Roger Smith Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 True story, I worked at Accu-weather in winter 1979-80 and next desk over was Joe B. It has been downhill ever since (for all of the above? one or two out of three? .. not sayin'). We TOTALLY NAILED the leap year day blizzard of 1980. Again, downhill ever since. It's a good job we did nail it because there was little snow otherwise. I dimly recall a 6" event around mid-Feb in PA ... Lake Placid NY had to run snow making machines full blast to stage the winter Olympics. It was almost as bad as last winter in terms of no snow, until Feb 28-29-mar 1, quite a storm down around Virginia Beach, and record cold in n.e. US, Ontario. At least we didn't have to choose between models, there was just one or two, the LFm Limited Fine mesh (sounds like a porn site, but it was not that kind of model). People say how forecasting has improved but I can recall some very good forecasts made with just the tech of 1970s and early 80s, and the good old LFm. That placed the Cleveland blizzard low (1-26-78) as a 960 mb over Lake Ontario 24h in advance, not quite right, but good enough to warn most affected areas of what was coming. Imagine my surprise on morning of Jan 26 coming into a (private forecasting) weather office in Toronto and discovering it was actually a 955 mb low over w Lake Erie to south end of Lake huron, and London ON was getting a south wind gusting to 90 knots with arctic air wrapping around the center blowing squalls off Lake Erie. We shall not see its like again, I suppose. I knew something was up, we were expecting a snowstorm in Toronto but it was raining and 40F with a very strong east wind at 0800h, and there was an air conditioning unit in my parking space blown off our building, then about 15 min after I got into work and was just looking in awe at the data (teletype), wind shifted to SSW 40 kts and the snow began, so the forecast worked out for wrong reasons in T.O. ... I don't recall if the Ohio blizzard was really nailed by forecasters or not, but from the primitive model of the day, a reasonably close approximation was possible, I would think there was a forecast of an ordinary to severe snowstorm but not the monster that actually hit. I always wonder what the current models would show for 1-26-78, that low was near Atlanta at 00z and deepened 30-40 mbs in only a few hours. I'm pretty sure they would have been a bit closer than Lake Ontario for its 12z position but maybe Erie PA 958 mbs or whatever is 50% better. Those primitive models also told us quite accurately that we would be on the track of Frederic (Sep 1979) and get 4-6 in of rain. Forecasting has not improved very much in my humble opinion, possibly at 3-5 days? But we used to hand draw those progs. And they were often pretty good. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, Roger Smith said: True story, I worked at Accu-weather in winter 1979-80 and next desk over was Joe B. It has been downhill ever since (for all of the above? one or two out of three? .. not sayin'). We TOTALLY NAILED the leap year day blizzard of 1980. Again, downhill ever since. It's a good job we did nail it because there was little snow otherwise. I dimly recall a 6" event around mid-Feb in PA ... Lake Placid NY had to run snow making machines full blast to stage the winter Olympics. It was almost as bad as last winter in terms of no snow, until Feb 28-29-mar 1, quite a storm down around Virginia Beach, and record cold in n.e. US, Ontario. At least we didn't have to choose between models, there was just one or two, the LFm Limited Fine mesh (sounds like a porn site, but it was not that kind of model). People say how forecasting has improved but I can recall some very good forecasts made with just the tech of 1970s and early 80s, and the good old LFm. That placed the Cleveland blizzard low (1-26-78) as a 960 mb over Lake Ontario 24h in advance, not quite right, but good enough to warn most affected areas of what was coming. Imagine my surprise on morning of Jan 26 coming into a (private forecasting) weather office in Toronto and discovering it was actually a 955 mb low over w Lake Erie to south end of Lake huron, and London ON was getting a south wind gusting to 90 knots with arctic air wrapping around the center blowing squalls off Lake Erie. We shall not see its like again, I suppose. I knew something was up, we were expecting a snowstorm in Toronto but it was raining and 40F with a very strong east wind at 0800h, and there was an air conditioning unit in my parking space blown off our building, then about 15 min after I got into work and was just looking in awe at the data (teletype), wind shifted to SSW 40 kts and the snow began, so the forecast worked out for wrong reasons in T.O. ... I don't recall if the Ohio blizzard was really nailed by forecasters or not, but from the primitive model of the day, a reasonably close approximation was possible, I would think there was a forecast of an ordinary to severe snowstorm but not the monster that actually hit. I always wonder what the current models would show for 1-26-78, that low was near Atlanta at 00z and deepened 30-40 mbs in only a few hours. I'm pretty sure they would have been a bit closer than Lake Ontario for its 12z position but maybe Erie PA 958 mbs or whatever is 50% better. Those primitive models also told us quite accurately that we would be on the track of Frederic (Sep 1979) and get 4-6 in of rain. Forecasting has not improved very much in my humble opinion, possibly at 3-5 days? But we used to hand draw those progs. And they were often pretty good. You were one year too late at AccuWeather to have helped forecast the Presidents Day Storm of 1979, which occurred in the Mid-Atlantic on February 18-19. However, I recall that AccuWeather did a much better job of forecasting that storm than did the National Weather Service. If you have any old AccuWeather contacts left, you might want to ask them about that storm. The following article, written by two members of the Capital Weather Gang, notes the failure of the National Weather Service to even come close on that forecast: How the surprise President’s Day snowstorm of 1979 advanced forecasting - The Washington Post 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I recall the weather situation around that, in Ontario where I was that winter, we had an extreme cold spell where the temperature stayed below zero F all day. This place where I worked did forecasts for industrial clients relating to air pollution control, so it was rather technical work (telling people if it was going to be safe to operate or would they be killing folks) and not public forecasting stuff, but I recall the low in question passing by to our south and a big warm up that followed after quite a cold February was just about done. I would have to pull some historical weather maps (maybe in article you linked) but I seem to recall a high of around 1055 mbs being involved in the extreme cold. It was so cold we cancelled a planned trip that involved a cross-country ski event around Ottawa where it was looking like -20 F instead of just the balmy zero F we had in Toronto. I don't keep in touch with anyone at Accu-wx but I did meet some very nice people, as well as Joe B. (jk, younger Joe was shall we say an intense weather nerd and not afraid to go against the herd). I was on the technical side, rather than forecasting, but everyone got to chip in on forecast discussions. This is what they would do for every big event -- every person would draw up their own map and then they would put them all up on a wall and discuss. At the end of the discussion they had a consensus forecast. And you know how good those can be. - - - so I looked up the charts and read the article. It was the same set of events, the big high was over Ontario on Saturday 17th and the PD-1 event was on the 19th. I guess it ran into quite a wall of cold air. And that, as the article relates, ended a long cold winter once it played out. I've been very lucky to experience so many big weather events, I was also right in the worst part of the July 1995 derecho event, and actually had the eye of hugo pass over home base in its dying phases. Also some epic lake effect storms and huge snowstorms like 1-23-1966 and the Chicago blizzard a year later but getting both the warm sector and a big chunk of the snowstorm! I guess when I was young I thought the weather was going to stay in that beast mode forever, by around 1986 I was starting to wonder, what happened to our weather machine, this is getting pretty boring now. All the big storms I saw in "formative years" are no doubt a reason why I tend to go for the fences on forecasts sometimes, must be nostalgia overcoming common sense. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/16/2024 at 1:49 PM, Roger Smith said: Until Feb 5-6. In the new normal, we seem to only get one decent storm in January... my forecast accounted for this one-and-done. But I've seen several people pointing to early February as the time to watch, which would make sense historically, so we'll see if I get blown out or not. Obviously I hope I'm proven wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 You had a great run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 I'm thinking @Kmlwxhas this in the bag now, like dead-on-balls accurate. Just my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted January 20 Author Share Posted January 20 9 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: Your reign was awesome, but like Pope John Paul I, all too brief. Here is the updated spreadsheet: 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 That’s gotta be the widest gap ever between RIC and the other three airports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted January 20 Author Share Posted January 20 1 hour ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: That’s gotta be the widest gap ever between RIC and the other three airports. It is certainly not what I envisioned, but during the 2006-07 (Weak El Nino) winter season, the final snow totals were: BWI 11.0, DCA 9.5, IAD 14.7, RIC 1.3. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Omg!!! I haven't even been following since I submitted my entry. I was wondering why I got tagged in here. It won't hold 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted January 20 Author Share Posted January 20 Yesterday's snow totals at the three Baltimore-Washington airports have all been revised upward; see updated spreadsheet below. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 A repeat of 1-23-2016 (obviously not on 1-23-2024) would work almost perfectly for AtlanticWx or psuhoffman. One or two modest KU events in Feb and march plus 2-4 other events would work well for quite a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted February 13 Author Share Posted February 13 Somewhere along the way, IAD's snow total for January was revised upward by 0.2 inches, and today IAD added another 0.6 inches. Those changes move SnowDreamer and RickinBaltimore into stronger contention, while eliminating me. Kmlwx and GramaxRefugee are still the Top Two and both benefited from no measurable snow today at BWI and DCA. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted February 17 Author Share Posted February 17 This Presidents Day weekend storm did not quite live up to billing, but did produce 2.2 inches at BWI, 0.1 at DCA, and 1.1 at IAD. That enabled RickinBaltimore to move into second place behind Kmlwx. A very competitive leaderboard, but will the Mid-Atlantic receive any more snow this season? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 On 2/17/2024 at 10:02 AM, RodneyS said: This Presidents Day weekend storm did not quite live up to billing, but did produce 2.2 inches at BWI, 0.1 at DCA, and 1.1 at IAD. That enabled RickinBaltimore to move into second place behind Kmlwx. A very competitive leaderboard, but will the Mid-Atlantic receive any more snow this season? See we just need a southern snowfall now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted February 19 Author Share Posted February 19 7 hours ago, RickinBaltimore said: See we just need a southern snowfall now... You don't even need that if you get the 0.1 inch you need to nail BWI and the 1.3 inches you need to nail DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 I had not been checking the thread - I thought for sure I would be out after the little snow event. Goes to show you weather is a lot of guesswork...my entry was a total shot in the dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted March 5 Author Share Posted March 5 1 hour ago, Kmlwx said: I had not been checking the thread - I thought for sure I would be out after the little snow event. Goes to show you weather is a lot of guesswork...my entry was a total shot in the dark. Nice shot - especially in foreseeing the large gap between RIC and the other three airports. Day-by-day, the clock is ticking in your favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 21 minutes ago, RodneyS said: Nice shot - especially in foreseeing the large gap between RIC and the other three airports. Day-by-day, the clock is ticking in your favor. I'm torn on whether to root for a last minute freak snowstorm that makes me lose....or if I should just hope for the win at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted March 5 Author Share Posted March 5 23 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: I'm torn on whether to root for a last minute freak snowstorm that makes me lose....or if I should just hope for the win at this point. I hope to have that dilemma next March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 3 hours ago, Kmlwx said: I'm torn on whether to root for a last minute freak snowstorm that makes me lose....or if I should just hope for the win at this point. At this time of year, a heavy snow would be melted in a few days anyway. Winning Glory Never Melts. However....2.5 inches at RIC, with a little bit at IAD would suit me fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted March 5 Author Share Posted March 5 44 minutes ago, GramaxRefugee said: At this time of year, a heavy snow would be melted in a few days anyway. Winning Glory Never Melts. However....2.5 inches at RIC, with a little bit at IAD would suit me fine. You need at least 0.2 inches at IAD to pass RickinBaltimore, and 1.3 inches there would pull you within 0.3 of Kmlwx. If the latter happens, an inch at RIC could do it for you. I think 1.3 at IAD is much more likely than 1.0 at RIC, but you never know. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 5 hours ago, Kmlwx said: I'm torn on whether to root for a last minute freak snowstorm that makes me lose....or if I should just hope for the win at this point. Your safe lol Congratulations 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 Mazel Tov to KMLWX...now it's time to reel in some storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 I have never been SO WRONG. It was the Nino that couldn't. My hopes were so high and now dashed. Moral of this story: Go West, young man for snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 My preliminary snow forecast for next winter is a few inches for all stations. It's going to be mild and Nina. Even PSU will have trouble getting six inches. Tropical weather should be a blast, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted April 1 Author Share Posted April 1 April showers have arrived in the Mid-Atlantic, but it is rather obvious that they will not produce any measurable snow. So, it is time to award the 2023-24 Championship Trophy to Kmlwx. He was the second entrant on the day that the contest opened on 11-1-2023, but his "shot in the dark" hit the bullseye, as he accurately forecast not only another quiet snow season in the Mid-Atlantic, but also nailed the wide disparity between the snow total at Richmond and BWI/Dulles. RickinBaltimore would have walked away with the trophy if RIC were excluded, but he labored under the illusion that the airport is still located in Virginia, having missed the news that it was recently relocated to Richmond County, Georgia . . . Okay, that's an April Fool's joke, but it does seem that way regarding snow. So, congratulations to Kmlwx, and the rest of us will try again this November. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 Congratulations kmlwx, good call on RIC... unfortunately. Here in the mountains wasn’t a lot better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Wish I had been wrong but thanks everyone and especially to @RodneyS for putting on the contest! Let's hope we all get a blockbuster winter at some point. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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