Itstrainingtime Posted October 27, 2023 Author Share Posted October 27, 2023 Mainly cloudy and 64 in Maytown. WAY behind yesterday's readings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted October 27, 2023 Author Share Posted October 27, 2023 MU backed his high temps for today down several degrees, but is still calling for 84 tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 27, 2023 Share Posted October 27, 2023 6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Mainly cloudy and 64 in Maytown. WAY behind yesterday's readings. The HRRR could be off its rocker, but it still says upper 70's today for most of the LSV when the clouds part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted October 27, 2023 Author Share Posted October 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The HRRR could be off its rocker, but it still says upper 70's today for most of the LSV when the clouds part. Temps could take off quickly - could definitely see at least a 10-12 degree rise yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 27, 2023 Share Posted October 27, 2023 8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Temps could take off quickly - could definitely see at least a 10-12 degree rise yet. Still major differences at 12Z for Sun and Mon. GFS keeps the slp going south of us as the primary low for this weekend while the Icon and CMC keep the primary farther west and keep most of the LSV and near in the much An area. Nam sides with its American cousin while RGEM sides with big daddy. 20-25 degree different in solutions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted October 27, 2023 Share Posted October 27, 2023 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Still major differences at 12Z for Sun and Mon. GFS keeps the slp going south of us as the primary low for this weekend while the Icon and CMC keep the primary farther west and keep most of the LSV and near in the much An area. Nam sides with its American cousin while RGEM sides with big daddy. 20-25 degree different in solutions. I've been keeping an eye on this as well. Subtle differences making for huge shifts in the forecast. As always, will be interesting to see who wins the model wars. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 27, 2023 Share Posted October 27, 2023 7 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: I've been keeping an eye on this as well. Subtle differences making for huge shifts in the forecast. As always, will be interesting to see who wins the model wars. Would be a significant factor in what the monthly means end at if MDT spends two days in the 50's vs. the 70's for highs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted October 27, 2023 Share Posted October 27, 2023 Sitting at 69 here which is my high for the day, and yes I can report an accurate daytime temp because I've been under cloud cover all day haha. Had some stuff on the radar overhead but no actual drops fell. About to sneak in what may be my last mow of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted October 27, 2023 Author Share Posted October 27, 2023 MU weighing in on Sunday and his verdict on temps/precip: Despite a mostly cloudy start this morning, skies should gradually brighten through the afternoon hours. Due to the clouds, highs will likely fall short of reaching 80°F but should still peak in the mid-to-upper 70s. The large, Jet Stream ridge currently in place over the eastern United States will remain amplified enough to control our weather pattern through the start of Halloween weekend. As a result, partly sunny and unseasonably warm conditions will persist on Saturday with highs back in the upper 70s to low 80s. Unfortunately, the cold front that I talked about in Tuesday's discussion will move through the Lower Susquehanna Valley earlier than previously anticipated. Instead of stalling near the I-80 corridor, it should move 100-150 miles farther south Saturday night before finally coming to a halt near I-70. This has big implications on the forecast for Sunday and Monday. In the wake of the front, winds will turn northeasterly and usher much cooler air into south-central and southeastern PA. Low temperatures Saturday night should still only drop into the low-to-mid 50s, but clouds and showers on Sunday will prevent highs from exceeding the mid-to-upper 60s. There is still some uncertainty as to the exact location of the front's placement on Sunday and Monday, but the odds now favor cooler and cloudier conditions.. along with intermittent showers.. during this period. If rain is steadier and the front even farther south on both days, then high temperatures could be even lower, or only in the upper 50s to perhaps 60°F. The most widespread showers should impact the region on Sunday morning and then again on Monday. A wave of low pressure will still develop near the tail end of the front on Sunday, but it will now track over southern PA or northern MD instead of across southern New England. The second round of showers late Sunday night into Monday will be associated with this system. It will also drag the cold front farther south and east and into the Carolinas by Tuesday. From Sunday morning through Monday afternoon, rainfall totals may range from a mere one tenth of inch or less south of the Mason-Dixon Line up to 0.75" in northern Perry, Dauphin, and/or Lebanon Counties. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 27, 2023 Share Posted October 27, 2023 7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: MU weighing in on Sunday and his verdict on temps/precip: Despite a mostly cloudy start this morning, skies should gradually brighten through the afternoon hours. Due to the clouds, highs will likely fall short of reaching 80°F but should still peak in the mid-to-upper 70s. The large, Jet Stream ridge currently in place over the eastern United States will remain amplified enough to control our weather pattern through the start of Halloween weekend. As a result, partly sunny and unseasonably warm conditions will persist on Saturday with highs back in the upper 70s to low 80s. Unfortunately, the cold front that I talked about in Tuesday's discussion will move through the Lower Susquehanna Valley earlier than previously anticipated. Instead of stalling near the I-80 corridor, it should move 100-150 miles farther south Saturday night before finally coming to a halt near I-70. This has big implications on the forecast for Sunday and Monday. In the wake of the front, winds will turn northeasterly and usher much cooler air into south-central and southeastern PA. Low temperatures Saturday night should still only drop into the low-to-mid 50s, but clouds and showers on Sunday will prevent highs from exceeding the mid-to-upper 60s. There is still some uncertainty as to the exact location of the front's placement on Sunday and Monday, but the odds now favor cooler and cloudier conditions.. along with intermittent showers.. during this period. If rain is steadier and the front even farther south on both days, then high temperatures could be even lower, or only in the upper 50s to perhaps 60°F. The most widespread showers should impact the region on Sunday morning and then again on Monday. A wave of low pressure will still develop near the tail end of the front on Sunday, but it will now track over southern PA or northern MD instead of across southern New England. The second round of showers late Sunday night into Monday will be associated with this system. It will also drag the cold front farther south and east and into the Carolinas by Tuesday. From Sunday morning through Monday afternoon, rainfall totals may range from a mere one tenth of inch or less south of the Mason-Dixon Line up to 0.75" in northern Perry, Dauphin, and/or Lebanon Counties. Another kick in the groin for far south PA precip deficits. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted October 27, 2023 Author Share Posted October 27, 2023 17 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Another kick in the groin for far south PA precip deficits. Unfortunately...it looks that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 27, 2023 Share Posted October 27, 2023 14 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Unfortunately...it looks that way. We have had our Phil of drought map colors this summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 27, 2023 Share Posted October 27, 2023 12Z EC leans toward Mu's thoughts but real close Sun and Mon. The difference between 50's and 70's is one county on Mon. 75 here right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 27, 2023 Share Posted October 27, 2023 Good job by the HRRR. Most NWS stations south of MDT are up in to or on the cusp of the upper 70's now. MDT is in their own world like yesterday. Seemed ublikjely with the slow starts and rain earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 27, 2023 Share Posted October 27, 2023 Skyline Drive looks to be at peak color. Time sensative pic attached along with link for future viewing. https://www.nps.gov/shen/learn/photosmultimedia/view_webcam.htm 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 27, 2023 Share Posted October 27, 2023 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Skyline Drive looks to be at peak color. Time sensative pic attached along with link for future viewing. https://www.nps.gov/shen/learn/photosmultimedia/view_webcam.htm Are you down there right now or just using the web cam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 27, 2023 Share Posted October 27, 2023 12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Are you down there right now or just using the web cam? Webcam 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 27, 2023 Share Posted October 27, 2023 75 at my house - warmest of the day. It’s halter top city today here in NYC. Think it got around 77. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted October 27, 2023 Author Share Posted October 27, 2023 Made it to 76 for the high today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 27, 2023 Share Posted October 27, 2023 Looks like LNS and THV bagged themselves a 77 or 78 and CXY a 78 or 79. MDT is silly right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 27, 2023 Share Posted October 27, 2023 18z Gfs. 66hrs temp anomaly on top and 72 hrs on the bottom. Sweet! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted October 28, 2023 Share Posted October 28, 2023 And I don't wanna hear no bullshit about you people who ain't watching this trash going to cash in on your free taco. Those aren't for you. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted October 28, 2023 Author Share Posted October 28, 2023 70.1 at 10:40pm! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 28, 2023 Share Posted October 28, 2023 A "Luda" 60 at 4:45AM. MDT made it to 58 or 59 at some point avoiding the Max low record. Almost all models that showed a BN Sunday continue to "leak" a bit with warmth getting farther and farther north. Before it ranged from the upper 40's to the mid 70's between suites but now it looks more like upper 50's to mid 70's for the LSV for most suites. Only truly well BN suite I see left is Fv3. Even the Nam is out of the BN camp now. Hopefully it will soon be time for the cold to take over. Certainly, looks quite chilly for 4-6 days through next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted October 28, 2023 Share Posted October 28, 2023 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: A "Luda" 60 at 4:45AM. MDT made it to 58 or 59 at some point avoiding the Max low record. Almost all models that showed a BN Sunday continue to "leak" a bit with warmth getting farther and farther north. Before it ranged from the upper 40's to the mid 70's between suites but now it looks more like upper 50's to mid 70's for the LSV for most suites. Only truly well BN suite I see left is Fv3. Even the Nam is out of the BN camp now. Hopefully it will soon be time for the cold to take over. Certainly, looks quite chilly for 4-6 days through next week. 55 this morning. NWS forecast high tomorrow for me 53 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 28, 2023 Share Posted October 28, 2023 15 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: 55 this morning. NWS forecast high tomorrow for me 53 That is fair with how far North you are. Down my way we could be looking at 55 or 75+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted October 28, 2023 Share Posted October 28, 2023 40 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: That is fair with how far North you are. Down my way we could be looking at 55 or 75+. I need that warmer air to stay here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted October 28, 2023 Share Posted October 28, 2023 Forecast high on Wednesday is 41. They removed the snow from the forecast. Ughhhh.Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 28, 2023 Share Posted October 28, 2023 8 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: I need that warmer air to stay here. Get out and enjoy the day. LOL. How high can CXY get? 85? over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted October 28, 2023 Share Posted October 28, 2023 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Get out and enjoy the day. LOL. How high can CXY get? 85? over? I'll guess 83 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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