Bubbler86 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 22/19 here. DP up quite a bit. Pretty consistent 18-23 DP across most stations in the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 10 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: It is all relative. Rgem lost 3-5 inches for much of the LSV (from the runs at 6Z) but basically meshing with the other models now. Still looks good I think. Rgem was too high. FV3 gained 3" in some areas it was too low in. Good points, I think we are finally seeing convergence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Lots of low 20's temps throughout the LSV. A cold one. Near 20 in North Central Lanco as they prepare their defenses for the Heat Miser south wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 0z ICON improved over the 18z run for the southern tier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: 22/19 here. DP up quite a bit. Pretty consistent 18-23 DP across most stations in the LSV. 23/19 in Marysville 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 14 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: It is all relative. Rgem lost 3-5 inches for much of the LSV (from the runs at 6Z) but basically meshing with the other models now. Still looks good I think. Rgem was too high. FV3 gained 3" in some areas it was too low in. i understand we dont have a good cold air mass and 2 the moisture field is not as robust and is moving to fast. given the wind swings from last night through tonight models cut way back but then they back up . i guess good luck to every one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 thanks Years ago whenever the weather channel set up shop in Harrisburg it was guaranteed thunder snowSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 GFS focuses on the southern SLP as primary a bit earlier this run. Edit-but still changes much of the LSV over to rain or mix. I know, global on short term.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 GFS is not a good map to show. Throw it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 0z GFS looks to be in line with most models this afternoon & evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: 0z GFS looks to be in line with most models this afternoon & evening. The pivotal map is MUCH lower than this in the areas that turned to rain. Some totals are 60-70% lower. I am not going to post it because it is bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 0z GFS on Weatherbell looks very similar to 18z. Here they both are to compare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: 0z GFS on Weatherbell looks very similar to 18z. Here they both are to compare. wait they use the same model but show a different snow map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: 0z GFS on Weatherbell looks very similar to 18z. Here they both are to compare. Guessing Wb does not have a panel like this then. I cannot say who is right as to the precip algorithms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Who knows which service is better or more accurate? I pay my 27.99 per month to Weatherbell. They have a lot a commercial clients & 2 seasoned pro Mets that run the website. I don’t think they would be in business with bad maps… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Who knows which service is better or more accurate? I pay my 27.99 per month to Weatherbell. They have a lot a commercial clients & 2 seasoned pro Mets that run the website. I don’t think they would be in business with bad maps… I actually do not have any numbers other than intuition that WB maps are inflated a bit with snow but that is not the issue here, the GFS is a rainstorm for a good bit of the southern LSV on Pivotal so it is not accums vs. fairly large difference in ground truth. I guess it goes to show the tenuous day ahead for tracking tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 The 0z Canadian improved over its 12z run for Lancaster & still looks good for most of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Here is the Skew-T for the rain period I showed...and it is rain because of a decent area of the column including the 850's failing. Case can be made it is too close to make that call and intensity could overcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 The rising dewpoints tonight are incredibly depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I actually do not have any numbers other than intuition that WB maps are inflated a bit with snow but that is not the issue here, the GFS is a rainstorm for a good bit of the LSV so it is not accums it is fairly large differences in ground truth. I guess it goes to show the tenuous day ahead for tracking tomorrow. Here is the height of the storm on the GFS. It shows mixing in the LSV, but no plain rain in PA. The WB maps do split out Sleet & Freezing Rain separately, so they are Not lumped in with snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 and now its going to be a mix ice storm lol im just about done 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 minutes ago, canderson said: The rising dewpoints tonight are incredibly depressing. What’s your dew point now? I am at 19 & MDT is at 20 as of 11 pm I have been hovering near 20 most of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 11 pm Obs & the whole state has dew points in the teens to near 20… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 18 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: What’s your dew point now? I am at 19 & MDT is at 20 as of 11 pm I have been hovering near 20 most of the day. Yea, pretty low DP's right now. Mine rose 2-3 degrees but was pretty low to start. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: What’s your dew point now? I am at 19 & MDT is at 20 as of 11 pm I have been hovering near 20 most of the day. 22. Was 18 3 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 7 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: What’s your dew point now? I am at 19 & MDT is at 20 as of 11 pm I have been hovering near 20 most of the day. yeah it went down a point or 2 over the last few hours dp and temp last i looked was 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 At midnight with still totally clear skies and calm winds I'm at my low of the day at 20 with a dew point of 18. I honestly did not expect temps to drop this low before clouds coming in. The 20 degrees was the new low for the day as my overnight low was 21.6. Now I get to have two days in a row with a low of at least 20, which is only around 2 degrees below normal for me. The clouds will stop the drop in temps, but that doesn't matter because they've dropped to within 2 degrees of the dew point, so near saturation. Because it will be overcast by sunrise, we don't have to worry about the sun. See you all in the morning. I'll be reporting in with my hourly obs throughout the day. Good night. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Tuesday looking like windy and a flood threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Canadian loves next weekend. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2024010600&fh=174&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Gentlemen, with a couple toddlers this is as late as Ive been up in ages and yeah maybe Ive had a little whiskey, but I gotta tell ya, Ive got no damn clue which way this is gonna break down here. Just gonna enjoy whatever thump we receive and be happy for snow. Again, only guarantee is Lancaster is the tightest gradient haha. See ya’ll in the mornin! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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