Itstrainingtime Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Plus, some of it is what is being verified. I suspect PSU is talking LR patterns and the model's ability to slowly adjust changes through runs vs. jumping from one extreme to another. But I meant what I said about the EC yesterday. It was dethroned long ago for my purposes of shorter ranger forecasting. I ignored it all summer because it was rarely correct for ground truth weather. 5+ years ago, you could pretty much take a Euro/Ukie combo to the bank. If they were onboard, it was time for Blizz to fire up the blower. Today, there isn't that "go to"; rather, we have various models of differing levels of accuracy. The Euro's upgrade was a downgrade on accuracy. At least so it seems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 20 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Up to the Icon to save the Icon storm. There seems to be less spacing between the vort passing to our north on Thursday evening and the one set to hit us. Need ours to slow or the other to speed up. I think we've lost any soitgern moisture of consequence too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: There seems to be less spacing between the vort passing to our north on Thursday evening and the one set to hit us. Need ours to slow or the other to speed up. I think we've lost any soitgern moisture of consequence too. The rgem surprisingly came north with the vort though it too basically loses it. But, yea the Friday night vort has sped up some and the whole moisture profile changed in 12-24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The rgem surprisingly came north with the vort though it too basically loses it. But, yea the Friday night vort has sped up some and the whole moisture profile changed in 12-24 hours. Rgem is good for PA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 16 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Rgem is good for PA. Lollipops of over 3" in the LSV. Icon took a slight step back with intensity of the snow but still decent. Well more than slight for northern LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Interpreting LR/SR modeling is an art IMHO. It has taken me 30 years to find a good model combination to rely on. FWIW this how I do it. I was spot on this last storm even the though fellow posters told me hogwash. I called for 8-12 on sunday and stuck with my guns in the LV 1. Rely on the the 10 day Euro on the tenth day to sniff out the potential storm being evolved. Any potential storm event that shows up on the tenth day count it as a storm in play even if the other models say no way jose. 2. Wait at day 7 for the GFS to actually sniff out the same storm that Euro hit on day 10. The 15 day GFS is only somewhat accurate at 7 days 3. Wait until the NAM/RGEM comes into range at 84 hours together with the Euro at three days to start forming any type of snow accumulations predictions 4. At 36 hours narrow your the predictions using the NAM, RGEM, HRRR and Euro in that order 5. At 24 hours use the 12km NAM and HRRR only Trust me, if you use this game plan, you will be close to the actual snowfall accumulations. Remember these are modeling tools are from the tool box and how you use those tools make a hell of a big difference. Using these models is like using the right wrench, metric or standard for the right type of bolt or in this case the best model for the right type of storm event. Miller B's and hybrids storm events, I would follow the aforementioned pattern. On MIller A's primarily the Euro the entire way with the NAM at the very end. Anything else like a clipper, only the NAM at 36 hours. This true and tried method has worked well for me since the early 90's 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 A windy, cold 36 at noon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: A windy, cold 36 at noon. A windy, pleasant to be outside in short sleeves 37 here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Ukie says "if you're in the LSV and you don't live in Delta or Peach Bottom, you ain't gettin' nuttin this weekend." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Ukie says "if you're in the LSV and you don't live in Delta or Peach Bottom, you ain't gettin' nuttin this weekend." And it is like 1/10th of an inch for those areas. LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I'm over the cold. I spent last evening studying the Cleveland Indi... Guardians schedule as Progressive Field is the next stop on my stadium tour and well, it's time to wrap this shit up. I'm ready to start worrying about sunburn. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 15 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Ukie says "if you're in the LSV and you don't live in Delta or Peach Bottom, you ain't gettin' nuttin this weekend." Euro fairly similar for end results...a bit higher near the M/D line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 12z Euro very has a solid Advisory event for the LSV Saturday am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 12z Euro very has a solid Advisory event for the LSV Saturday am. On pivotal the falling snow is gone before sunrise as well...a plus for a Sat IMO. Strange difference in your maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 It still looks like a decent consensus for an general 1 to 3 type of event, with maybe a few lucky spots getting 4. Cashtown or Mitch might win this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 15 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: It still looks like a decent consensus for an general 1 to 3 type of event, with maybe a few lucky spots getting 4. Cashtown or Mitch might win this time. Did you see the large difference in the WB hour 72hr map and the Pivotal one? The heights are similar but the precip is not at all. Pretty strange unless I am missing something (which is VERY possible). Only thing I could conclude is that Pivotal; is showing as of 12Z and WB is showing an average location of precip during that 6 hour period vs. the location at the time stamp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Did you see the large difference in the WB hour 72hr map and the Pivotal one? The heights are similar but the precip is not at all. Pretty strange unless I am missing something (which is VERY possible). I’m talking general model consensus. Not a ton of upside potential. This should be a fairly standard minor event to pad stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I’m talking general model consensus. Not a ton of upside potential. This should be a fairly standard minor event to pad stats. I more meant the location of the precip shield at 12Z not differences in snow. WB has the precip shield over central PA while Pivotal has it leaving PA at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 8 hours ago, Atomixwx said: There is an autopsy currently being conducted in the MA subforum. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk I finally got a chance to look.... quick de-escalation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: I think recently someone...maybe it was @mitchnick shared verification scores for models. I honestly don't remember the details, but what's also interesting to me is how each of us has our own personal lens on how we perceive models perform. For example, regarding the GFS...I tend to agree with you, at least somewhat. Yet, our neighbors to the south are vilifying the GFS and have crowned it the worst model out there right now. I know PSUhoffman is speaking loudly and often at just how awful the GFS is. All of this is interesting. I don’t personally think any one op model or ensemble has really stood out from the rest this winter for better or worse. They’ve all been generally to sometimes wildly inconsistent at longer leads (beyond D7). That comment might come off like well duh.. it’s beyond D7, but the focus on that time range should be more towards the large scale pattern and not individual features. And typically you can hone in on a general theme at least, but this year has been more difficult. That could be a product of the general pattern this winter, which has been blocky and has an active southern stream/split flow. Where I would direct any ire towards modeling this winter if I were to do so is the extended products… specifically the Euro weeklies. They have been too cold all winter at longer leads and they were a catalyst in the lead-up to expecting the perfect 500mb pattern (to the tune of a 1978, 2010, etc) this month and that led to sky high expectations.. and the associated disappointment when it hasn’t quite worked out that way DESPITE delivering to some degree with yesterday’s and likely Saturday’s system. Doing WeatherBell’s temp forecast contest this winter, I got burned in December leaning towards Euro weeklies with blending. Although most did because no one was expecting the kind of warm December we ended up with. You only have from the 15th to the 20th of the prior month to make these predictions and that’s it. I learned my lesson in January and placed 6/98, anticipating a warm front 10 days or so and a cold second half, with the pattern slower to transition. The cold shot in the middle of the month was so significant that the late month warm-up actually saved my forecast from being way too warm in the central part of the country. They rank the models in that too, basically they calculate the rankings based on the total temp error between the 12 stations you pick temps for. The GEFS extended and Euro Seasonal were ranked within the top 5. The Euro weeklies ranked 57th. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Certainly some weenie optimism in this take, but this is the type of set-up that could bump north in the last 24-36 hours. It would be a kick in the nuts to NVA and southern MD crew, but that’s even more reason to believe it will happen. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 26 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: I don’t personally think any one op model or ensemble has really stood out from the rest this winter for better or worse. They’ve all been generally to sometimes wildly inconsistent at longer leads (beyond D7). That comment might come off like well duh.. it’s beyond D7, but the focus on that time range should be more towards the large scale pattern and not individual features. And typically you can hone in on a general theme at least, but this year has been more difficult. That could be a product of the general pattern this winter, which has been blocky and has an active southern stream/split flow. Where I would direct any ire towards modeling this winter if I were to do so is the extended products… specifically the Euro weeklies. They have been too cold all winter at longer leads and they were a catalyst in the lead-up to expecting the perfect 500mb pattern (to the tune of a 1978, 2010, etc) this month and that led to sky high expectations.. and the associated disappointment when it hasn’t quite worked out that way DESPITE delivering to some degree with yesterday’s and likely Saturday’s system. Doing WeatherBell’s temp forecast contest this winter, I got burned in December leaning towards Euro weeklies with blending. Although most did because no one was expecting the kind of warm December we ended up with. You only have from the 15th to the 20th of the prior month to make these predictions and that’s it. I learned my lesson in January and placed 6/98, anticipating a warm front 10 days or so and a cold second half, with the pattern slower to transition. The cold shot in the middle of the month was so significant that the late month warm-up actually saved my forecast from being way too warm in the central part of the country. They rank the models in that too, basically they calculate the rankings based on the total temp error between the 12 stations you pick temps for. The GEFS extended and Euro Seasonal were ranked within the top 5. The Euro weeklies ranked 57th. Also, possibly over reliance in MJO forecasts? The one I just looked at was not suggesting Phase 8 to the level that it was before. and possibly skipping 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 50 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: Certainly some weenie optimism in this take, but this is the type of set-up that could bump north in the last 24-36 hours. It would be a kick in the nuts to NVA and southern MD crew, but that’s even more reason to believe it will happen. It could also generate a broader area of snows as well without much deviation to the low track but a bump north certainly wouldn’t hurt. Something to hone in when this gets deeper into the short range. This probably won’t have the razor thin margin like yesterday’s event. Other thing is it going to be much colder in front of this wave. 850 temps in southern PA during the event is -8 to -10ºC and 700mb temps in the low minus teens. Great column for big ratios for a change. I think I-80 and south is in play for at least 1-2”. Just a tenth or two of liquid equivalent probably makes a decent advisory event. Could be a narrow swath of borderline warning totals, but right now the prospects of that seem to favor those just south of us (perhaps northern MD). 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Wagons North on the 18Z Nam 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Wagons North on the 18Z Nam Do you have a snow map, Bubbler? TT is down for me right now, and I love a good NAM clown map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: Do you have a snow map, Bubbler? TT is down for me right now, and I love a good NAM clown map. Not as good as one would expect with all that deep, digital blue. Did 10-1 since it will be cold enough IMO. 10-1 is higher than Kuch. Both are close to the same though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Not as good as one would expect with all that deep, digital blue. Did 10-1 since it will be cold enough IMO. 10-1 is higher than Kuch. Both are close to the same though. Thanks! Looks like a fairly wide area too, so maybe some wiggle room for any shifts in track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, GrandmasterB said: Thanks! Looks like a fairly wide area too, so maybe some wiggle room for any shifts in track. It had that band of snow getting into the top 4/5 of PA before far southern PA saw any and it was indeed much more widespread than 12Z Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Here’s the 24 hr Kuchera for the NAM for specifically Saturday. It’s a little bit higher than 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 5 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Here’s the 24 hr Kuchera for the NAM for specifically Saturday. It’s a little bit higher than 10:1. I was focused on the LSV. 10-1 is higher in the LSV (on Pivotal). I see out your way Kuch is higher. 10-1 has Harrisburg at 3 and Kuch is 2.7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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