anotherman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Elliott not backing down from his "no snow" this upcoming week stance: model solutions of the storm's track and intensity will continue to change, and in some cases drastically, from run-to-run. Using large-scale pattern recognition, interior New England has the best chance for accumulating snow. I'll have a full update tomorrow! Hey Elliott…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Slow bleed south of the Eps at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 26 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Elliott not backing down from his "no snow" this upcoming week stance: model solutions of the storm's track and intensity will continue to change, and in some cases drastically, from run-to-run. Using large-scale pattern recognition, interior New England has the best chance for accumulating snow. I'll have a full update tomorrow! I can’t wait for his snow map for us on Monday… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Slow bleed south of the Eps at 18z. Hopefully it’s the beginning of convergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 24 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Slow bleed south of the Eps at 18z. 18z EPS slight shift south over 12z. 18z EPS also upped snow amounts for the LSV this run. 12z top 18z bottom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 18z EPS slight shift south over 12z. 18z EPS also upped snow amounts for the LSV this run. 12z top 18z bottom I’ll be at my house in northeast Connecticut for this storm so I approve that look.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just waiting on the typical NW shift and to be speaking on a convergence 4+ days out is dangerous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, SyracuseStorm said: Just waiting on the typical NW shift and to be speaking on a convergence 4+ days out is dangerous. These models have had issues 24hrs out but ya never know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 0z Rgem slp located just north of where the Gfs had it at 18z. I think that's the closest any model has had it to the Gfs at that point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Icon still north for southern half of the State, but it was a big jump south from 18z and prior runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 waiting for the 1500 mile north west shift then heading into the lakes as a cutter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 0z GFS another big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 8 minutes ago, AccuChris said: 0z GFS another big hit Yes indeed! The Initial low dies in southern WV & then secondaries off of the DelMarVa while rapidly strengthening into the 980s. Then it exits northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 The 0z Canadian tonight also continues to adjust south. Check out the difference between 0z tonight & 0z last night. Top-0z last night with a low near Erie Bottom-0z tonight with a low in NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 0z GEFS has the mean low position a little south east of 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Ukie moved south, but weak pos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Ukie moved south, but weak pos. Good, I want the lows to Erie or Cleveland eliminated. Give me a track under us or one that has a low dying off in WV before a jump towards the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 A quick review of snowfall from 0Z shows that I get 9" in 9 hours using Kuchera. Starts around 4:00am and snows one inch per hour for 9 hours then quits around 1:00pm. I would love to be able to sit and watch 9 inches accumulate with mostly heavy rates throughout. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 If anyone wants a late night treat, the rest of the 0z GFS brings a few more snow events throughout the run. The total snow map is a thing of beauty. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Too early to judge but don’t want this turning into a sheared out mess like cmc and ukmet have…somebody should at least get to cash in on warning snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 0z Euro has continued its march to the south & now looks similar to the GFS. Convergence is underway & it puts most of CTP in a good spot. Here is the 0z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Convergence continues with the 6z GFS moving the snow line a bit north, but this still works well for most of CTP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 6z GEFS moved moved with its snow line. It actually keeps DC in the game this run. It puts the LSV in the sweet spot this run. 6z top 0z bottom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 6z GEFS individual ensemble members for early next week say that there is more of a risk of a whiff with not much of a storm instead of a miss to the north. Plenty of good snow hits for CTP on the individual members as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 10 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 6z GEFS individual ensemble members for early next week say that there is more of a risk of a whiff with not much of a storm instead of a miss to the north. Plenty of good snow hits for CTP on the individual members as well. The risk of no storm seems to be increasing with the Gem and Ukie basically saying as much and half of the Gefs members agreeing with them. That would actually be funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 The lack of cold air in place makes this whole ordeal a fail with a weak storm that does not do enough to create its own atmosphere by helping pull down cold air. That solution has been on the table from the beginning, IMO. The Canadian never goes sub-1000 until well to our east and fails to converge on one of the 2 or 3 areas of lowest pressure as it moves by to our south. Unfortunately, I think we need a Primary to get up our SW and transfer to make this one work. Give us the best of both worlds with a mechanism for cold air on the back side of a stronger low. Even then, it is rain here on the GFS. Snow for much of the LSV though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 12 minutes ago, mitchnick said: The risk of no storm seems to be increasing with the Gem and Ukie basically saying as much and half of the Gefs members agreeing with them. That would actually be funny. I’d rather have it showing the chance of a whiff instead of congrats Binghamton & Worcester like many models showed a day or 2 ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 6z Euro heights are lower at 81hrs over PA. Trend south continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 37 here this AM breaking a long below freezing streak. MDT snuck down to 33 but breaks theirs as the second longest in a year. The RRFS, RGEM and HRRR all show the high temp record tying or falling at MDT today. Nam does not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now