Texas 2024 Discussion/Observations

[aggiegeog]

After a few runs trending away from a phase most models are back to phasing. Its the difference in a cold light rain and a big statewide winter storm.

[andyhb]

Huge potential with that system for the S Plains in the latter part of next week if it doesn't get trapped in the SW and at least partially phases with the northern stream.

[Powerball]

For what little it's worth, the EURO ensembles has a fairly widespread 6-8" mean for North Texas, which is impressive at face value.

The GEFS and CMCE aren't bad-looking either.

[Powerball]

23 hours ago, Powerball said:

For what little it's worth, the EURO ensembles has a fairly widespread 6-8" mean for North Texas, which is impressive at face value.

The GEFS and CMCE aren't bad-looking either.

 

Ensembles remain remarkably consistent, especially the EURO, with both placement and mean totals.

[aggiegeog]

Things look really good for DFW as far as snow. For the Austin to Tyler corridor, things are murkier with temps in question. I still lean towards a minimal warm nose so thinking mainly snow or rain. Still watching for if there is a warm nose for the first part of the storm in that corridor. As the upper trough nears the cold pool aloft should transition things to purely rain or snow.

[aggiegeog]

Becoming increasingly likely that this is an all time type event for DFW. Definitely a top 10 event for them and maybe a top 3. Those caught in convective bands could see over a foot.

[DFWWeather]

7 hours ago, aggiegeog said:

Becoming increasingly likely that this is an all time type event for DFW. Definitely a top 10 event for them and maybe a top 3. Those caught in convective bands could see over a foot.

I certainly agree with you. This will be one for the record books should the forecast hold. Widespread 5 to 10 inches with isolated higher amounts for the Metroplex. The event will rival the February 2010 event (though this looks colder), January 1964, and February 1978. Low temps will crater to the upper teens on Saturday with that much snowfall. This will disrupt travel not only Thursday/Friday, but likely into the weekend as well.

[aggiegeog]

1 hour ago, DFWWeather said:

I certainly agree with you. This will be one for the record books should the forecast hold. Widespread 5 to 10 inches with isolated higher amounts for the Metroplex. The event will rival the February 2010 event (though this looks colder), January 1964, and February 1978. Low temps will crater to the upper teens on Saturday with that much snowfall. This will disrupt travel not only Thursday/Friday, but likely into the weekend as well.

It almost always takes longer than expected to warm up after a big snow. I agree that Sat morning will be in the teens for many. Outside of DFW some may push single digits. 

There is a little wave on Sat that could drop a bit more freezing precip. Then another storm next week that has snow potential. This is not a one storm event. 

[Powerball]

Take it with a tiny grain of salt (CBS in San Antonio):

https://x.com/RDR8ER/status/1876269941646831953?t=3OHCNog_-wVj0wtiFQll0w&s=19

[gwlee7]

As long as the power grid holds... bring it on. 

[Powerball]

12 minutes ago, gwlee7 said:

As long as the power grid holds... bring it on. 

Amen to that!

[aggiegeog]

19 minutes ago, gwlee7 said:

As long as the power grid holds... bring it on. 

I think DFW is is safely in the cold sector and should stay all snow. Maybe isolated outages where heavy snow brings down weak limbs. Now south of a Waco to Longview line could see substantial icing and have power issues.

[aggiegeog]

We are now within range of the higher res models so we should start to get a better idea on the details of this event. They are showing less WAA and light precip during the day Wed ahead of the main event. They will soon be in range to see the main event.

[Powerball]

EURO Ensembles look their most impressive yet, although like the GEFS they did shift a bit NW.

[gwlee7]

2 hours ago, aggiegeog said:

I think DFW is is safely in the cold sector and should stay all snow. Maybe isolated outages where heavy snow brings down weak limbs. Now south of a Waco to Longview line could see substantial icing and have power issues.

Not worried about limbs.. I am worried about the grid itself.   I went without heat or electricity for 5 days when it failed in 2021.   But, yes, all snow > freezing rain every time.  

[canderson]

DFW looks prime for a really nice snow - one larger than most have seen in a good while. ZR will be an issue from Canton on down I think. Per usual in ET ... 

[Powerball]

12z EURO Ensemble Mean...

[gwlee7]

Lol @Powerball.  We don’t want to be in the “jackpot” this early out.  

[Powerball]

12 minutes ago, gwlee7 said:

Lol @Powerball.  We don’t want to be in the “jackpot” this early out.  

Bear in mind, that is the mean of 50 different alternative outputs from the ECMWF model (not just the OP or operational model). A few duds mixed in there, but also numerous 10"+ big dogs too. The fact that it has been consistently showing a 6-8" mean for Dallas is pretty exceptional, especially given EURO Ensembles have a reputation of being more reliable than the Emsembles for the other models.

 

[aggiegeog]

1 hour ago, gwlee7 said:

Not worried about limbs.. I am worried about the grid itself.   I went without heat or electricity for 5 days when it failed in 2021.   But, yes, all snow > freezing rain every time.  

Temp wise this is not a particularly cold event. Highs in the upper 20s and lows in the teens happens every year. And that cold is just in N TX the rest of the state will have highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s. 

A big part of the 2021 failure was freezing rain affecting wind farms and I don't see that being a big issue across areas where the wind farms are located. 

[Powerball]

1 minute ago, aggiegeog said:

Temp wise this is not a particularly cold event. Highs in the upper 20s and lows in the teens happens every year. And that cold is just in N TX the rest of the state will have highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s. 

A big part of the 2021 failure was freezing rain affecting wind farms and I don't see that being a big issue across areas where the wind farms are located. 

The bigget threat, power outage-wise, will be poles and limbs weighed down from the plastering of snow if it ends up having a high water content.

[gwlee7]

Fair points to be sure.   And I wasn’t laughing at “you” but the potential “jinx”.    I wouldn’t mind a decent snow.   
 

side note:  we probably live within 30 mins of each other.  My actual location is pretty much where Lewisville, Flower Mound, and Coppell bump into each other.  

[aggiegeog]

1 hour ago, canderson said:

DFW looks prime for a really nice snow - one larger than most have seen in a good while. ZR will be an issue from Canton on down I think. Per usual in ET ... 

I think models are way overdoing the freezing rain threat. yes there will be some but I do not anticipate a big area of freezing rain. a few spots in the Hill Country and Deep East Texas may be the exception to that. For the most part I think this is a rain/sleet/snow event, I do not buy into the major WAA that some models are trying to show.

[canderson]

12 minutes ago, aggiegeog said:

I think models are way overdoing the freezing rain threat. yes there will be some but I do not anticipate a big area of freezing rain. a few spots in the Hill Country and Deep East Texas may be the exception to that. For the most part I think this is a rain/sleet/snow event, I do not buy into the major WAA that some models are trying to show.

Fair enough - I've not looked closely at the thermals. I just always expect (and know from growing up there) a warm nose seems to always take over Tyler to Longview. 

[Powerball]

Frankie has spoken!

https://x.com/frankiemacd/status/1876364861032341522?t=sK9mv32YXQL2TqaV_0vAfw&s=19

[aggiegeog]

12 minutes ago, canderson said:

Fair enough - I've not looked closely at the thermals. I just always expect (and know from growing up there) a warm nose seems to always take over Tyler to Longview. 

That is for sure. My current thinking is that the new high over the Rockies will mitigate the WAA at least along and north of the I-20 corridor. Obviously this is E TX and WAA could win out.

Around here, I expect light snow Wed night. Intensity will increase while precip becomes more of a mix Thu. By Thu evening/night the trough nears cooling the mid levels for precip to go back to all snow. The snow should end Friday morning as the low passes to the east.

Something like >0.1" ice, 1" sleet and 2-3" snow for Tyler area. Maybe .1" ice, 1" sleet and 2" snow for Longview. I live north of I-20 so I am hoping mine leans even more in on mainly snow but gonna be a close call.

[Powerball]

18z NAM shifted NW, lookimg a lot like the 12z GFS and last night's EURO.

Also, update from FWD...

[vwgrrc]

18z NAM seems wonky. It shows a foot of snow for half of the state... ICON actually came in drier

[Powerball]

16 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

18z NAM seems wonky. It shows a foot of snow for half of the state... ICON actually came in drier

Drier *AND* warmer. Real nasty work...

But the ICON is a fairly terrible model, even worse than the NAM.

[aggiegeog]

We are talking about a very wet storm, key for this forecast is nailing where the column stays sub 32F. For example my location is modelled for >1.5" QPF while the entire column rides within 2C of freezing the whole event from the surface to above 700mb. That would result in a constant fluctuation of precip types so could be talking a 1" elevated surface only ice storm, 3" plus sleet and snow mix or a foot of snow. Tiny variations in the atmosphere will make massive differences.