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Texas 2024 Discussion/Observations


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1 hour ago, Stx_Thunder said:

Not surprised at all about the hype on here/out there now with currently MH Beryl. Just because a few *outlier models show a northerly track into US territory..

It’s already been busier than normal since last Thursday at the stores because of upcoming ID holiday, but it’s very (irritatingly) likely going to stay like that around here through early next week with Beryl, now. <_<

It was even crazy at the stores with just a TS Alberto tracking well south a few weeks ago, like if it was a hurricane…

- - -

Aside from already fairly well-established track consensus, Euro & GFS and ensemble consensus have been going pretty weak the past several days by the time it makes W Gulf landfall. Even the majority of hurricane models (especially TVCN) show it only at TS strength also by then. Canadian of course, is just going overboard (as per usual with these systems).

The TC pattern into the Gulf early this season has been for more southerly tracks (just like both TS Alberto & Chris did). Seeing these things over years, TC Beryl is likely also going to do a similar track into MX.

Not only that, it’s going to be fighting an already active SAL, as I’m seeing more plumes moving into the Caribbean and W Gulf this weekend on NASA/GMAO dust forecast model.

 - - - -

Overall, Beryl is looking to be another tropical rainmaker for TX (at least the southern half).

I count only 5 GEFS members with Texas landfall, and only 1 at hurricane strength.  A couple more 18Z Euro ensembles hit Texas with hurricanes, but it is about 6 members, ~10%.  It has time to change, but at ~6 days until a last landfall, the model spread should decrease.

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NHC track, if stays on or comes N of track, would have weather in South Texas,  Reliable models (not the ICON) suggest NHC track is close.  NHC does note higher than usual uncertainty related to the ridge strength.  Stronger storm in deeper steering likely comes farther N.  Multiple variables still at play.

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GFS and its ensemble suggest significant rain, but not flood producing, or a net positive.  GFS develops 96L, (some ensembles do, CMC doesn't but has ensemble members that do) which landfalls farther from Texas, but has a wider precipitation field that produces a large area S of TX 44 of 6 inch rains, @Stx_Thunder

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With TC Beryl (still likely to be mainly a rain/flood maker) coming around, things are definitely looking wet pretty much all of next week around the southern half. Even around San Antonio with that northward curve up there (after landfall near Brownsville), looking more likely now.

The Atlantic/Bermuda ridge looks to setup shop around Florida & SEUS, which would definitely keep the pattern convectively active for a lot of the Eastern half of state through next week with all the trop moisture continuing to flow northwestward into W Gulf.

There also looks to be a boundary in the state next week with the associated upper-trough north/east likely to cause some UL shear & inhibit Beryl’s intensity/organization. Which could sig increase totals for a good part of the CTX/ETX region with the added surface focus, UL support, and moisture pooling south of it. Along with all the Gulf moisture inflow still continuing.

- - -

Euro showing PW as high as 3.3 in. around the center. But very likely widespread 2.4 in. + areas north of it (on GFS also). 10” + area rainfall totals definitely not out of the question. Especially because of all this tropical stuff.

Euro going 20+ in. areas near Rio Grande. GFS showing 12+ in. areas around most of STX. In any case, there’s likely to be flooding issues. Especially around Deep STX region because of TS Alberto rain dump just a few weeks ago.

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Starting to see some kind of southwesterly shear impact on satellite alone to Beryl as the convective blowoff on the north side is moving more northeast now.

Both Euro & GFS ensembles have sig started to trend East on track. At this rate now, and the more southwesterly UL flow/shear just ahead of the TC’s current/predicted track could turn this thing northward, faster over W Gulf. All of STX would definitely be left mainly dry if that’s the case. ‘Can’t complain too much though since it’s a TC entity.

- LA landfall would not be out of the question now. Especially tracking more over northeast tip of Yucatán, as I’ve seen before. A more southern track through the inner part of the landmass & actually through BOC normally/historically brings a higher risk of hurricane landfall into STX.

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Even though the hurricane warnings weren’t necessary at all right around the coastal bend, got some of the southward moving, outer western N-S oriented convective bands from TC Beryl during the afternoon. ‘Looked a lot like a convectively active cold front moving through with a more defined southward moving outflow boundary and gusty north winds.

Seeing convection blowing up over TX Panhandle tonight from Plains troughing/front, it already looks like the TC has begun its right (north - northeastward) turn on latest satellite/radar imagery right now. So it looks like the “worse” may actually skoot around HOU area just off to the east tomorrow (after landfall). @Ed, snow and hurricane fan

- - -

It doesn’t necessarily look like things will dry out after TC Beryl moves out as next Plains front/trough looks to push into the state. It’ll likely move further south this time with deeper northerly flow assistance on outside western circulation of TC Beryl as it moves off to the northeast.

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At my house, I got 1.00" of rain on Sunday, and 5.25" yesterday from Beryl. Yesterday was pretty wild with all of the tornado warnings in E TX and NW LA. Winds were a little gusty at times yesterday afternoon, but thankfully we only lost power once for about 20 seconds and that was all.

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On 7/7/2024 at 10:03 PM, Stx_Thunder said:

Even though the hurricane warnings weren’t necessary at all right around the coastal bend, got some of the southward moving, outer western N-S oriented convective bands from TC Beryl during the afternoon. ‘Looked a lot like a convectively active cold front moving through with a more defined southward moving outflow boundary and gusty north winds.

Seeing convection blowing up over TX Panhandle tonight from Plains troughing/front, it already looks like the TC has begun its right (north - northeastward) turn on latest satellite/radar imagery right now. So it looks like the “worse” may actually skoot around HOU area just off to the east tomorrow (after landfall). @Ed, snow and hurricane fan

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It doesn’t necessarily look like things will dry out after TC Beryl moves out as next Plains front/trough looks to push into the state. It’ll likely move further south this time with deeper northerly flow assistance on outside western circulation of TC Beryl as it moves off to the northeast.

In Bedford, in the DFW Metroplex.  I've become habituated to air conditioning.  Some neighborhood roofs lost shingles, fences blown down, but not as bad damage wise as Ike.  Ike was mid-September and it wasn't hot, however.

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Been getting some decent convection (somewhat organized) going on for the past 2 days now with that troughing/boundary around STX. Good thunder Thursday morning for 2 hours but little/no rain where I was until this morning. The UL troughing is clearly more evident today with activity moving more northeastward. All the convective debris in the afternoons has been keeping temps down a good amount. Which is another great + this time of year and for the A/C.

Even if it substantially dries out this weekend or early next week, it doesn’t look like it’s going to last long as there looks to be another UL trough digging pretty far south toward the state again later next week. Euro & GFS also showing some MCS scenarios into NTX/ETX later next week as well with more southward progression with each new run. More of a very late spring/early fall type pattern rather than summer or tropical one.

Even more, H5 heights still don’t look to go up much over the state through next week with more attempted ridging that it would really be able crank up the heat on the drier days.

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The delayed transition from an El Nino to Neutral to La Nina ENSO state (now it may not happen until well into the Fall) has definitely thrown a wrench into what were the pattern expectations for this Summer.

It's good in that those impressive temp anomalies originally forecasted back in the Spring will now likely bust too high.

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The weakness in the ridge, aided by a weak cold front, should keep most of the state more rainy than normal for mid-July.  Currently 95F here, should be near the afternoon high, lower 70F dewpoints are producing HI values around 100F, which isn't bad.  And rain and lower than usual heights should help keep it cool.

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On 7/15/2024 at 5:06 PM, Powerball said:

Today's intra-hour high of 100*F was the 7th one this season for DFW.

 

Made it to 101*F at DFW today, hottest day of the year (and 8th 100*F+ day) thus far...

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13 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Generic non-severe thunderstorm killed power here for about 20 minutes.  I've lived in Austin, DFW area, Midland, Monahans and here, and noplace but here is it routine for the lights to go out during a non-severe storm.

Pretty common in Longview. Too many trees next to above ground electric lines.

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Aside from the current troughing & frontal boundary in the eastern part of state, it’s looking quite active next week with a similar non-tropical M-UL pattern (esp. mid-week), at least over the southern half as more & more higher-end thunder probs have been showing up around here for pretty much the entire week now on multi-global model output.

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- PW as high as 2.5” (could be higher). So several inches of rainfall & a flood risk looks like a decent possibility also around the coastal region looking at most recent Euro and GFS runs.

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17 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Generic non-severe thunderstorm killed power here for about 20 minutes.  I've lived in Austin, DFW area, Midland, Monahans and here, and noplace but here is it routine for the lights to go out during a non-severe storm.

It was actually a fairly solid linear convective complex & outflow moving through C/ETX region (from late last night - mid morning hours).

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Been occupied with other things and forgot to include flood risk tag early this week. But have definitely been enjoying this wet pattern but especially with some storms in the mix at times too since late last week.

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WPC has been maintaining Moderate ERO risk over the mid-upper coast for today. It’s likely they’ll have to include at least more broad SLGT risk areas around the coast the next 2 days with all the new heavy rainfall tacked on this week now. Especially with the near 2.5” PW trop moisture environment at times (near record value maxes this time of year around the coast according to WPC) hanging around for a few more days on both Euro & GFS. Though another MDT risk area of some sort wouldn’t be out of question. Lift & support aloft should not be a problem especially as we remain well in between the Atlantic & Pacific Highs with a pronounced weakness pattern remaining aloft over the state until next week.

- - -
Seen 4 in. totals today (alone) looking at rainfall data now around the coastal bend, and heavy rainfall/flood threat still doesn’t look like it’s over by any means over the coastal region yet, at least through Saturday. But even Sunday still looks fairly active now around STX before things really shut off going into next week. The mosquitos and grass are basically gonna be hell next week around here. Especially being summer right now.

-

Edwards plateau just northwest of San Antonio, and Houston area - ETX region have seen about 10 in. Just within the last 7 days.

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Seeing actual ongoing convective evidence of a fairly strong shortwave getting into NTX early this morning ahead of more troughing diving south into the Plains/mid-south with more established northerly M-UL flow.

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Most convective models did not have any good handle on the ongoing MCS in the DFW area early this morning (pushing steadily south), but all main global ensembles (GEFS, EPS, Canadian) do show decent coverage of some kind of QPF southward into the south-central part of the state San Angelo - Houston into Monday now, on very latest runs. They also seem to be trending toward lower than previously forecasted heights (less ridging, more troughing or shortwave influence) this upcoming week.

So it doesn’t look to be as dry in the state now as previous runs had been showing for this new week. But most of the pattern so far this summer has already involved more troughing than ridging (way different from 2023 summer overall now), so not very surprising either way.

- Convective pattern does look to definitely pick up again the following week (12th) for the eastern half.

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