TimB Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just woke up. Are we going to fall short of an advisory level event AGAIN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 My weather channel says 1” for today now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 7 minutes ago, PghPirates27 said: My weather channel says 1” for today now Add that to the 1” that was officially observed at the NWS at 7am and that’s 2”, which means an advisory bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Less to shovel atleast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Looks like the weenie brigade off and running. Overall - nice snow on snow morning. About 1.5” new. Just can’t seem to get any good rates, which was always a possibility. Picking up a bit now. Positive side - should have a decent duration AND the meso’s hint to some squally looking bands later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 I’d like to know the secret to viewing a 2” event positively when every single model had us getting at least 3 and the NWS pretty much guaranteed it (90% chance). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 10 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: Looks like the weenie brigade off and running. Overall - nice snow on snow morning. About 1.5” new. Just can’t seem to get any good rates, which was always a possibility. Picking up a bit now. Positive side - should have a decent duration AND the meso’s hint to some squally looking bands later. Because it looks like another let down of event. We do those great here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 It kinda looks like how we thought it was going to go. 1" so far with several hours of light fluffy snow to go. 3" will happen with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, TimB said: I’d like to know the secret to viewing a 2” event positively when every single model had us getting at least 3 and the NWS pretty much guaranteed it (90% chance). Just not caring. Honestly try it. I just find is hilarious they canceled school for an inch or two of snow. Even though it's not their fault, NWS is gonna get crushed for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 is it snowing where everyone is?? I have snow falling and will for several hours. WV looks good. Radar looks weak, but it was never going to look amazing. We were expecting 3-5" over the span of 14 hours. What kind of rates did you think we were getting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: is it snowing where everyone is?? I have snow falling and will for several hours. WV looks good. Radar looks like, but it was never going to look amazing. We were expecting 3-5" over the span of 14 hours. What kind of rates did you think we were getting? Yeah it was a juiced up clipper. Looks like there's not enough lift for heavier rates here. The advisory is for 3-5, and we still may reach the 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Shortwave trough extending from the Upper Great Lakes to the Tennessee Valley region. Snowfall rates have been light, with the 12Z PIT sounding showing poor lapse rates in the dendritic region. Lowered additional snowfall amounts to account for the lower snow/liquid equivalent ratios and less favorable ascent. Better jet support and divergence was south of the region across the Appalachians. The latest RAP output shows favorable omega to maintain the snow through the afternoon I was a bit worried when models adjusted south yesterday with the vort pass and seemed to lose some of the moisture if we might also lose some of the dynamics needed to maximize the liquid to snow ratio. Its such a difficult thing to pin down though I didn't want to be a deb for no reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Ehh… maybe I’m being too positive. I don’t see anything wrong with the 3-5 forecast. Sometimes you end up on the low end. . 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 4 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Shortwave trough extending from the Upper Great Lakes to the Tennessee Valley region. Snowfall rates have been light, with the 12Z PIT sounding showing poor lapse rates in the dendritic region. Lowered additional snowfall amounts to account for the lower snow/liquid equivalent ratios and less favorable ascent. Better jet support and divergence was south of the region across the Appalachians. The latest RAP output shows favorable omega to maintain the snow through the afternoon I was a bit worried when models adjusted south yesterday with the vort pass and seemed to lose some of the moisture if we might also lose some of the dynamics needed to maximize the liquid to snow ratio. Its such a difficult thing to pin down though I didn't want to be a deb for no reason. And yet your instincts turned out to be correct, because every storm finds a way to bust around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 3 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Shortwave trough extending from the Upper Great Lakes to the Tennessee Valley region. Snowfall rates have been light, with the 12Z PIT sounding showing poor lapse rates in the dendritic region. Lowered additional snowfall amounts to account for the lower snow/liquid equivalent ratios and less favorable ascent. Better jet support and divergence was south of the region across the Appalachians. The latest RAP output shows favorable omega to maintain the snow through the afternoon I was a bit worried when models adjusted south yesterday with the vort pass and seemed to lose some of the moisture if we might also lose some of the dynamics needed to maximize the liquid to snow ratio. Its such a difficult thing to pin down though I didn't want to be a deb for no reason. Yeah one final reply for a bit but I also was concerned when the models trended south. That's why you can't just look at snowfall maps and make a forecast. Oh well even if we get 2 or 3 instead of 4-5 it's not like we are missing out on something bigger. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said: Ehh… maybe I’m being too positive. I don’t see anything wrong with the 3-5 forecast. Sometimes you end up on the low end. . Good point, its a range for a reason, can't just look at the high number and run with it. This always looked like a light long duration setup but with better dendrite growth, instead its those tiny flakes that don't amount to much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Got some good looking snow out there right now. At least where I am. I’ll take this. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just measured 2” on what was previously bare area. Had some briefly moderate snow, but back to pixie. Still holding out for some squalls later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 7 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Got some good looking snow out there right now. At least where I am. I’ll take this. . Regeneration showing up on radar. Models were indicating a possible second wind mid to late morning, after a brief lull. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 44 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: Just measured 2” on what was previously bare area. Had some briefly moderate snow, but back to pixie. Still holding out for some squalls later. 43 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said: Regeneration showing up on radar. Models were indicating a possible second wind mid to late morning, after a brief lull. Yeah I think once we get the wind shift NWS to the WNW we see an uptick again. Couple mesos hinted at some lake bands, and one briefly with Huron connection. If those materialize it would be high ratio fluff with a few localized "winners". 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 6 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Yeah I think once we get the wind shift NWS to the WNW we see an uptick again. Couple mesos hinted at some lake bands, and one briefly with Huron connection. If those materialize it would be high ratio fluff with a few localized "winners". Putting some positive energy out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Snowing a bit heavier here now than earlier. Looks like around 2 inches here as well thus far. Seems to be playing out as expected. This was only ever supposed to be 3.5 or 4 inches over like 14 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Seeing a few 3” reports around Allegheny and Greene counties. I’m at 2.5”. Slow grind, but a nice winter day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Think I spoke too soon about this being a complete disaster. It’s probably going to be a slight letdown when all is said and done, but we’ve had much worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 I think this storm is performing exactly as I thought. Coming up on 3 inches. If I get one more that will be 4. Long duration light snow. Looks beautiful 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joecon Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 hour ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Yeah I think once we get the wind shift NWS to the WNW we see an uptick again. Couple mesos hinted at some lake bands, and one briefly with Huron connection. If those materialize it would be high ratio fluff with a few localized "winners". I know what WNW is, but what is NWS??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Seeing more reports of 3” and 4” and less reports from TimB 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, Burghblizz said: Seeing more reports of 3” and 4” and less reports from TimB The mark of a decent event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 20 minutes ago, TimB said: Think I spoke too soon about this being a complete disaster. It’s probably going to be a slight letdown when all is said and done, but we’ve had much worse. lol its alright. We all go off the edge sometimes... Enjoy the snow. Remember the absence of winter last year and try to appreciate a day like today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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