January 2024

[Stormlover74]

7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Your thinking of the 2021 storm.

The storm I am referring to missed us south. In fact it was south of DC. Hammered south and central Virginia through Norfolk and the Delmarva. 

That was the early Jan storm. The late Jan storm crushed LI which is what he's probably thinking of

[donsutherland1]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Don I take it that 1972-73 was too cold to make this list although it was the previous record holder for least snowfall in a season?

1972-73 finished 10th on the final season ranking. It had a winter mean temperature of 35.6°, which played a key role in where it stood.

[donsutherland1]

3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Hi Don,

Looking at some of the worst 5 year runs in terms of snowfall to compare to the last 5 years INCLUDING THIS YEAR in an assumption that CPK is shut out, even if unlikely. I focused on 1928 through 1932 today. Interesting comparison:

1928 through 1932 avg - 11.76

2020 through 2024 avg - 13.18

1933 ended up with 27. Hopefully next year yields the same results.

Good information. Like you, I hope next winter will wind up significantly more snowy.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, North and West said:

Artificially suppress? Isn’t tree growth the literal definition of natural growth and occurrences?


.

Not when the the trees block the thermometer and radiation shield from direct sunlight. More rural weather stations have the thermometers in clearings not under a dense canopy of trees. The Central Park great lawn is probably at least 2-3° warmer during the warm season at peak daily heating than under a tree canopy near the castle. Under some weather conditions the difference at peak heating could be even higher than 3°. So the great lawn isn’t that different in regard to highs than EWR and LGA. But the shaded areas are at least 2-3° cooler. That’s why the old site in the park used to average more 90° days than LGA but a few less than EWR. The taller trees are also reducing the winds at the park. This is why NYC hasn’t been able to beat its all-time highest wind gust from the early 70s.

Notice how the sensors are located away from obstructions like trees.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Not when the the trees block the thermometer and radiation shield from direct sunlight. More rural weather stations have the thermometers in clearings not under a dense canopy of trees. The Central Park great lawn is probably at least 2-3° warmer during the warm season at peak daily heating than under a tree canopy near the castle. Under some weather conditions the difference at peak heating could be even higher than 3°. So the great lawn isn’t that different in regard to highs than EWR and LGA. But the shaded areas are at least 2-3° cooler. That’s why the old site in the park used to average more 90° days than LGA but a few less than EWR.

Notice how the sensors are located away from obstructions like trees.

 

 

But why were the sensors moved and not kept in that area where they were in the 90s?

And is this also why NYC doesn't see long sustained heatwaves anymore?  Heatwaves of 7 days and longer have become very rare, compared to the 90s when we had our most 90 degree summers.

 

[Allsnow]

Don’t let @MJO812 look at the 12z gfs 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Don’t let @MJO812 look at the 12z gfs 

He already did and doesn't believe it WOW

 

[bluewave]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

But why were the sensors moved and not kept in that area where they were in the 90s?

And is this also why NYC doesn't see long sustained heatwaves anymore?  Heatwaves of 7 days and longer have become very rare, compared to the 90s when we had our most 90 degree summers.

 

It’s tough to get extended heatwaves anymore since the shade is at least 2-3° cooler at peak heating then then the sensors were out in the open before the 90s. Plus when the foliage is wet there could be even increased cooling. 

[donsutherland1]

3 hours ago, psv88 said:

No sun tomorrow now. So no sun until Tuesday now. 
 

this has to be one of the cloudiest winters ever? @donsutherland1

Through 11 am, NYC has had 203 hours of overcast conditions this month. Last year, January had 277 such hours through the end of the month. The most I could find was 293 hours in 2017. Data only goes back to 1996.

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, dieselbug said:

 

Don,

Just curious where the winter of 1972-1973 is on the list, especially seeing 1971-72 make the top ten. 

I think I read that Newark had less than 2" snow for the winter and was the only winter that PHL had no measurable snow recorded at all!

The above data is only through January 25th. The final end-of-season ranking had 1972-73 10th (mainly because it was much colder than a number of other low snowfall winters with a DJF mean temperature of 35.6°).

[Allsnow]

74 at DCA currently 

[BucksCO_PA]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

74 at DCA currently 

& that's still 5 degrees off the daily record, the second warmest JAN high temp is 75 degrees

[BucksCO_PA]

Dover, DE dropped 10 degrees (69-59) between 11:00-12:00, wind turned around from the north

[forkyfork]

12 minutes ago, BucksCO_PA said:

& that's still 5 degrees off the daily record, the second warmest JAN high temp is 75 degrees

because they have a sea breeze right now lol. iad set a monthly record of 76

[Allsnow]

Just now, forkyfork said:

because they have a sea breeze right now lol. iad set a monthly record of 76

That could have been us…

 

ugh 

[forkyfork]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

That could have been us…

 

ugh 

can someone hit 80?

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

can someone hit 80?

Wow. Just your typical late January 80 degree day @ DCA. Like winters of old 

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Not when the the trees block the thermometer and radiation shield from direct sunlight. More rural weather stations have the thermometers in clearings not under a dense canopy of trees. The Central Park great lawn is probably at least 2-3° warmer during the warm season at peak daily heating than under a tree canopy near the castle. Under some weather conditions the difference at peak heating could be even higher than 3°. So the great lawn isn’t that different in regard to highs than EWR and LGA. But the shaded areas are at least 2-3° cooler. That’s why the old site in the park used to average more 90° days than LGA but a few less than EWR. The taller trees are also reducing the winds at the park. This is why NYC hasn’t been able to beat its all-time highest wind gust from the early 70s.

Notice how the sensors are located away from obstructions like trees.

 

 

I get the standards (and the importance of adhering to standards) for measuring air temperature, but it seems counterintuitive that direct sun on a temperature sensor is bad, but direct sun on the shield over that sensor is good.

How about in a densely forested community where the only open ground is where the sensor is located?  It might tell you something useful about the air mass without accurately reflecting the surrounding conditions.  The same could be said about the current state of affairs in Central Park.

[forkyfork]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Wow. Just your typical late January 80 degree day @ DCA. Like winters of old 

 

[BucksCO_PA]

25 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

because they have a sea breeze right now lol. iad set a monthly record of 76

LOL, a sea breeze that has them 1 degree lower than Dulles, nice try

Temp data at Dulles only goes back to 1962, the 79 degree JAN records at DC & Baltimore were set in 1950. 

[the_other_guy]

47 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

74 at DCA currently 

DC is much warmer than us. 

Normal high there for today is 45F

sometimes that gets glossed over.

Still very warm in the low 70s but it would be much warmer if it was in the low 70s here relative to normal

[bluewave]

30 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

I get the standards (and the importance of adhering to standards) for measuring air temperature, but it seems counterintuitive that direct sun on a temperature sensor is bad, but direct sun on the shield over that sensor is good.

How about in a densely forested community where the only open ground is where the sensor is located?  It might tell you something useful about the air mass without accurately reflecting the surrounding conditions.  The same could be said about the current state of affairs in Central Park.

The Pine Barrens are one of the most densely forested areas of Long Island and the official weather BNL equipment is located in a clearing. That’s the national and global standard for official weather observing sites that measure temperature for meteorological purposes. But under canopy temperatures are mostly limited to studies about wildlife and biology.

https://www.bnl.gov/weather/

 

[forkyfork]

20 minutes ago, BucksCO_PA said:

LOL, a sea breeze that has them 1 degree lower than Dulles, nice try

Temp data at Dulles only goes back to 1962, the 79 degree JAN records at DC & Baltimore were set in 1950. 

whatever you need to tell yourself 

[BucksCO_PA]

16 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

DC is much warmer than us. 

Normal high there for today is 45F

sometimes that gets glossed over.

Still very warm in the low 70s but it would be much warmer if it was in the low 70s here relative to normal

Since 1872 DC has recorded 75 degrees or higher on 13 occasions during the month of JAN. 9 of those occasions were before they even started keeping records at Dulles.

[forkyfork]

Just now, BucksCO_PA said:

Since 1872 DC has recorded 75 degrees or higher on 13 occasions during the month of JAN. 9 of those occasions were before they even started keeping records at Dulles.

you whenever there's a record high somewhere:

[donsutherland1]

The January 26, 2024 12z run of the GFS is an outlier among the global models, both for the near-term (next 72 hours) and medium-term (240 hours). Its 10:1 maps show an extremely snowy 10-day period centered parts of New England. Boston will be used as an example to illustrate the extreme nature of the run. The 12z run shows 33.4" of snow at Boston over the 10-day period ending February 5, 2024 12z.

That map is extremely unlikely to verify.

There have been just four prior cases where Boston has seen 33.0" or more snowfall over a 10-day period (overlapping periods excluded). None of the highlighted periods was even close to being as mild as the one that is forecast on the 12z GFS.

In sum, the 12z GFS solution through 240 hours should be disregarded:

• It's an outlier among global models
• It has no support among the ensembles
• It calls for the kind of snowfall that has not occurred before with such mild conditions as forecast

[donsutherland1]

29 minutes ago, BucksCO_PA said:

LOL, a sea breeze that has them 1 degree lower than Dulles, nice try

Temp data at Dulles only goes back to 1962, the 79 degree JAN records at DC & Baltimore were set in 1950. 

Washington, DC (DCA) has hit 80° for a high so far.

[BucksCO_PA]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

Washington, DC (DCA) has hit 80° for a high so far.

High was 76 thru 1:00pm, up 4 degrees in the past 1/2 hr?

80 would be an all time JAN record.

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, BucksCO_PA said:

High was 76 thru 1:00pm, up 4 degrees in the past 1/2 hr?

80 would be an all time JAN record.

Yes, it would break the January monthly record set on this date in 1950. We'll see when the final numbers are out.

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Washington, DC (DCA) has hit 80° for a high so far.

It’s pretty ridiculous for DCA to even go above 75° in January during an El Niño which is supposed to be cooler in the Mid-Atlantic. All the previous years were La Ninas or ENSO neutral.

 

Time Series Summary for WASHINGTON REAGAN NATIONAL AIRPORT, VA - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	ONI
1	1950	79	-1.5
2	2002	77	-0.1
3	1975	76	-0.5
4	1974	75	-1.8