HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 The eastern eyewall is starting to look healthier again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 1 minute ago, MattPetrulli said: ...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION THIS MORNING... ...6 AM POSITION UPDATE... Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Idalia has maximum sustained winds of 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. The estimated minimum pressure indicated by Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 942 mb (27.82 inches). Within the past hour, a C-MAN station on Cedar Key measured sustained winds of 41 mph (66 km/h), with a gust to 47 mph (76 km/h), and a Weatherflow station at Apalachee Bay measured a sustained wind of 41 mph (66 km/h), with a gust to 51 mph (83 km/h). SUMMARY OF 600 AM EDT...1000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.3N 83.9W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WNW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SSE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...27 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES Pressure coming up. Not surprising. Looks ragged on satellite. Curious if we will see it drop below cat 4 before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Band setting up down south may do the dirty work with pushing in the surge and delivering TS-hurricane conditions outside of the inner eyewall. Setting up at a bad angle too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 3 minutes ago, dan11295 said: Not many reporting stations in the landfall area though. Although even Perry is only gusting to 35 mph last hour. Not terribly windy here yet. Pressure falling steadily though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 2 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Pressure coming up. Not surprising. Looks ragged on satellite. Curious if we will see it drop below cat 4 before landfall. Landfall is 2-3hrs away. They'll keep it at 130mph until then. This is a higher end 3 if we're being honest and a relatively small system. Florida is fortunate it's hitting a remote location too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Landfall is 2-3hrs away. They'll keep it at 130mph until then. This is a higher end 3 if we're being honest and a relatively small system. Florida is fortunate it's hitting a remote location too. It was def Cat 4 but like an hour and a half before they did the 5 am advisory 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Given its forward speed and intense convective dynamics I do think inland impacts will be a lot worse than people expect all the way up to GA/SC It doesn't help that it's almost hugging the SE coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 excessive wind warning issued for horse shoe beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 I am sure they operationally keep it a 4, since landfall is less than 2 hours away this point. Probably bring it down a bit at landfall in the TCR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Man this thing is really trying to take a right turn. Steinhatchee may still be in the game for an eye passage at this rate. Tallahassee could really be dodging a bullet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 The surge and flooding is going to be the real story of this storm for a larger area then the wind … Even when it gets up to SC https://waterdata.usgs.gov/fl/nwis/rt https://waterdata.usgs.gov/sc/nwis/rt https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stationhome.html?id=8727520 https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/map/index.html?region=Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Se eyewall completely gone on radar again. Nw side still fierce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Definite weakening trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Watching several chasers live right now, situation continues to get worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Clearly seems to be beginning an ERC which will probably help the wind-aspect of this system for coastal Florida. Also, if that is the case, could cause weakening once inland a little more quickly than expected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 South like the the southern eyewall has opened up, at least it will be weakening some on landfall. Doesn't mean anything for the storm surge of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Looks like Sarasota FL has very high waters in the street Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Things picking up quickly here. Pressure falling as winds come up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Lowered to Cat 3 125 mph due to the EWRC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Halficane but instead of usual southern semi-circle being absent it's the eastern semi-circle. I know they kept it at 130mph cat 4 but I doubt it's cat 4 anymore imo. Regardless still going to be destructive esp with storm surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Just dropped back to cat3 due to ERC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Lots of beautiful spots up the Nature Coast in serious trouble today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 6 minutes ago, Dsty2001 said: Just dropped back to cat3 due to ERC I kind of figured it wasn't cat 4 anymore. I didn't think it would attempt an ewrc before landfall though because of fast forward motion but I was mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Cedar Key is approaching 10 ft If Horseshoe beach manages to stay in the band a little longer I can see them surpassing Cedar Key, esp with back flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 34 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Definite weakening trend Heading towards the Gulf Half-a-canes we used to see before Michael, looks like dry air eroding the east side. It’s probably a 120mph storm at this point. Thankfully it’s hitting a sparsely populated area for the worst surge but the inland effects will be pretty serious with the winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Looks like the beach just SSW of Perry is going to be ground zero for landfall in about 90 minutes, given the NNE motion at 18 mph with 125 mph winds, as the storm weakened a touch... Hurricane Idalia Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023 700 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023 ...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OCCURRING IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION... ...7 AM POSITION UPDATE... Radar and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that an eyewall replacement cycle has begun. Idalia's maximum sustained winds are now estimated near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. This change in wind speed does not diminish the threat of catastrophic storm surge and damaging winds. The estimated minimum pressure indicated by Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 947 mb (27.96 inches). SUMMARY OF 700 AM EDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.6N 83.8W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 While the EWRC is good for the Big Bend it can extend the overall windfield which may not be so great for southern Georgia. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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