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Texas 2024 Discussion/Observations


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Been quite windy down here on the coast all night with BRO & CRP VWP showing 60 kts southerly/WAA flow in the first few thousand feet above the surface (around 925Mb) the past several hours. But 70 kts around Dallas/FWS at 850Mb on 12Z observed sounding this morning (might've peaked 75 kt in that layer on VWP for a short time around daybreak a little while ago).

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Global multi-model output showing significant area of maxed out thunder probabilities just north/east of Houston this afternoon:

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This region is also generally being supported on CAMs as well.

Parameters also looking pretty good in this region for severe wind/hail potential as well. Fairly low FZL, generally steep mid-level LRs, and generally 70 kts DL shear by later afternoon on CAMs & globals. Even about 80 kt 500Mb winds by then also, and 50 - 60 kt at 700Mb.

A little surface heating may also be in play closer to Houston area given time of day as well ahead of the cold front later this afternoon.

Interestingly also behind surface cold front, Euro has been insistent the past couple days on developing some post-frontal convection (likely very elevated due to rapidly drying low-levels) during this evening from the mid-coast northeast toward ETX with a swath of high 700Mb RH on GFS also, slicing rapidly east/southeast to the coast.

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You should see the ECMWF (including control and most of its ensembles), much more bullish than the GFS on wintry precipitation for DFW and has been for several runs. The Canadian not so much. Temperatures have markedly decreased this morning on all models for this Arctic air intrusion. DFW has a reasonable shot of falling below 10°F, especially if we get snow/ice. The Oz ECMWF deterministic this morning is down to 5°F for DFW, which is impressive for that model this far out. It'll be interesting to see how the NAM handles this.

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NWS SHV giving the winter storm some credence. Though the hedge by only showing 20% chance of mix Sunday night. This is a reasonable balance of giving public some heads up while sharing much more in the discussion.

A very strong cold front is expected to move into the region before sunrise
Monday morning. Widespread rain is expected to develop with this
boundary, and quickly change over to a wintry mix as arctic air
quickly builds in behind the front. The trailing 850 mb trough
should provide enough lift to keep the post frontal precip going.
There is the potential for this system to cause impacts across the
region, as temps will quickly fall into the 20s behind the front.
But, as we all know, winter weather is very difficult to forecast in
the south. With this still being 5 days out, we will continue to
monitor this potential event closely, as this forecast could change.
Regardless of the winter weather potential, we are still expecting
the coldest air of the season to move into the region.

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1 hour ago, canderson said:

I think Dallas is in a decent spot to get a couple inches of snow actually next Monday. It’ll be icey but might be snow for a while before the inevitable changeover. Weatherford NW seems ideal for a legit snow. 

Euro 850 temps reach freezing around 12Z Monday, with three to four tenths falling.  I'm going to be optimistic and say 4 inches of snow isn't out the question.  That is good news, bad news is Houston drops to between 20 and 24F Tuesday morning with near 15 hours of sub-freezing weather.  This results in my palm tree looking like it is dead for 4 or 5 months after.  Would have been nice to not have a hard freeze two of the last three winters.

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1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Euro 850 temps reach freezing around 12Z Monday, with three to four tenths falling.  I'm going to be optimistic and say 4 inches of snow isn't out the question.  That is good news, bad news is Houston drops to between 20 and 24F Tuesday morning with near 15 hours of sub-freezing weather.  This results in my palm tree looking like it is dead for 4 or 5 months after.  Would have been nice to not have a hard freeze two of the last three winters.

 

3 hours ago, canderson said:

I think Dallas is in a decent spot to get a couple inches of snow actually next Monday. It’ll be icey but might be snow for a while before the inevitable changeover. Weatherford NW seems ideal for a legit snow. 

But the both 12z and 18z suit came in pretty dry for Dallas is it not? It's cold for sure but dry.

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8 hours ago, vwgrrc said:

But the both 12z and 18z suit came in pretty dry for Dallas is it not? It's cold for sure but dry.


Was reading that Euro is trending drier in this morning's Austin/San Antonio NWS AFD because they were also concerned about winter precip in that forecasting region next week. There's just too many snow (and tornado) fans on this wx site.

They're currently going around 20 F for lows Monday night (WC in single digits which'd be fun), around San Antonio. Either way, it'll definitely be chilly in all of the state for sure next week. NAM of course, will spill the beans when it gets close.

But they're talking now that the intruding cold could stay for an extended period. I don't think we'll have an intensity repeat of TX February 2021 as the more intense ones are often associated with LN winters. But below freezing temps even just in the mid-lower 20s down here in STX for about 10 hours straight would be a pain in the butt for the pipes. With those temps, lots of peoples main lines busted around Corpus during the Feb 2021 freeze causing the water pressure to drop for everyone in the city.

It normally never gets that cold this far south in the state (to note on here). Especially near coast.

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2 hours ago, Stx_Thunder said:


Was reading that Euro is trending drier in this morning's Austin/San Antonio NWS AFD because they were also concerned about winter precip in that forecasting region next week. There's just too many snow (and tornado) fans on this wx site.

They're currently going around 20 F for lows Monday night (WC in single digits which'd be fun), around San Antonio. Either way, it'll definitely be chilly in all of the state for sure next week. NAM of course, will spill the beans when it gets close.

But they're talking now that the intruding cold could stay for an extended period. I don't think we'll have an intensity repeat of TX February 2021 as the more intense ones are often associated with LN winters. But below freezing temps even just in the mid-lower 20s down here in STX for about 10 hours straight would be a pain in the butt for the pipes. With those temps, lots of peoples main lines busted around Corpus during the Feb 2021 freeze causing the water pressure to drop for everyone in the city.

It normally never gets that cold this far south in the state (to note on here). Especially near coast.

The ECMWF suite this morning has trended a bit drier even for DFW, but it is still outputting enough QPF that it would cause major travel impacts if it were to verify. It should be noted that the Canadian is also showing QPF for Sunday night into Monday for North Texas. Much of it on both models would fall as freezing rain and/or sleet, not as much as snow given how shallow this airmass will be. The GFS still has the same trailing wave but it is further north and east with it and has been all over the place with both the cold and the wave compared to the other two models with very little run to run consistency.

The ECMWF is bringing the front into DFW Saturday afternoon. Significantly earlier than the rest of the models. Be interesting to see what the NAM says about that.

It is conceivable in North Texas, including DFW Metro, that temps will be below freezing 36 to 48 hours. The big concern here is it is looking more likely temps will fall into the single digits with this even into the Metroplex itself with some of the outlying areas falling to near 0°F.

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The icing appears most likely to be centered on a Palestine to Texarkana line where >0.10" of ice is very possible Sunday into Monday. With anyone in a Abilene to Paris to Lufkin to Austin box seeing some icing. Some snow is also possible Sunday night into Monday especially near the Red River, but amounts will be light.

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57 minutes ago, aggiegeog said:

The icing appears most likely to be centered on a Palestine to Texarkana line where >0.10" of ice is very possible Sunday into Monday. With anyone in an Abilene to Paris to Lufkin to Austin box seeing some icing. Some snow is also possible Sunday night into Monday especially near the Red River, but amounts will be light.

Wa the lack of precip has killed this fun storm and turned it more into an icing event. Booooo for y’all. 

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13 hours ago, vwgrrc said:

 

But the both 12z and 18z suit came in pretty dry for Dallas is it not? It's cold for sure but dry.

I might said that too soon. Both 12z Gfs and Cmc are showing some icing for DFW. Cmc is actually quite strong on that. I think it's a bit concerning at this range to see some model convergence especially if they trend.

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11 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

I might said that too soon. Both 12z Gfs and Cmc are showing some icing for DFW. Cmc is actually quite strong on that. I think it's a bit concerning at this range to see some model convergence especially if they trend.

Models definitely are trending towards a bigger event for the NE quad of the state. Still not looking like a huge event but temps in low 20s will allow for efficient accumulations and if freezing rain the slow rates over a longer time period would allow for significant enough accretion to cause issues.

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1 hour ago, aggiegeog said:

Models definitely are trending towards a bigger event for the NE quad of the state. Still not looking like a huge event but temps in low 20s will allow for efficient accumulations and if freezing rain the slow rates over a longer time period would allow for significant enough accretion to cause issues.

Canadian is basically calling a somewhat big event for Dallas and it's showing a trend from yesterday. Definitely worth watching if Euro will join and what Gfs says next run. 

Edit - Euro joined the chat as well. Timing is slightly later than the other two. Not a terrible idea to start preparing early. 

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Euro has been very consistent with the ice event for at least NE TX and it looks like the impact area is expanding as models see that cold will progress south faster than previously modelled. GFS and Canadian are joining the party recently. This looks like a legit event with widespread 0.1-0.25" accretion. I am hoping that northern areas will get the 850mb front through quicker so that they can transition to sleet and even snow earlier than modelled.

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Looks like a lot of wind again for the state (similar to last Sunday - Monday's system), with the next incoming trough/cold front tonight - Friday.

A (rare) high wind watch is in effect for my area. I can see now why it was issued as GFS is showing around 70 kts @ 925Mb post-frontal, Friday morning across STX.

Also considering what happened in Brownsville with the hurricane force gusts from the LLJ reported there earlier on Monday.

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Now getting into early stages of Hi Res models being within range and as expected timelines are accelerated significantly. Now looking like a midday Sat arrival of Arctic air for DFW and reaching the coast by Sat night. Models have begun the expected south shift with heaviest precip axis now along I-30 vs I-40 previously. I still see room for another shift south. Looking like I-20 corridor and north may luck out and see sleet quickly turning to snow. That means nasty mix for Central and SE TX. Would not be shocked to see a secondary bout of high ratio snow Monday afternoon across N and NE TX. Extreme cold Tue and Wed mornings with some sub 0s possible in areas with significant snow cover. Brief semi warm up before another Arctic blast late week. Some may not even get above freezing during the mid week warmup.

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On 1/10/2024 at 6:56 PM, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

HGX is pretty much dismissing Euro solution of freezing rain in Houston on MLK Day, but both KTRK (ABC 13) and KHOU (I expected better from David Paul) seem all in on the Euro.  I trust NWS and the GFS.


I would definitely not discount the (historically tried & true) potential for at least some freezing drizzle here around the coast in these shallow arctic airmass scenarios. Which even just a bit of drizzle alone is enough to cause problems on the roads once surface temps reach 32 F.

If the incoming arctic airmass dome is indeed quite shallow (generally no more than 2 - 3 Kft above surface), past events during Jan/Feb like that have shown that it doesn't take much for even a really modest southerly (or even southwesterly) WAA overrunning pattern right above the cold dome to create some drizzle because of the strengthening condensation effect. Also, the 850Mb front normally tends to lag quite a bit in these airmass scenarios further south here on the Gulf coast.

I was reading on CRP AFD this afternoon that a few of the GFS ensembles were also starting to hint at the potential. HGX has also started to include freezing drizzle in their ZFP in the afternoon update today for Houston as well. 'Should get a better look at the freezing rain/drizzle potential this weekend when NAM starts to come more into play as it's basically the 'shallow airmass expert' model.

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Models generally showing >0.1" for areas E of I-35 with amounts increasing as you go NE. Canadian is most aggressive with QPF over 1" for NE corner of state. NAM and ICON are driest with maxes around 0.25".
Euro and UKMET are keeping S half of state above freezing Monday morning. Canadian and ICON are most aggressive with the cold bring the freeze line closer to the coast Monday. GFS in between.
Most models have the 850mb front near I-20 Monday morning with the 850mb freeze line lagging just behind that front.
Pretty safe bet that north of I-30 most dominant precip type is snow. South of I-20 and south to the surface freeze line will be mainly freezing rain. Making the area from Waco to Marshall and up to Texarkana the battleground.
Amounts of each of the precip types in a particular location are tricky at best to forecast right now especially in the battleground area. The best bet I can make right now is the area from Paris to Texarkana will see 3-8" of snow as that is where temps and qpf are easier to nail down. South of there some will get upwards of 2" of sleet and some may get 0.25" of freezing rain but cannot nail down where those will be yet.

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13 minutes ago, aggiegeog said:

Models generally showing >0.1" for areas E of I-35 with amounts increasing as you go NE. Canadian is most aggressive with QPF over 1" for NE corner of state. NAM and ICON are driest with maxes around 0.25".
Euro and UKMET are keeping S half of state above freezing Monday morning. Canadian and ICON are most aggressive with the cold bring the freeze line closer to the coast Monday. GFS in between.
Most models have the 850mb front near I-20 Monday morning with the 850mb freeze line lagging just behind that front.
Pretty safe bet that north of I-30 most dominant precip type is snow. South of I-20 and south to the surface freeze line will be mainly freezing rain. Making the area from Waco to Marshall and up to Texarkana the battleground.
Amounts of each of the precip types in a particular location are tricky at best to forecast right now especially in the battleground area. The best bet I can make right now is the area from Paris to Texarkana will see 3-8" of snow as that is where temps and qpf are easier to nail down. South of there some will get upwards of 2" of sleet and some may get 0.25" of freezing rain but cannot nail down where those will be yet.

12Z Euro seems shifting the battleground a bit north which can be a problem for Dfw if other model to follow. But i think all of them are trending a bit drier in the last 3 runs. 

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52 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

12Z Euro seems shifting the battleground a bit north which can be a problem for Dfw if other model to follow. But i think all of them are trending a bit drier in the last 3 runs. 

I do not notice a significant drying trend and maybe even an upward trend. I am NE TX focused admittedly. Seems like a south trend is starting as globals recognize they have the air mass boundary too far north. I would expect this south trend to continue on globals. Thankfully meso scale models are coming more into range to clear things up. A touch colder and the most north of I-20 stay snow for most of the event which could see a few spots hit over 6" of snow. 

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Canadian Reggie has a decent sleet/ice event from the Hill Country to the far W and NW suburbs of Houston.  Not sure how trustworthy a mesoscale is this far from the center of the domain and this far out in time.  18Z NAM not as impressive, but similar areas.  Total precip on the 12 NAM about 0.2 inches liquid equivalent of sleet and ice.  Reggie has a stripe of >0.5 liquid equivalent of snow, ice and sleet from just E of DFW towards Texarkana.

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With every new model run I’m losing hope on seeing anything decent expect some freezing drizzle here in DFW. Every model is coming in drier and drier, terrible waste of some very cold temps. Realistically still have 6 weeks to get something exciting this winter. 

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2 hours ago, TXHawk88 said:

With every new model run I’m losing hope on seeing anything decent expect some freezing drizzle here in DFW. Every model is coming in drier and drier, terrible waste of some very cold temps. Realistically still have 6 weeks to get something exciting this winter. 

Well. 12z Euro is not showing any drier and it's actually shifting the system a bit north toward Dallas. That said, there's still time for things like this to change drastically. 

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