Itstrainingtime Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Windows open here tonight and shorts day tomorrow. I want more cold but going to enjoy the heat. Today was spectacular. I'm a cold guy but could get used to more of this. Trail had spring weekend type traffic on it. I'll be happy with whatever going forward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 8 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: What was your high? 63 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 10 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Today was spectacular. I'm a cold guy but could get used to more of this. Trail had spring weekend type traffic on it. I'll be happy with whatever going forward. Not to say that I don't want snow...I really do. But it doesn't define me or bring mood swings any more. I'll get excited and enjoy it if and when snow flies. I still love the thrill of anticipation leading up to a big one. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Namtastic. A unique run but LSV special. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Namtastic Indeed…. I would pay a few bucks to see 1 more panel if it existed! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Indeed…. I would pay a few bucks to see 1 more panel if it existed! Upper low still to our west at that point. Not at all buying this but temps in the 20's I would think Lsv ends up 6-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Upper low still to our west at that point. Not at all buying this but temps in the 20's I would think Lsv ends up 6-10" It definitely would. The h5 low at 84 on 0z is at least 100 miles WSW of 18z. I WISH it wasnt the nam at range sadly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Rgem with the rouzerville/marysville snow hole through 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Rgem with the rouzerville/marysville snow hole through 84. Very meh. Not sure if we would get much after 84 but it sucks for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Very meh. Not sure if we would get much after 84 but it sucks for our area it does but better than the OTS 1000 plus low of a day or so ago. I still think temps are an issue but lots of snowy solutions showing up....better north of us of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: it does but better than the OTS 1000 plus low of a day or so ago. I still think temps are an issue but lots of snowy solutions showing up....better north of us of course. It’s definitely been worse, Synoptics aren’t that far off. Better than those darn weak sheared solutions since it isn’t THAT far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 0z GFS coming in similar to 18z (and 12z). It may have shifted its 6” line like 10-20miles north in the Sus Valley from 18z, essentially back about to where it was at 12z. Focus on I-80 corridor on north for the axis of heaviest snows has been persistent with that op 0z Canadian looks nice with snow shield placement on the southern 2/3 of PA. Still on the lower side QPF wise and a bit splotchy with its output on accums but it has come a pretty long way from where it was having a very weak system. I started this post to comment on the NAM, but ended up commenting on the rest of early 0z guidance in the process. At any rate, NAM at range disclaimers aside… I have noted in the runs today that it seems to be on the colder side of guidance overall. Probably the coldest to be honest. I generally put heavier focus on the high res stuff for thermals (3k NAM, HRRR, etc) when things get in range to start using them. We start setting the boundary during Sunday, basically in the 48-60hr range at this point. So this is going to be really something to watch as we set this event up. The entire NAM column in PA is colder, but where it is especially so is up on the column at the 850 and 925mb level. 850 mb temp difference between NAM vs GFS is huge. 81 hours, where the event is pretty well underway in C-PA (GFS timing a bit faster) Now look at the 850 temps for that frame. Is the NAM onto something here? I’ll be curious to see if it holds onto anywhere near that cold of a profile as we get closer into range. Just a few degrees is going to make a big difference in this event, especially in the Sus Valley. Even a compromise of the thermal profiles between these two solutions likely get the subforum a decent event… and the GFS solution is still mostly a C-PA snow event anyways with the question mark of changeover delivering decent snows being the southern tier (turnpike corridor and south). The NAM at face value actually implies something that could be a notably >10:1 ratio event with the -8ºC 850mb isotherm deep into central/southern PA. I still feel in PA the heavy swath is a 6-10” type deal, but a NAM solution would be how double digit totals get introduced. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 27 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: 0z GFS coming in similar to 18z (and 12z). It may have shifted its 6” line like 10-20miles north in the Sus Valley from 18z, essentially back about to where it was at 12z. Focus on I-80 corridor on north for the axis of heaviest snows has been persistent with that op 0z Canadian looks nice with snow shield placement on the southern 2/3 of PA. Still on the lower side QPF wise and a bit splotchy with its output on accums but it has come a pretty long way from where it was having a very weak system. I started this post to comment on the NAM, but ended up commenting on the rest of early 0z guidance in the process. At any rate, NAM at range disclaimers aside… I have noted in the runs today that it seems to be on the colder side of guidance overall. Probably the coldest to be honest. I generally put heavier focus on the high res stuff for thermals (3k NAM, HRRR, etc) when things get in range to start using them. We start setting the boundary during Sunday, basically in the 48-60hr range at this point. So this is going to be really something to watch as we set this event up. The entire NAM column in PA is colder, but where it is especially so is up on the column at the 850 and 925mb level. 850 mb temp difference between NAM vs GFS is huge. 81 hours, where the event is pretty well underway in C-PA (GFS timing a bit faster) Now look at the 850 temps for that frame. Is the NAM onto something here? I’ll be curious to see if it holds onto anywhere near that cold of a profile as we get closer into range. Just a few degrees is going to make a big difference in this event, especially in the Sus Valley. Even a compromise of the thermal profiles between these two solutions likely get the subforum a decent event… and the GFS solution is still mostly a C-PA snow event anyways with the question mark of changeover delivering decent snows being the southern tier (turnpike corridor and south). The NAM at face value actually implies something that could be a notably >10:1 ratio event with the -8ºC 850mb isotherm deep into central/southern PA. I still feel in PA the heavy swath is a 6-10” type deal, but a NAM solution would be how double digit totals get introduced. Asking for pawatch and I lol are we too far north or could we get okay totals? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoralRed Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 17 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Asking for pawatch and I lol are we too far north or could we get okay totals? Me too! I am in Williamsport and very curious as well. Looks like we could get something worthwhile out of this. I wasn't expecting that. Earlier today wunderground had just 1.4. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 9 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Asking for pawatch and I lol are we too far north or could we get okay totals? Nah you guys are looking pretty good right now, and I don’t anticipate p-type issues up that far. All guidance/ensembles not named the ICON (furthest north outlier by far currently) has Williamsport near or within the swath of best snows. Euro and GFS ops have had IPT getting 6”+ and GFS has been putting out double digits there the last several runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 14 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Nah you guys are looking pretty good right now, and I don’t anticipate p-type issues up that far. All guidance/ensembles not named the ICON (furthest north outlier by far currently) has Williamsport near or within the swath of best snows. Euro and GFS ops have had IPT getting 6”+ and GFS has been putting out double digits there the last several runs. Thanks man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 0z Euro looks good especially for the PA turnpike on to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 6z NAM is best case scenario run for southern PA & northern MD. The Low tracks further southeast off of coast this run, but it still gets heavier rates to southern PA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 0z EPS & GEFS look very similar. The EPS is ramping up snow amounts & now gets the 5 inch line to Harrisburg & to the north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Got down to 32 overnight here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 0z EPS & GEFS look very similar. The EPS is ramping up snow amounts & now gets the 5 inch line to Harrisburg & to the north. Both ensemble means are higher than ops for me. But I haven't done well when that has happened this year. Too muiuch smoothing on the means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 6z Gfs gives me nothing. Euro and Gfs beyond next week show rain, if anything, in much of the subforum and despite supposedly great ensembles. And people wondered why I questioned that ridge extending south from the Nao block. It's not over, I know, but it's never as simple as so many in the MA thought. The ensembles just don't have the detail for the discreet issues. And when there looks to be an issue on them, or something does show up on them no matter how seemingly unimportant, assume it's a problem. Mby is supposed to be a better place for snow than my old diggs north of BWI, but it feels no different to me these past 5 winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 5 hours ago, Wmsptwx said: Asking for pawatch and I lol are we too far north or could we get okay totals? 5 hours ago, CoralRed said: Me too! I am in Williamsport and very curious as well. Looks like we could get something worthwhile out of this. I wasn't expecting that. Earlier today wunderground had just 1.4. You guys have great patience on this forum listening to all the LSV talk (including from me). Props to you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 41 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Got down to 32 overnight here. A windows wide open 49 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 14 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 6z Gfs gives me nothing. Euro and Gfs beyond next week show rain, if anything, in much of the subforum and despite supposedly great ensembles. And people wondered why I questioned that ridge extending south from the Nao block. It's not over, I know, but it's never as simple as so many in the MA thought. The ensembles just don't have the detail for the discreet issues. And when there looks to be an issue on them, or something does show up on them no matter how seemingly unimportant, assume it's a problem. Mby is supposed to be a better place for snow than my old diggs north of BWI, but it feels no different to me these past 5 winters. But Joe Bastardi! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: But Joe Bastardi! Honestly, the only thing I've read of him is what is posted on this site. But for the ensembles giving him the ammunition, he would be able to shoot his mouth off about great patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 I cannot see all the details, but Ukie is nicer than I was expecting. Also, the Roofus through 60 matches the Nam quite well with SLP position and heights out in front. Still in the game even if I think it ends up too warm. I would be happy to be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: A windows wide open 49 here. Wow big difference in temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, mahantango#1 said: Wow big difference in temps. Yea, taken down by the south westerlies again over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Honestly, the only thing I've read of him is what is posted on this site. But for the ensembles giving him the ammunition, he would be able to shoot his mouth off about great patterns. He is one of the most famous to do what you were suggesting...was being sarcastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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