December 2023 temperature forecast contest and annual winter snowfall contest

[Roger Smith]

Last month of the 2023 contest year, but even so, a good month to enter for first time because (a) you will be fully participating in winter portion of contest Dec Jan Feb, and also (b) because you can enter the annual snowfall contest. 

For temperatures, predict anomalies relative to 1991-2020 averages for these nine locations: 

__ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ____ DEN _PHX _SEA

and for snowfall, we substitute DTW, BUF and BTV for ATL _IAH _ PHX so the order of forecasts for snow is 

__ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _DTW _BUF ____ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

(precise snowfall order does not matter so long as it's clear which locations are to be associated wit your numbers).

The temperature contest has a deadline for on-time penalty free entries, 06z Friday Dec 1st. For the snowfall contest, I would appreciate having your entries soon but no exact deadline, let's say 10th of Dec will be when I might contact any stragglers. (predict total seasonal snowfall including any already fallen, into spring of 2024)

By the way, a long-running "northeast US snowfall contest" blog site has gone dormant this fall and there is no call for forecasts, anyone know what's up? Some Am-Wx members participate in it, but I don't believe the organizer "TQ" is a member of Am-Wx. I hope all is well. I may see if I can collect some seasonal forecasts if the site does not come to life soon, and also, I may try to run some storm forecast contests similar to what normally occurs on that site, but here at American Weather. That will be announced separately if necessary (I hope it is not necessary). 

 

Over and out ... Nov scoring estimates are posted including annual updates. DonS has a pretty substantial lead over wxallannj and hudsonvalley21, the two closest and those three are our only forecasters ahead of Consensus at present time. Rjay is fourth and wxdude64 has overtaken RodneyS as of current scoring. 

 

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ____ DEN _PHX _SEA

  1.3     1.1        0.8          0.9      1.6     1.1             0.0     -0.3    -0.5

 DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _DTW _BUF ____ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

16"      21"     33"        43"   31"     103"          41"     5"       86"

[Tom]

DCA: +0.8

NYC: +0.9

BOS: +0.9

ORD: +1.0

ATL: +0.7

IAH: +0.4

DEN: +0.2

PHX: +0.3

SEA: -0.2

 

DCA: 18.7"

NYC: 32.6"

BOS: 44.7"

ORD: 37.2"

DTW: 34.6"

BUF: 97.8"

DEN: 51.6"

SEA: 4.1"

BTV: 73.2"

[wxallannj]

DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ____ DEN _PHX _SEA

  2.5     2.2      2.0         3.2      2.4      1.6             2.4    2.0       0.2 

 DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _DTW _BUF ____ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

19"     27"     30"        38"     35"   97"          41"     9"      75"

[donsutherland1]

DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ____ DEN _PHX _SEA

1.0       0.3      0.0         2.0      1.0      1.4            3.0      2.3      3.3

DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _DTW _BUF ____ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

11.5    15.0    27.5     27.0    38.5   85.0        56.5    1.2      70.0

[stadiumwave]

JMA new December Forecast

 

Most of big cold in Europe & Asia, but that's certainly not a blowtorch CONUS.

JMA old DEC forecast

 

Also is a reminder not to put much stock in Seasonal model updates coming up for JAN/FEB.

[RodneyS]

DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ____ DEN _PHX _SEA

1.0        1.2       1.3         2.7      0.8     1.8             1.7       0.1       0.0

DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _DTW _BUF ____ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

6.7    12.9    24.3      30.0  34.5   79.9        65.4     3.9   64.3

[wxdude64]

DCA:  -1.4

NYC:  -0.9

BOS:  -0.9

ORD:  +0.2

ATL:  +0.4

IAH:  +0.6

DEN:  +1.1

PHX:  +0.3

SEA:  -0.3

SNOWFALL

DCA:  22.9

NYC:  30.2

BOS:  44.6

ORD:  22.2

DTW:  31.5

BUF:  88.3

DEN:  54.3

SEA:  7.8

BTV: 71.4

 

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ____ DEN _PHX _SEA

1.4        0.1       0.4          1.7       1.3       1.1            2.3      1.2     2.7

DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _DTW _BUF ____ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

12.0    31.0    30.5     33.5   32.5   68.5       59.5     5.5     77.0

[Roger Smith]

-0.4 _ -0.6 _ -0.3 _ +0.4 _ -1.0 _ -1.0 __ +2.5 _ +3.5 _ +1.5

18.5 _ 33.8 _ 54.1 __ 40.3 _ 48.4 (DTW) _ 89.2 (BUF) __ 45.0 _ 79.3 (BTV) _ 3.0 (SEA)

 

[so_whats_happening]

DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ____ DEN _PHX _SEA

+1.6      +1       +.3       +2.1     +1.4    +1.2         +2.2     +1.8    +.5

 

DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _DTW _BUF ____ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

18       26      41         28      35      84           36       7       87

Edit: Want to change Den --> 40" and Buf --> 78" Hope that is ok on 12/9 ~18z

[Rjay]

DCA: +1.5

NYC: +1.5

BOS: +1.5

ORD: +2.5

ATL: +1.5

IAH: +1.5

DEN: +1.5

PHX: +1.0

SEA: 0.0

 

DCA: 22"

NYC:  30"

BOS: 44"

ORD: 20"

DTW: 25"

BUF: 99"

DEN: 61"

SEA: 4.0"

BTV: 80"

[bkviking]

DCA:  +0.8

NYC:  +0.9

BOS:  +0.6

ORD:  +1.1

ATL:  +0.2

IAH:  +0.2

DEN:  +0.5

PHX:  +0.7

SEA:  +1.6

SNOWFALL

DCA:  19

NYC:  28

BOS:  37

ORD: 20

DTW: 17

BUF: 95

DEN: 59

SEA: 4.1

BTV: 86

[so_whats_happening]

Oh boy a lot of big Denver snow forecasts. Would think this would be further south into NM region with the STJ increase.

[Roger Smith]

8 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Oh boy a lot of big Denver snow forecasts. Would think this would be further south into NM region with the STJ increase.

Just a reminder to you and all entrants, our snowfall contest runs Sep to June and DEN is already at 10.4" -- does it alter your assessment at all? All snowfall forecasts can be edited to Dec 10, forecast table date. Except for 10.4" already measured, I am equal to your forecast at 45" if you were basing it on now to end.

ORD (2.7), DTW (2.4"), BUF (2.3") and BTV (5.0") already saw a bit of snow too. Those count towards contest values.

Note also, a forecast contest is available (for 25th annual) at TQ's "northeast US snowfall contest" site; his contest period is Dec 1 to march 31, and because of late startup the deadline is Dec 10. There will also be storm forecast contests. DonS and I are regular participants, and I think some others from Am Wx are participants too, under different usernames. Give it a look, it's a blast (to see Don beating everyone). I did well in 2010 (or was it 1870?). 

Link to it here: 

http://www.newx-forecasts.com/#RULES

[Roger Smith]

 

Table of forecasts for December 2023

 

FORECASTER ___________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ____ DEN _PHX _SEA

wxallannj ________________________ +2.5 _ +2.2 _+2.0 __+3.2 _+2.4 _+1.6 ___+2.4 _+2.0 _+0.2

so_whats_happening ____________ +1.6 _ +1.0 _ +0.3 __ +2.1 _+1.4 _+1.2 ___+2.2 _+1.8 _+0.5

RJay _____________________________ +1.5 _ +1.5 _+1.5 __ +2.5 _+1.5 _+1.5 ___ +1.5 _+1.0 __ 0.0 

hudsonvalley21 __________________ +1.4 _ +0.1 _ +0.4 __ +1.7 _+1.3 _+1.1 ___ +2.3 _+1.2 _+2.7

Scotty Lightning _________________ +1.3 _ +1.1 _ +0.8 __+0.9 _+1.6 _+1.1 ____ 0.0 _ -0.3 _ -0.5

RodneyS _________________________ +1.0 _ +1.2 _ +1.3 __ +2.7 _+0.8 _+1.8 ___+1.7 _ +0.1 __0.0

 

___ Consensus ____________________+1.0 _ +0.9 _+0.6 __+1.7 _+1.0 _+1.1 ___ +1.7 _ +1.0 _ +0.2

 

DonSutherland 1 _________________ +1.0 _ +0.3 __0.0 __ +2.0 _+1.0 _+1.4 ___+3.0 _+2.3 _+3.3

Tom ______________________________ +0.8 _+0.9 _+0.9 __+1.0 _+0.7 _+0.4 ___+0.2 _+0.3 _-0.2

BKViking _________________________ +0.8 _+0.9 _+0.6 __+1.1 _+0.2 _+0.2 ___+0.5 _+0.7 _+1.6

___ Normal ________________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____0.0 _ 0.0 _ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

Roger Smith ______________________-0.4 _ -0.6 _ -0.3 __ +0.4 _-1.0 _-1.0 ___ +2.5 _+3.5 _+1.5

wxdude64 _______________________ -1.4 _ -0.9 _ -0.9 __ +0.2 _+0.4 _+0.6 ___+1.1 _ +0.3 _-0.3 

=====================

Persistence (Nov 2023) _______________ -0.3 _ -1.3 _ -1.7 ____+1.6 _+1.8 _-0.7 ___ +3.8 _+4.3 _ -1.7

warmest and coldest forecasts are color coded; Normal is coldest for ORD and tied coldest DEN.

 

Snowfall contest entries will be tabulated around Dec 10th

[Roger Smith]

 

*** __ 2023-2024 Winter Snowfall Contest __ ***

 

Forecaster ___________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ____ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

 

wxdude64 ____________________________22.9 _ 30.2 _ 44.6 __ 22.2 _ 31.5 _ 88.3 ___ 54.3 __ 7.8 __ 71.4

 

RJay _________________________________ 22.0 _ 30.0 _ 44.0 __ 20.0 _ 25.0 _ 99.0 ___ 61.0 __ 4.0 __ 80.0

BKViking _____________________________ 19.0 _ 28.0 _ 37.0 __ 20.0 _ 17.0 __ 95.0 ___ 59.0 __ 4.1 __ 86.0

wxallannj _____________________________ 19.0 _ 27.0 _ 30.0 __ 38.0 _ 35.0 _ 97.0 ___ 41.0 __ 9.0 __ 75.0

Tom ___________________________________18.7 _ 32.6 _ 44.7 __ 37.2 _ 34.6 _ 97.8 ___ 51.6 __ 4.1 __ 73.2

Roger Smith __________________________ 18.5 _ 33.8 _ 54.1 __ 40.3 _ 48.4 _ 89.2 ___ 45.0 __ 3.0 __79.3

___ Consensus ____ (median) __________18.5 _ 27.0 _ 37.0 __ 30.0 _ 34.5 _ 89.2 ___ 54.3 __ 4.1 __ 77.0

so_whats_happening __________________18.0 _ 26.0 _ 41.0 __ 28.0 _ 35.0 _ 78.0 ___ 40.0 __ 7.0 __ 87.0

Scotty Lightning ______________________ 16.0 _ 21.0 _ 33.0 __ 43.0 _ 31.0 _103.0 ___ 41.0 __ 5.0 __ 86.0

hudsonvalley21 _______________________ 12.0 _ 31.0 _ 30.5 __ 33.5 _ 32.5 _ 68.5 ___ 59.5 __ 5.5 __ 77.0

DonSutherland1 _______________________ 11.5 _ 15.0 _ 27.5 ___27.0 _ 38.5 _ 85.0 ___ 56.5 __ 1.2 ___70.0

RodneyS _______________________________ 6.7 _ 12.9 _ 24.3 __ 30.0 _ 34.5 _ 79.9 ___ 65.4 __ 3.9 __ 64.3

======================================

Will add snowfall to date around end of Dec -- good luck !

 

 

 

[Roger Smith]

Anomalies and projections ...

 

_______________________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

(17) _________ (anom 16d) ____________ +1.8 _ +4.2 _ +3.3*__ +6.8 _ +3.8 _ +2.3 __ +5.1 _ +4.3 _ +2.7

____________ (p anom 31d) ____________+2.0 _ +3.0 _ +3.0 __ +4.0 _ +3.0 _ +2.0 __ +4.0 _ +3.5 _ +2.0

 

(23) _________ (anom 22d) ____________+1.9 _ +4.0 _ +3.7 __ +6.7 _ +1.7 _ +2.6 __ +7.8 _ +5.9 _ +2.6

____________ (p anom 31d) ____________+2.0 _ +3.0 _ +3.0 __ +5.0 _ +3.0 _ +2.5 __ +4.0 _ +3.5 _ +2.0

As speculated, some anomalies did get up pretty far, here is the end result ...

____________ (anom 31d) ______________+3.8 _ +5.5 _ +5.1 __ +8.6 _ +2.6 _ +1.9 __ +6.2 _ +4.7 _ +3.5

 

* BOS est as Dec 16 not incl (+11 blend w 2.9 1-15)

(17) _ Based projections on a continuation of trends, possibly not quite as anomalously warm as first part of Dec, but no big changes indicated. 

Current projections would score only 80 _ 58 _ 54 __ 54 _ 60 _ 82 ___ 54 _ 50 _ 64 ___ 556 

___ Consensus ________________+1.0 _+0.9 _+0.4 __+1.7 _+1.0 _+1.1 ___ +1.7 _+1.0 _+0.2

(warmer forecasts would score over 700). 

wxallannj could close in on leader DonS, but I don't believe scoring potential is sufficient to overcome deficit; may be a close finish. 

(23) _ Projections adjusted, preliminary scoring to be posted soon. ORD and IAH were bumped up and rest were as before, looks like a gradual shift to below normal temps near end of Dec, not very far below average anywhere as source regions have little snow cover. 

(31-Jan 1) _ Scoring is being adjusted to final anomalies. (now final) 

[rainsucks]

With all due respect, there's virtually zero chance ORD finishes the month with only a +4 departure. +8 or +9 seems much more likely at this point

[Roger Smith]

On 12/19/2023 at 11:57 PM, rainsucks said:

With all due respect, there's virtually zero chance ORD finishes the month with only a +4 departure. +8 or +9 seems much more likely at this point

I adjusted ORD and IAH today, you could be correct in saying eventual 8-9 but scoring will revert to max 60 above 5.2 anyway, and will look like it does for +5.

(It was in fact +8.6 at ORD) ...

Also, max 60 was required to score NYC, BOS, ORD, and DEN.

 

 

__ Final scoring for December 2023 __

 

FORECASTER __________________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL

wxallannj ________________________ 74 _60^_ 60^__194 __ 60^_ 96 _94 __ 250 __444 __ 52^_ 46 _ 34 __ 132 ____ 576

DonSutherland 1 _________________44 _ 18^_ 14^__ 076 __ 40^_ 68 _ 90 __ 198 __ 274 __ 60^_ 52 _ 96 __208 ____ 482

RJay _____________________________ 54 _ 54^_ 54^__ 162 __ 50^_ 78 _ 92 __ 220 __ 382 __ 26^_ 26 _ 30 __ 082 ____ 464

so_whats_happening ____________ 56 _ 42^_ 20^__ 118 __ 42^_ 76 _ 86 ___ 204 __ 322 __ 40^_ 42 _ 40 __ 122 ____ 444

hudsonvalley21 __________________ 52 _ 12^_ 26^__ 090 __ 34^_ 74 _ 84 ___ 192 __ 282 __ 46^_ 30 _ 84 __ 160 ____ 442

RodneyS _________________________ 44 _ 48^_ 50^__ 142 __ 54^_ 64 _ 98 __ 216 __ 358 __ 30^_ 08 _ 30 __ 068 ____ 426

 

___ Consensus ____________________44 _ 30^_ 30^__ 104 __ 34^_ 68 _ 84 __ 186 __ 290 __ 30^_ 26 _ 34 __ 090 ____ 380

 

BKViking _________________________ 40 _ 30^_ 30^__ 100 __ 24^_ 52 _ 66 __ 142 __ 242 __ 12^_ 20 _ 62 __ 094 ____ 336

Scotty Lightning _________________ 50 _ 46^_ 40^__ 136 __ 12^ _ 76 _ 84 ___172 __ 308 __ 00 _ 00 _ 20 __ 020 ____ 328

Tom ______________________________ 40 _ 30^_ 42^__ 112 __ 22^ _ 62 _ 70 __ 154 __ 266 __ 06^_ 12 _ 26 __ 044 ____ 310

Roger Smith ______________________ 16 _ 06^_ 06^__ 028 __ 06^_ 28 _ 42 __ 076 __ 104 __ 54^_ 76 _ 60 __ 190 ____ 294

wxdude64 ________________________00 _ 00 _ 00 __ 000 __ 02 _ 56 _ 74 __ 132 ___ 140 __ 18^_ 32 _ 24 __ 074 ____ 206 

___ Normal ________________________24 _ 10^_ 12^__ 046 __ 00 _ 48 _ 62 __ 110 ___ 156 __ 00 _ 06 _ 30 __ 036 ____ 192

=====================

Persistence (Nov 2023) _______________ 18 _ 00 _ 00 __ 018 __ 32^_ 84 _ 48 ___164 __ 182 __ 64 _ 92 _ 00 __ 156 ____ 338

________________________________________

 

EXTREmE FORECAST REPORT

 

DCA, NYC, BOS, ORD, ATL ... all are wins for wxallannj with high forecasts.

IAH ... a win for RodneyS with high forecast.

DEN, SEA ... wins for Don Sutherland1 with high forecasts. 

PHX ... win for Roger Smith with high forecast.

_____________________________

Best wishes for holidays and new year 2024. 

[Roger Smith]

 

 

=== === <<<< ---- ANNUAL SCORING for JANUARY - DECEMBER 2023 ---- >>>> === ===

 

Best scores for the nine locations are shown with red highlight, best totals for regions in bold. 

 

FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent ___ c/e___ DEN_ PHX_ SEA __ west __ TOTALS

 

1 DonSutherland1 __________ 810 _728 _ 790 __2328 __900 _910 _820 __2628__4956 __849 _732 _872 __2453 ____7399

2 wxallannj _________________ 795 _760 _ 795__ 2350 __905 _934 _718__ 2557 __4907 __793 _740 _730 __ 2263 ____7170

3 hudsonvalley21 ___________783 _696 _ 781 __2260 __890 _839 _757 __ 2486 __4746 __684 _602 _ 909 __ 2195 ____6941

 

___ Consensus _____________ 763 _708 _ 771 __ 2242__ 875 _806 _767 __2448 __4690 __ 687 _647 _ 856 __2190 ____6880

 

4 RJay ______________________728 _698 _ 696 __2122 __ 835 _810 _818__ 2463 __4585 __ 659 _ 721 _ 857 __ 2237 ____ 6822

5 RodneyS __________________756 _716 _ 766 __2238 __ 731 _685 _806 __2222 __4460 __ 749 _ 564 _ 856 __ 2169 ____6629

6 wxdude64 ________________714 _729 _ 672 __2115 __ 623 _834 _708 __ 2165 __4280 __ 747 _ 658 _ 818 __ 2223 ____6503

7 Scotty Lightning __________ 695 _686 _720 __2101 __ 753 _765 _718 __ 2236 __4337 __ 558 _ 474 _ 696 __ 1728 ____6065

... pro-rated scores are added in brackets for most below this point in the table ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... scores _ pro-rated to 12

8 Tom (11/12) ________________707 _642 _681 __2030 __638 _680 _702 __2020 __4050 __644 _502 _735 __1881 _____5931 (6472)

9 Roger Smith _______________658 _562 _566 __1786 __617 _591 _750 __ 1958 __ 3744__ 599 _662 _876 __2137 ____ 5881

10 BKViking (11/12) __________682 _614 _687 __ 1983 __753 _660 _701 __2114 __ 4097 __515 _546 _712 __1773 ____ 5870 (6404)

___ Normal __________________ 630 _612 _578 __1820 __ 642 _684 _592 __1918 __ 3738 __578 _412 _736 __1726 ____ 5464

so_whats_happening (8/12)_ 493 _437 _468 __ 1398 __540 _500 _497 __1537 __ 2935 __ 415 _448 _567 __1430 ____4365 (6546) 

Rhino16 (7/12) _______________490 _510 _502 __ 1502 __546 _526 _292 __1364 __ 2866 __ 395 _302 _504 __1201 ____ 4067 (6972) 

Stormchaser Chuck (4/12)__ 251 _272 _268 ___791 __ 341 _ 174 _ 224 __ 739 __ 1530 __284 _300 _334 ___918 ____ 2448 (7344) 

 

... ... ... Tom's unimproved score is still (just) ahead of Roger Smith and 180 points below Scotty L ...

... ... ... Tom's pro-rated score is between 6th and 7th place above in the scoring table (just below wxdude64). 

... ... ... BKViking's pro-rated score is just below Tom's and gross score just below Roger Smith. 

... ... ... Stormchaser Chuck's pro-rated score is between 1st and 2nd, below only contest leader Don Sutherland1 and a little above 2nd place wxallannj. 

... ... ... so_whats_happening has a pro-rated score between 5th and 6th a little higher than pro-rated scores for Tom and BKViking.

... ... ... rhino16 has a pro-rated score between 2nd and 3rd just in front of hudsonvalley21 ..................................... ......

Terpeast (1/12) _____________ 62 _ 44 _ 34 ____ 140 ___84 _ 86 _ 26 ____ 196 ___ 336 __ 10 __ 76 __ 60 ___ 146 ____ 482 (5784)

rainsucks (1/12) ____________ 42 __32 _ 36 ____ 110 ___ 00 _ 66 _ 48 ____ 114 ___ 224 __ 50 __ 98 __ 84 ___ 232 ____ 456 (5472)

 

- - - - -

___ Persistence ____________567 _450 _512 __1529 __720 _773 _690 __2183 ___3712 __ 484 _685 _612 __1781 ____5493  

_______________________________________________________

Persistence virtually tied Normal, and scores were below all forecasters (pro-rated).

 

Best Forecasts

 

* shared with one other forecaster for one month (does not apply to Consensus or Normal, if they qualify, so does the high forecaster score whether tied or not)

^ shared with two other forecasters for one month (if applied to Normal, tied two forecast contest entrants)

 

 

FORECASTER ____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA__west __ Months

 

DonSutherland1 ___________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ____3*___ 1* ___ 0____4 ___ 1 ___ 4*___ 4^___3*___ 2 ____3 _ Jan,Mar,Aug

wxallannj __________________ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2 ___ 2 ____4***__3*____1 ___ 2 ___ 3*___ 1 ___ 2*___ 0 ___ 2*___4* _ May(t),July, Nov,Dec

hudsonvalley21 ____________2*____ 2*____ 1 ___ 1*____ 0^____1 ____1* ___0 ___ 0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____1* _ May(t)

___ Consensus ____________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ May

RJay ______________________ 1 ____ 3 ____ 1 ____2 ____ 1*___3**___4 ___ 2 ___ 2*___ 0___ 4**^__ 1___ 1*____0 

wxdude64 _________________1^____ 2 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1*____ 1 ____1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 _ Apr

RodneyS __________________2*____ 1 ____ 2*___ 2 ____ 2*____ 1 ____1 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___3*___2 ___ 2* ___3 ___ 2 _ Jun,Sep

Scotty Lightning ___________1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ____1 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1* ___1 ___ 0 ____ 0

Tom (10/11) ________________3*^___0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____2*___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0

Roger Smith _______________ 0 ____ 2*___ 2* ___ 2*____2**___ 1 ____1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2*___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 1 _ Oct 

BKViking (10/11) ___________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1*____ 0 ____0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2*^___2 ___1 ____ 0

___ Normal _________________1^ ____ 3 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0

Rhino16 (7/11) _____________2^____ 0 ____ 1*___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 2 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ Nov

so_whats_happening (7/11) _0 ____ 0____ 2*___ 0 ____ 0 ____0____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0^ (Oct)

Stormchaser Chuck (4/11)__2 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1* ____1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 _ Feb

Terpeast (1/11) ____________ 1*____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ____0

rainsucks (1/11) ___________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ____0

 

(hudsonvalley21 has a tied top score for ORD (Mar) before 1 pt reduced by penalty). Shown as 0^

(so_whats_happening has a top score for October, before 1% penalty transferred it to Roger Smith. Shown as 0^

-----------------------------------------

 

EXTREME FORECAST SUMMARY _ FINAL REPORT 2023

 

86 of 108 forecasts qualify, 53 of them for warmest, and 33 for coldest

... Jan 6-2, Feb 5-3, Mar 6-3, Apr 5-3, May 3-2, June 1-8, July 4-2, Aug 4-3, Sep 1-3, Oct 5-1, Nov 4-3, Dec 9-0 ...

19 of 77 involve a loss where a second ranked forecast has high score. Two of those are a shared loss. 

 

FORECASTER _______ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _Apr _May _ Jun _Jul _Aug _Sep _Oct _Nov _Dec ___ TOTALS _ (adjusted for ties)

RJay _________________ 5-0 _ 2-1 _ 2-0 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 1-0 _4-0 _2*-0 _1-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 ___ 18-1 ______16.0 - 1.0

DonSutherland ______ 2-0 _ 1-0 _ 3*-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _1-0 _2-0 _2-0___ 13-1 ______12.5 - 1.0

wxallannj ____________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-1* 0-1* _ 2*-0_1-0 _ 0-1 _ 0-0 _ 2-0_ 1*-0_5-0 __12-3 _____10.5 - 2.0

RodneyS _____________1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 __ 1-0 _ 4*-1 _0-1 _ 1*-1 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _ 1-0___ 11-3 ______10.0 - 2

Roger Smith _________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _ 1-1*_ 0-0 _1*-0 _2*-0_0-0 _2**0_2-0_1-0 ___11-1 ______ 8.5 - 0.5

StormchaserChuck __ -- --_ 5-1 _ -- --_ 2-2 _ 2-0 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 0-1 _ --- __--- _ ---- ___9-4 ______ 8.5 - 4.0

Rhino16 _____________ -- --_-- --_-- --_ -- -- _-- - _ ---- _ --- _ 2*^-0_3-0 _ ---_2*-0 _--- ___7-0 _____ 5.33 - 0

wxdude64 ___________1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-1 _2^-1 _0-2 _ 0-0 _ 1-1 _ 0-0___5-5 _____ 3.83 - 5.0

hudsonvalley21 ______ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _1-0 _ 1*-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _2*-0_0-0 _0-0___5-0 ______3.5 - 0.0

___ Normal ___________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 3-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-1* _0-1 _0-0 _0-0 __ 5-3 _____ 4.5 - 2.5

Scotty Lightning _____ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 3-1 _ 0-1* _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 ___ 4-2 _____ 4.0 - 1.5

Tom __________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 1*-0_  0-0 _ 0-0 _1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 ___ 3-0 _____ 1.83 - 0

BKViking _____________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _--- _ 0-0 _0-0 ___ 2-0 _____ 1.5 - 0

rainsucks _____________ -- --_-- --_-- --_1*-0 _ -- - _ ---- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ ---- _---- _---- __ 1-0 ______0.5 - 0

Terpeast _____________ -- --_-- --_-- --_ -- --_ -- - _ 1*-0 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---- _ ---- _ ----__ 1-0 ______ 0.5 - 0

so_whats_happening _0-0 _0-1 _ -- --_-- -- _ -- - _ 0-0 __ --- _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-1 ______ 0.5 - 1

===========================================

 

[Roger Smith]

So, I do need to check one or two details, for instance IAH is not confirmed yet, and DCA is an estimate despite a final CF6 report with 31st shown as missing data (but a daily climate report suggests a higher eventual anomaly than 3.8 as shown in CF6. It won't affect scoring to any great extent and I believe we can safely say congrats to Don Sutherland for another winning effort in 2023, and also good work wxallannj who did everything possible to overtake at the end ... also well done to hudsonvalley21 who got in ahead of consensus, and RJay for a solid year and a win in the extreme forecast section. 

I will post a bit more in a day or two and those minor scoring issues will be resolved in a later edit of what you see now. 

I will also update the contest historical report now in the Sep thread, and eventually bring it over to here. 

(update _ Jan 1st 21z _ IAH now updated, DCA still includes one missing day, not sure why as 31st climate data appears complete. But scores would all go up or down by same amount for any eventual DCA scoring)

[Roger Smith]

The history of the contest (with personal best scores)

Before 2013, the contest was managed by a number of people including but not limited to Chicago Storm, mallow and Ellinwood. In 2013 I began to score the contest, although there was no max-60 rule and just six stations until 2014. In 2014 the three western locations were offered as "optional" and the scores were not combined. Contest scoring reports were separated into two groups (original six and western three), but by 2017 the scores were combined so total scoring was out of 900 each month.

 

In 2013, RodneyS was the annual contest winner and DonSutherland1 was third. We used to have a considerably larger contest field of 30-40 lasting to about 2017, and some who have departed are long-time members still active, others have left Am-Wx or at least are now operating under a different username). I have added results from 2013, bearing in mind, totals are out of 600, not 900 (no western stations yet) ...

 

month _______ winning score (/600) _____ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active

JAN ___________ 452 _Mallow, 448 midlo snow maker __ 436 RodneyS

FEB ___________ 512 __ Ineedsnow ______ Don Sutherland1 __ 492

MAR _____________ 457 __ wxdude64

APR ___________ 466 __Sacrus  __________ RodneyS _ 462 _____ no snowfall contest winter 2012-13

MAY _____________ 534 __ Isotherm _520 Ellinwood __ 506 BKViking (tied OhLeary) __ severe storm bonus contest, subjective post-mortem*

___ ___ ____ ____ _____ ______ _______ ________ __________ __________ *pottercounty, Ellinwood, MNT, ChIcago Storm were mentioned as best

JUN ___________ 556 __ Roger Smith _ 550 Mallow _ 546 Midlo Snow Maker 

JUL ___________ 460 __ Mallow, 438 Sacrus __ 424 wxdude64

AUG ___________530 __ UncleW __ 524 Chicago Storm __ 522 Roger Smith

SEP ___________ 538 __ MN_Transplant __ four others, then 472 _ SD (Scotty L nowadays) 

OCT __________ 544 __ forkyfork ________522 _BKViking tied 4th __ Midlo Snow Maker won seasonal max contest for 6 locs (RodneyS t2nd w UncleW)

NOV __________ 470 __ RodneyS ___ four seasons contest did not begin until 2014-15 year

DEC ___________448 __ MetallicWx366 ___ DonSutherland1 _ 392 

__ Winner of 2013 contest (combined score) was RodneyS (5215) with Midlo Snow Maker second at 4967, DonS 3rd at 4851. No extreme forecast tracking yet.

 

In 2014, although scores were not combined, I have added them and found these monthly wins ( was going to place numbers in brackets to represent scoring if a max-60 rule was in effect but could find few cases of revisable scores, a few such low scoring months exist but those with increased scores did not come very close to winning any month): ___ note your personal best score is also tracked even if you didn't win that month.

month _______ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active

JAN ___________ 700 __ Roger Smith

FEB ___________ 558 __ midlo snow maker ___ Don Sutherland1 __ 532

MAR _____________ 677 __ Don Sutherland1

APR ___________ 802 __Don Sutherland1 ___ ( Mallow 798 ) ___ midlo snow maker won snowfall contest (Tom t4 best of current forecasters)

MAY _____________ 736 __ Don Sutherland1 ___ ( Isotherm 728 )

JUN ___________ 810 __ Mallow ___________ Roger S _ 808 ... hudsonvalley21 _ 794

JUL ___________ 592 __ Roger Smith (also Cpick79 (N of Pike) tied 592)

AUG __________ 608 __ Don Sutherland1

SEP ___________ 742 __ Midlo Snow Maker ___ Don Sutherland1 and BKViking _ 716

OCT __________ 584 __ wxallannj (600) ___ Damage in Tolland won seasonal max contest (RodneyS 2nd)

NOV __________ 609 __ Roger Smith (627) ___ four seasons contest did not begin until 2014-15 year

DEC __________ 592 __ Midlo Snow Maker ___ wxallannj _ 462 

__ Winner of 2014 contest (combined score) was Roger Smith (7195 would be 7213 now) while DonS totalled 7186. This close finish was not recorded at the time and Don was close to top of western scoring. Roger Smith also won the extreme forecast award (14-2). 

 

2015 _ scores now combined making this project a lot simpler to navigate ...

 

month _______ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active

 

JAN __________ 656 __ Isotherm __________ Tom _ 542

FEB ________ about 500* __ DonS ... ______ __ __ BKViking won snowfall contest for winter on a different scoring system

MAR __________ 507 __ Absolute humidity ____ DonS _ 503

APR _________796 __ Midlo Snow Maker __ wxallannj _ 756

MAY ________ 535 __ Stebo _______________ RodneyS _ 495

JUN ________ 596 __ wxdude64 

JUL ________ 765 __ DonSutherland1

AUG _______ 696 __ SD (Scotty L) __ (later realized SD was Scotty Lightning, not sure when changed)

SEP ________ 619 __ RJay ____________ __ __ SD (Scotty L) won seasonal max contest, Tom was 2nd. 

OCT _______ 714 __ Damage in Tolland ____ DonS 644

NOV _______ 774 __ ksammut _Ohwx 752 __DonS 726 ___ first four seasons contest winner Isotherm, DonS 4th (Mallow 2nd, msm 3rd)

DEC _______ 487 __ snoski14 _______________Roger Smith 454 (very mild Dec 2015, scoring quite low for most)

The highest combined score for 2015 was  6944 (Isotherm) and DonS was third at 6499. (D in T was 2nd).

Damage in Tolland also won extreme forecast award (11-0), RJay and RodneyS (5-2) were best of currently active forecasters. 

 

* Feb 2015 was a very cold month, low scoring ... I proposed a max 60 rule in play but it was left out for 2015 ... if it were used, DonS would have won with about 500 pts. The actual high score was 383 for mikehobbyst. 

_______________________

 

2016 _ The max-60 rule was still not adopted, and scoring for DEN and PHX was quite low in Feb 2016 but I couldn't find any potential winning scores among those who would have seen improved scores. No doubt our current forecasters would have scored higher if they alone had been boosted.

 

month _______ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active

 

JAN ______ 724 __ wxdude64

FEB ______ 534 __ Midlo Snow Maker __ RodneyS _ 446

MAR ______665 __Maxim ______________ DonS _ 637

APR ______ 710 __ wxallannj __________ __ __ winter snow contest won by Mallow, wxdude64 (5th) had high score of current active forecasters

MAY ______ 708 __ Don Sutherland1 

JUN ______ 702 __ Damage in Tolland __ RodneyS __ 658

JUL ______ 754*__ OHweather 754 _____ wxdude64, hudsonvalley21 _ t744 __ *(Consensus won wit 756)

AUG ______ 646 __ RJay

SEP ______ 698 __ Maxim _______________ RJay _ 632 ____ Summer max contest co-winners Maxim and Mallow, RodneyS was 3rd

OCT _____ 580 __ Maxim _______________ RJay _ 560 

NOV _____ 650 __ Don Sutherland1 ____ four seasons winners (tied) DonS and RJay

DEC _____ 631 __ BKViking (despite 6% late penalty) 

DonSutherland1  won the annual contest with 7139 points. Damage in Tolland won extreme forecast award 9-0. Among currently active forecasters, RodneyS in fourth (7-3) was top currently active.

 

2017 still went forward without max-60 scoring and contests were not yet fully merged. The January scores were very low in eastern and central regions, due to very mild conditions. If max-60 had been applied, they would have been higher by at least 100 in some cases. Top scores were as low as 17 and 20. A much smaller adjustment was required in February 2017, where ORD had a top score of 49, and it was recorded by the eventual contest winner RJay. March also needed adjusting and after a discussion, we used a modified version of max-60 scoring. Score adjustments shown here use the current version.

 

month _______ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active

JAN _______ 452 (587) _ Don Sutherland1

FEB ________587 (598) _ RJay 

MAR _______518 (556) _ RodneyS _________ Mercurial won snowfall contest with RodneyS a close second.

APR _______ 628 __ RJay

MAY _______ 670 __ Don Sutherland1 ___ (Normal _ 702 actually "won" contest)

JUN _______ 694 __ wxallannj 

JUL ________778 __ RJay

AUG _______ 770 __ Don Sutherland1

SEP ________ 725 __ rainsucks ___________ BKViking _ 589 ____ CCM won seasonal max, one point ahead of BKViking

OCT _______ 645 __ rainsucks ___________ BKViking _ 627

NOV _______ 532 (556) _ RodneyS _______ RodneyS also won four seasons contest for 2017

DEC _______ 614 __ Don Sutherland1

The annual contest winner for 2017 was RJay, scoring 6417 (would have been closer to 6600 using current scoring). 

Extreme forecast winner was also RJay at 8-0. 

 

By late 2017 the contest turnout was beginning to look fairly similar to 2022-23, with perhaps three or four additional players. To drum up support I came up with the "Regional Rumble" concept for 2018 which compared scores of top forum sub-regional forecasters in a team format. This worked for a while but the overwhelming superiority of NYC and mid-Atlantic had a chilling effect and by end of 2018 we were pretty much back to square one, and the "Regional Rumble" went the way of the Edsel and robots who do housework. 

SD changed to Scotty Lightning during 2018, can't tell when as software changed username before I changed name in scoring tables. 

 

2018

As noted above, "Regional Rumble" took place in 2018. Best regional score (eastern, central, western) from any forecaster in sub-forum was used to determine format scoring. Also, max-60 finally made it to scoring system, so 2018 scores are directly comparable to more recent years.

month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active

JAN _______ 640 _ Mercurial __________ Don Sutherland1 _ 536 ___ "Regional Rumble" winner Central/western

FEB _______ 449 _ so_whats_happening (despite 4% late pen) ___ "Regional Rumble" winner Philly

MAR ______ 684 _ RodneyS ____________ "Regional Rumble" winner Mid Atlantic. 

APR _______ 627 _ RodneyS ____________ "Regional Rumble" winner NYC

MAY _______ 633 _ Roger Smith ________ "Regional Rumble" winner Central/West ___ snowfall contest winner Don Sutherland1

JUN _______ 744 _ BKViking (742 Tom) _ "Regional Rumble" winner NYC

JUL _______ 737 _ RodneyS _____________ "Regional Rumble" winner Mid Atlantic 

AUG ______ 618 _ Don Sutherland1 ______ "Regional Rumble" winner NYC

SEP _______ 688 _ RJay _________________ "Regional Rumble" winner NYC ___ seasonal max contest winner Don Sutherland1 

OCT _______ 650 _ Scotty Lightning ____ "Regional Rumble" winner Mid Atlantic 

NOV _______ 527 _ Scotty Lightning (Normal 540) __ "Regional Rumble" winner Philly ___ Four Seasons winner wxallannj

DEC _______ 572 _ wxallannj _____________"Regional Rumble" winner Philly (annual NYC) ___ Annual contest winner Scotty L (6393)

_______________ _______________ _________________ _________________ extreme forecast winner Roger Smith (15-1)

 

2019 _ Contest entrants now limited to current group plus Stebo who only entered first four, RJay also opted out for rest of year around May. Regional Rumble no longer in operation. Two guest appearances in 2019 by jakkelwx (July and Dec), and one each for tplbge (June), smerby (July), and Orangeburg Wx (Oct). 

month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active 

JAN _______ 676 _ hudsonvalley21

FEB _______ 585 _ stebo (despite 3% late pen) _ RodneyS _ 550

MAR ______ 737 _ wxdude64 _________ snowfall contest winner RodneyS (final report edited back from end of snow in APR-MAY)

APR _______ 707 _ RodneyS 

MAY _______ 658 _ RodneyS 

JUN _______ 792 _ wxdude64 

JUL _______ 686 _ Roger Smith 

AUG _______672 _ Scotty Lightning 

SEP _______ 600 _ Roger Smith ______ seasonal max contest winner wxallannj 

OCT _______ 682 _ Orangeburg Wx __ Don Sutherland1 586

NOV _______ 679 _ Roger Smith ______Four Seasons winner RodneyS (consensus marginally better score, based on ranks not points in 2019) 

DEC _______ 601 _ wxallannj __________Annual contest winner wxdude64 (7114) (RodneyS 7106) ___ Extreme forecast winner Roger Smith (27-8)

... also Roger Smith had a larger total of best forecasts but with quite a few very low scores, and so ended up middle of annual scoring table. 

 

2020 _ The year began with the current group of regulars (except for so_whats_happening who had been active around 2016-18 but not in 2019 or 2020), and a number of new faces, some of who entered more than once during 2020. Brian5671 entered eight, jakkelwx seven, yoda four, and rclab, dwave, Maxim and Rhino16 one each. Maxim was quite regularly entered in contests around 2014 to 2017. 

 

month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active 

JAN _______ 559 _ RodneyS

FEB _______ 701 _ RodneyS

MAR ______ 638 _ DonSutherland1 ___ snowfall contest winner wxallannj (final report edited back from end of snow in APR-MAY)

APR _______ 595 _ DonSutherland1 ... (632_Normal was actual winner)

MAY _______ 726 _ RodneyS 

JUN _______ 726 _ RJay (despite 2% late penalty) 

JUL _______ 664 _ RJay 

AUG _______732 _ Roger Smith 

SEP _______ 794 _ RodneyS __________ seasonal max contest winner RodneyS, wxallannj was 2nd by one point.

OCT _______ 690 _ Yoda _____________ hudsonvalley21 _ 660

NOV _______ 579 _ Roger Smith ______Four Seasons winner RodneyS

DEC _______ 730 _ DonSutherland1 ___Annual contest winner RodneyS (7223) __ extreme forecast winner Roger Smith 17-5 (RodneyS was 15-4). RJay at 13-0 

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ had the best differential. 

 

2021 __ The year began with the current regular entrants participating. Deformation Zone entered six from July to Dec. Stormchaser Chuck appeared in only one (NOV), and had previously entered a few contests as "A few universes below normal" (I think) in previous years. 

The seasonal max contest ran in a separate thread in an effort to attract extra forecasts (none were submitted). The infamous heat dome struck and SEA had a seasonal max of 108! Despite missing that by 16 deg, wxallannj won the contest. Our highest forecast for SEA was 99F. At my own location, an all time max of 113 was recorded. 

 

month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active 

JAN _______ 678 _ DonSutherland1 

FEB _______ 569 _ RodneyS

MAR ______  561 _ so_whats_happening and wxdude64 tied 

APR _______ 638 _ BKViking _________ snowfall contest winner RJay (final report edited back from end of snow in MAY)

MAY _______ 700 _ Tom _ (Normal 716 was actual winner) _ wxallannj 696 _ a close finish with different outcome relative to 1991-2020 normals announced during month

JUN _______ 609 _ Roger Smith _______ first contest with 1991-2020 values used. 

JUL _______ 680 _ RodneyS _ Normal 686 was actual winner

AUG _______736 _ Roger Smith 

SEP _______ 630 _ RJay (629 DonS) __ seasonal max contest winner wxallannj (separate thread).

OCT _______ 656 _ RJay (despite 1% late penalty)

NOV _______ 685 _ Roger Smith ______Four Seasons winner DonSutherland1 

DEC _______ 518 _ RodneyS ___Annual contest winner DonSutherland1 (7011)  RodneyS (6927)

__ __ __ extreme forecast outcome very similar to previous year ... winner Roger Smith 16-3, RodneyS was 15-1, RJay at 12-0.

 

2022 __ The contest featured more regular appearances by Stormchaser Chuck who made eight appearances; George001 entered DEC to enter snowfall contest, and added temperatures. The highlight of the year was probably the highest annual totals to date. RodneyS had a very good second half of the year.

 

month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active 

JAN _______ 682 _ wxdude64 

FEB _______ 690 _ DonSutherland1

MAR ______ 756 _ Tom

APR _______ 676 _ RJay _________ snowfall contest winner RodneyS (final report edited back from end of snow in MAY)

MAY _______660 _ DonSutherland1 _ (RJay 658 after 1% late penalty)

JUN _______ 718 _ Roger Smith 

JUL _______ 728 _ so_whats_happening

AUG _______682 _ Roger Smith 

SEP _______ 730 _ RodneyS ____ seasonal max contest winner RJay

OCT _______ 670 _ RodneyS

NOV _______ 618 _ BKViking ____ Four Seasons winner Rodney with DonSutherland1 only two points back iso

DEC _______ 740 _ RodneyS ___Annual contest winner Rodney S (7690) ... 2nd wxdude64 _ 7488 ... 3rd DonS _ 7462 (best totals in report so far) 

___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ (swh 11/12 contests, prorated score would be 7509). 

__ __ __ extreme forecast outcome very similar to previous two years ... winner Roger Smith 16-7, RodneyS was 12-2, Stormchaser Chuck

from 8/12 contests made a good score of 9.5-1. (unlike previous reports 2022 includes a reduction for ties, comparable numbers are

18-7, 14-2, 10-1.) 

 

 

2023 __ The current contest year will be fully reported going forward and then this entire report will be moved to end of DEC thread. Stormchaser Chuck has continued to enter a few but not all contests, and swh has been somewhat occasional so far at 7/11 to NOV. 

Rhino16 became a new regular forecaster in March. Rainsucks and Terpeast have each entered one contest. Tom missed March due to injury and is doing a great job of gradually catching up to the pack (already past your host).

 

month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active 

JAN _______ 554 _ DonSutherland1 

FEB _______ 674 _ Stormchaser Chuck __ RJay 657

MAR ______ 513 _ DonSutherland1 

APR _______ 652 _ wxdude64 _______ snowfall contest winner Scotty Lightning 

MAY _______700 _ tied wxallannj, hudsonvalley21 _ Consensus actually won with 720

JUN _______ 636 _ RodneyS 

JUL _______ 746 _ wxallannj

AUG _______722 _ DonSutherland1

SEP _______ 750 _ RodneyS

OCT _______690 _ Roger Smith _ (so_whats_happening 687 lost 7 pts to late pen)

NOV _______ 656 _ Rhino16 _____ wxallannj 648 _____ Don S wins four seasons contest, wxallannj second

DEC _______ 572 _ wxallannj _________________________ RJay (18-1) wins extreme forecast contest

______________________________________________________ Don S wins annual contest (7399), wxallannj second (7170)

 

 

Summary of contest wins, best scores 2014 to 2023

By end of 2023, 120 contests and 10 years of contests are now complete. This table will be updated into 2024 contest year. For each element scored, +field means additional wins only against current eleven regular players (not including Stormchaser Chuck or Rhino16), and that format also exists for last three groups (winter snowfall, summer max, extreme forecasts, four seasons _ nine years tracked) but no headings identify add-on values. A score of 0.5 indicates a tied result except for a conversion to best against current field from a tied win.

Best monthly score over ten years is shown in brackets beside forecaster name.

Wins in 2013 not counted in table, as formats were different. RodneyS won contest in 2013. 

 

FORECASTER _____ Wins (Mo) _+field__ total ___ Wins (Yr)_+field_total _ Snow _ Summer _ Extreme _ Four Seasons

DonSutherland1 (802) __ 21 _____ 8.5 ___29.5 ______ 3 _____ 1 ____ 4 ______ 1 _______ 1 _______ 0 ________ 2.5, 1, 3.5 __

RodneyS (794) __________19 ______ 4 _____23 _______ 3 _____ 0 ____ 3 ______2,1,3 ___ 1,2,3 ___ 0,1.5,1.5 ___ 4 ____

Roger Smith (808) ______14.5 ____ 2.5 ___ 17.0 ______ 1 _____ 0 _____ 1 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 6 ________ 0 ____

RJay (778) ______________ 11 ______ 3 _____14________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 _______ 1 ______ 2,0.5,2.5__0.5, 0, 0.5 __

wxallannj (770) __________7.5 ______3 ____ 10.5 ______0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 _______ 2 _______ 0 ________ 1 ____ 

wxdude64 (792) _________6.5_____ 0.5____ 7.0 ______ 1 _____ 0 _____ 1 ______ 0,1,1 _____ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____

Midlo Snow Maker (746) __5 ______ --_____ 5 _______ 0 _____--_____ 0 _______ 1 _______0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____

BKViking (744) ___________4.5 _____ 2.5 ___7.0 ______ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 _______0,1,1 ______ 0 ________ 0 ____

Scotty L (SD) __ (744) ____ 4 ______ 0 _____ 4 _______ 1 _____ 0 ______ 1 ______ 1 _______ 1 ________ 0 ________ 0 ____

Maxim (698) ______________ 3 ______ --_____ 3 _______ 0 _____--______ 0 ______ 0 ______ 0.5 ______ 0 _______ 0 ____

so_whats_happening(728)_2.5*_____0 ____2.5*_______ 0______ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____

Tom (756) _________________ 2 ______ 1 _____ 3 ________ 0______ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0, 1, 1 ___ 1 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____

Damage in Tolland (714) __ 2 ______ -- ____ 2 ________ 0 _____ --_____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 1 ________ 2 ________ 0 ____

rainsucks (725) ___________ 2 ______ --_____ 2 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____

Stebo (712) _______________ 2 ______ --_____ 2 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____

hudsonvalley21 (794) _____ 1 ______ 1.5____ 2.5 ______ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____

Mallow (810) ______________ 1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0 _____ --_____ 0 ______ 0 _______1.5 _______0 ________ 0 ____

StormchaserChuck (724) __1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0  ____

Isotherm (760) _____________1 ______ --_____ 0 ________ 1 _____ --_____ 1 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 1 ____

OHweather (754) __________1 ______ --_____ 0 ________ 0 _____ --_____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____

Absolute humidity _________ 1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____

ksammut (774) ____________ 1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____

Snoski14 ___________________ 1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____

Mercurial ___________________ 1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0______ --_____ 0 ______ 1 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ 

Orangeburg Wx (682) ______ 1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0______ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ 

Yoda (690) _________________ 1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____

CPick79 (N of Pike) ________0.5 ____ -- ____ 0.5 _______ 0 _____ -- _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____

mikehobbyst ________________1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____

Rhino16 _____________________1 _______--_____ 1 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____

CCM ________________________0 ______ --_____ 0 ________ 0 _____ --_____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 1 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____

 

 

* so_whats_happening had a higher raw score by four points than Oct 2023 contest winner Roger S but 1% late penalties on seven of nine reduced it to three points lower. 

 

(following not counted against wins above)

Consensus (756) ___________ 2

Normal (720) _______________ 4

 

Note: Best scores 810 Mallow and 808 Roger Smith, also hudsonvalley21 (794) occurred in same month (June 2014). blazes556, not a monthly winner at any point, scored 778. 

April 2014 also produced notably good scores, DonS 802 and Mallow 798, and goobagooba, despite never winning a month, had a score of 772 (also 756 in June 2014). 

Forecasters with no listed high score have not broken 720 so far and a later search will hopefully uncover actual high scores, also cannot confirm some of lower entries for high score. 

 

Will continue this project to completion later in 2023, in time to move it to end of annual 2023 roundup. 

Somewhat sadly, I can see the field of forecasters slowly reducing to the current core, and you wonder if some are still active at all, but it is what it is. 

 

 UPDATED for DEC 2023 and FOUR SEASONS, ANNUAL and EXTREME FORECASTS 2023

 

[hudsonvalley21]

Thank you Rodger for all the time and diligence you put into this contest. It is greatly appreciated. 

[so_whats_happening]

Yes thank you Roger it is appreciated. I hope to be more attentive with forecasts and not to be too conservative with anomalies this year. Hope you all have a great 2024!

[Stormchaserchuck1]

21 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Stormchaser Chuck appeared in only one (NOV), and had previously entered a few contests as "A few universes below normal" (I think) in previous years. 

Yes

[wxdude64]

Congrats to Don S for the win! Also, Roger, thank you for all the work you put into this!

[Roger Smith]

I should perhaps put the work into the forecasts too.

 

[Roger Smith]

Scoring is adjusted now that DCA finalized their report at +3.8 (all but one scored four points higher as a result).