg

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On 5/17/2024 at 6:16 PM, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Rain is ~10 miles away, near downtown by radar, but was outside, bright CG lightning, less than 3 miles away judging by the thunder.


Got my share of a very decent thunder show & rainfall down here through daytime morning hours Friday (yesterday). Had one severe warned mini cluster (provided some good convective blowoff shield lightning strikes during the couple of hours prior), near me around noonday from the southwest that had literally no CGs around when was it was about to come over, then BAM! (almost literally)

Had a feeling that was gonna happen. Was pretty bright, inside. Even though didn’t really get dark outside right ahead of the cluster. Nowhere as crazy dark outside as what happened in Houston on thursday. Rain rates in the cluster here were definitely over 3”/hr. Definitely an inch total yesterday.

Power went out for about 3 seconds. Saw it was a fairly powerful negative CG on lightning analysis (150 kiloamps).

- - -

That looks to be about it convective and/or MCS wise for the state till Thursday (upcoming week). And possibly again by Memorial Day (seeing a solid “higher” probability signal area again in NTX).

Not seeing a strong signal for continued sig flooding potential in ETX & especially closer to Houston area.

With all the dry, very warm/hot days ahead into the upcoming week on GFS/Euro, ETX should be able to dry out fairly well. Flood-producing MCS activity later next week doesn’t seem likely either unless there’s a growing signal on models in coming days for things to really pick up again Memorial Day weekend into final week of May. Which is fairly possible as the furnace ML High doesn’t look like it’s going to hold really strong over the state as I see latest GFS runs have backed off on 500mb heights some for coming week.

Both GFS & Euro holding mainly steady around 590dm @ H5 in STX all week. Which isn’t too bad around here by this time of year.

 

9D0D922A-6CF6-42E9-A5C9-879074D56FB8.thumb.png.bfb688829f195bbd466c315cd6615b43.png
 

75AE6558-8168-4606-B6EB-B30752E6164C.thumb.png.d78e2a27a2f3a8b50e9797371c2dbaf2.png

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From about US 84 and S, it looks to get rather dry and quite warm.  I think this is the beginning of summer in STX and the next real chance of significant rain is August, more likely September.  Not sure the STR ever gets far enough N that we'll see inverted troughs breaking off from the jet and coming back W under the ridge.  Land of pure speculation, next best chance for significant weather is probably in September when the STR breaks down enough for the return of rain producing fronts (not the weak wind shifts with small dewpoint drop that can make it here even mid-summer, but don't produce sensible weather because of high heights and subsidence.

 

Good news, for customers whose 'weatherheads' (pipe that carries electric down to the house and external breaker box) aren't damaged, CenterPoint thinks most customers will have electricity by Wednesday.  Which will be a good thing considering the heat.  Low 90sF all week with dews above 70F.

 

OTOH, in NTX, DFW is already in a 15% risk for severe storms on Thursday.  They have probably 2 more weeks of spring before the high heights shut down spring.

 

 

eps_z500aNorm_us_61.png

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FWIW, despite all of the precipitation, DFW is still on track for a top 10 warmest Spring on record. To-date, the temperature departure is 68.6*F, which as a matter of fact, ties with 2022...

With respect to total rainfall at DFW, Spring 2024 isn't even close to cracking the top 10 wettest list (*ONLY* 15.85" to-date)...

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1 hour ago, Chinook said:

Maybe some of your friends got this large hail

hail reports texas.jpg


I don’t see any actual large hail there (2+ diameter), except maybe that icon that’s blocked out on the left side of the warning outline box.

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24 minutes ago, Stx_Thunder said:


I don’t see any actual large hail there (2+ diameter), except maybe that icon that’s blocked out on the left side of the warning outline box.

I'm assuming by "large hail," they meant severe-criteria hail...

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DFW was short changed out of 90*F yesterday, but it did get there today, overacheiving several degrees above the forecast high thanks to a significant break in the cloud cover this afternoon and the mixing down of dewpoints under the outflow bubble.

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Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Shreveport LA 715 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 TXC037-250030- /O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0022.000000T0000Z-240525T0030Z/ Bowie TX- 715 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 ...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR BOWIE COUNTY AND NEW BOSTON TEXAS... ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL BOWIE COUNTY... At 714 PM CDT, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was located over New Boston, moving east at 25 mph. TORNADO EMERGENCY for New Boston. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Deadly tornado. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. The tornado will be near... Hooks around 720 PM CDT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous, and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If in a mobile home, a vehicle or outdoors, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW! && LAT...LON 3356 9445 3355 9441 3354 9438 3353 9433 3350 9423 3334 9430 3346 9452 TIME...MOT...LOC 0014Z 291DEG 23KT 3349 9441 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN $$ 13

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