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Central PA Winter 23/24


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8 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Well they were chosen because the PIAA office is next door, is it not?

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk
 

I have no clue but that is amazing if so. IMO they should rotate between Pittsburgh, PHL and maybe State College if the get a better stadium than the current erector set. 

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Most noteworthy weather item I see in the short-medium range is a strong frontal passage this coming Wed Night, which has been pretty persistent on guidance. Perhaps worthy of some kind of a brief changeover at the end and a sharp temp drop with some windy weather Thursday. Aside from a brief shot of some cold tomorrow and tomorrow night,  thats about it in terms of cold or snow the next 6-10+ by the looks of it. 

Thru 15 days all ensembles maintain +EPO/WPO and only take a really negative PNA to a somewhat less negative PNA. Until we turn the tables with those teleconnections we’re going to continue to deal with mild, modified Pacific air at the lower levels dominating the lower 48 even if we get NAO blocking that starts developing and helps undercut some storms. Just the story of the winter really. It was 53 for a high here this afternoon, despite 18z models initializing with <540 dm thickness over most of C-PA. There’s just no low level cold. 

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7 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Most noteworthy weather item I see in the short-medium range is a strong frontal passage this coming Wed Night, which has been pretty persistent on guidance. Perhaps worthy of some kind of a brief changeover at the end and a sharp temp drop with some windy weather Thursday. Aside from a brief shot of some cold tomorrow and tomorrow night,  thats about it in terms of cold or snow the next 6-10+ by the looks of it. 

Thru 15 days all ensembles maintain +EPO/WPO and only take a really negative PNA to a somewhat less negative PNA. Until we turn the tables with those teleconnections we’re going to continue to deal with mild, modified Pacific air at the lower levels dominating the lower 48 even if we get NAO blocking that starts developing and helps undercut some storms. Just the story of the winter really. It was 53 for a high here this afternoon, despite 18z models initializing with <540 dm thickness over most of C-PA. There’s just no low level cold. 

The only reason to have hope for more snow is that long range modeling is so bad that it might fail with the warm pattern. And then ask yourself how often does that happen?  

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16 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

The only reason to have hope for more snow is that long range modeling is so bad that it might fail with the warm pattern. And then ask yourself how often does that happen?  

That anafrontal snow is something to keep an eye on.  We are 1-1 this year with it.   Only made it to 42 here today. 

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4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

That anafrontal snow is something to keep an eye on.  We are 1-1 this year with it.   Only made it to 42 here today. 

I  agree on the anafrontal threat, but they're usually low probability. Gunna have to wait until we're within 72 hours of threat to take it seriously imho, assuming it's being advertised as a threat.

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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

The biggest issue I have (with meat eaters) that visit is ordering Bar-B-Q sandwiches at traditional PA restaurants.   They think they are getting a slab of beef in bread not sloppy joes. 

The next good piece of brisket I have anywhere north of Texas will be the first.  

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4 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The latest Euro Weeklies offer some hope for the last 2 weeks of March with a workable pattern & some cold air available.

IMG_5333.png

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after the models got the second half of feb cold and crapped the bed now its going to be warmer im just now buying it lol 

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13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

31 and ice coated tree limbs and non-road surfaces so a bit of a surprise ice storm here.    Radar shows snow in York, Lanco, and Leb.

Good morning & congrats on the ice.

York & Lancaster are showing current temps near 40, but maybe they have some flakes mixing in?

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20 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Good morning & congrats on the ice.

York & Lancaster are showing current temps near 40, but maybe they have some flakes mixing in?

Yea, I doubt it is laying but was mentioning what precip type the radar was deriving.  Here is latest scan.  This AM was never going to be one for road issues.

 

image.thumb.png.8e86916e8a1946e06247aacf1048fbb9.png

 

 

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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

That would a shock to the spring fling.  LOL.  Not counting on that until I can see the whites of its eyes. 

Agreed, but every once in a while these can work.

Many of us scored around an inch of snow from this type of event back in early December.

It’s probably the only chance until a potential pattern change towards mid March.

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47 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Agreed, but every once in a while these can work.

Many of us scored around an inch of snow from this type of event back in early December.

It’s probably the only chance until a potential pattern change towards mid March.

Last time of real consequence was in March, 2014 in the magical winter of 13/14. The one in December this winter was meh imby.

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6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Last time of real consequence was in March, 2014 in the magical winter of 13/14. The one in December this winter was meh imby.

One could argue that we are only 11 days past a good anafrontal snow.    Different situation but a deepening low pressure changing the air direction is technically a front. 

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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

31 and ice coated tree limbs and non-road surfaces so a bit of a surprise ice storm here.    Radar shows snow in parts of York, Lanco, and Leb counties.

All surfaces just wet here with .13” in the gauge. Low of 35, currently 37.  We are on our way to Pittsburgh today with the kids. Gonna be a cold one. 

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1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

All surfaces just wet here with .13” in the gauge. Low of 35, currently 37.  We are on our way to Pittsburgh today with the kids. Gonna be a cold one. 

The snow there is progged to slip south of us over here but it has been running a bit farther north and east than progged.  If quick enough maybe you see some flakes.

image.thumb.png.8abbbe090aca612348f522d05b81d080.png

 

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