2023-24 Winter Speculation Thread

[GaWx]

2 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

Where do you get those charts so we can view?

https://s2s.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Boone, how are they getting the most recent PDO numbers?  It is almost like a daily index.  I can only find data which is released at the end of each month.  Is it pay data or government access data?

Yep, those 1990s Nino analogs are nasty for the most part!!!!  My main concern is the dry wx which is is plaguing the region.  But....those dry Sept/Oc patterns often turned cold for winter - if we can actually say that is a true correlation. 

I do like the storm tracks which are showing up on the latest GFS runs.  As we get closer to November, those tracks do have some correlation - lots of coastals modeled.  No idea if they will verify.

Pay. Like you, the dryness is a concern but, as you said many times Winter's are cold afterward. Also, agree with you in better chances to track and for more snow than last couple Winters. 

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 It was -.70 yesterday per below though the NOAA PDO runs more negative and is thus likely ~-1.25:

Thanks for the update!  How do you like that service(models? indices?)?  Very cool.  Very sharp, near-reversal.  I wonder if it descends again, or this is part of a pattern changer per term?  Neutral is tolerable.

[Carvers Gap]

30 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Pay. Like you, the dryness is a concern but, as you said many times Winter's are cold afterward. Also, agree with you in better chances to track and for more snow than last couple Winters. 

I think better for this end of the forum.  The 12z GFS was interesting for sure.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Thanks for the update!  How do you like that service(models? indices?)?  Very cool.  Very sharp, near-reversal.  I wonder if it descends again, or this is part of a pattern changer per term?  Neutral is tolerable.

 I don’t subscribe. This is from the link posted above. After such a sharp rise, the current decline back to -0.7 from -0.2 is totally expected (reverse dead-cat bounce). What’s not known is how much further this reverse dead-cat will go. Per the current trajectory, it going back below -1 at least for a short period wouldn’t surprise me. Also, the monthly NOAA PDOs have been a good bit more neg than the ones calculated from WCS dailies. If there were a NOAA daily reported, I’d guess it would be ~-1.25 to -1.5. Regardless, Oct will almost certainly come in much less negative than Sep on both. I’m wild guessing ~-1.75 for Oct NOAA vs -2.94 in Sep. That would mean a rise of ~1.19, which is quite significant. We’ll see whether the overall momentum of rising continues into Nov. I’m leaning that way based on the huge rise (on the posted graph) earlier this month along with it being a strong Nino. My hope as a cold preferrer is that we end up with a DJF PDO higher than -1 and preferably higher than -0.75 (I’m talking about how NOAA table measures it).

 Analogous El Niño SE winters following sharp Sep to Nov rises are 1876-7 (cold), 1880-1 (cool), 1884-5 (cool), 1969-70 (cold), 1986-7 (normal), and 2002-3 (cool). It is important that the rise continues through at least Nov.

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 I don’t subscribe. This is from the link posted above. After such a sharp rise, the current decline back to -0.7 from -0.2 is totally expected (reverse dead-cat bounce). What’s not known is how much further this reverse dead-cat will go. Per the current trajectory, it going back below -1 at least for a short period wouldn’t surprise me. Also, the monthly NOAA PDOs have been a good bit more neg than the ones calculated from WCS dailies. If there were a NOAA daily reported, I’d guess it would be ~-1.25 to -1.5. Regardless, Oct will almost certainly come in much less negative than Sep on both. I’m wild guessing ~-1.75 for Oct NOAA vs -2.94 in Sep. That would mean a rise of ~1.19, which is quite significant. We’ll see whether the overall momentum of rising continues into Nov. I’m leaning that way based on the huge rise (on the posted graph) earlier this month along with it being a strong Nino. My hope as a cold preferrer is that we end up with a DJF PDO higher than -1 and preferably higher than -0.75 (I’m talking about how NOAA table measures it).

 Analogous El Niño SE winters following sharp Sep to Nov rises are 1876-7 (cold), 1880-1 (cool), 1884-5 (cool), 1969-70 (cold), 1986-7 (normal), and 2002-3 (cool). It is important that the rise continues through at least Nov

Thanks for the encouragement Larry. I knew the PDO was near neutral and was thinking at least we shouldn't have the -PDO effects of what some are still touting. All those Winters you listed were above average Snowfall here. And that was from those era's Averages. 

      

[nrgjeff]

Rutgers snow chart has me about has happy as I was when Kansas beat Oklahoma. Winning!

Sea level pressure (not shown) is AN in Scandanavia, Alaska, and eastern Siberia. Also helpful BN in mid-latitude China.

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, nrgjeff said:

Rutgers snow chart has me about has happy as I was when Kansas beat Oklahoma. Winning!

Sea level pressure (not shown) is AN in Scandanavia, Alaska, and eastern Siberia. Also helpful BN in mid-latitude China.

Yeah, really gained traction lately. Looking good ! 

[Itryatgolf70]

1 minute ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, really gained traction lately. Looking good ! 

I know they mentioned 1976-77 with it being ep, but it probably wasn't this strong like this niño is. That was legendary from what I've been told

[Met1985]

6 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, really gained traction lately. Looking good ! 

Just my opinion but we definitely have a better pattern setting up with winter than last. I'll eat my words if it's another dud.

[Daniel Boone]

Just now, Itryatgolf70 said:

I know they mentioned 1976-77 with it being ep, but it probably wasn't this strong like this niño is. That was legendary from what I've been told

Yeah, I was 14 that Winter and already keeping a Weather Diary. That was coldest November on Record. December and January were either coldest or within top 3 in Tennessee Valley. Snow covered shaded , protected areas at my home in Lee County from early December till mid February . It was over 2 feet deep at one point in the shade in January . It was so frozen, as we had some freezing rain at times that month that hardened it, that w actually sledded off the hills in our slick bottoms 70's shoes like you would skis on top of the snow ! 

[Itryatgolf70]

9 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, really gained traction lately. Looking good ! 

If we had computers back in the 70s winters, it would have been ALOT of long sleepless nights looking at models and posting like crazy lol

[Daniel Boone]

1 minute ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

If we had computers back in the 70s winters, it would have been ALOT of long sleepless nights looking at models and posting like crazy lol

Yep ! Those late '70's Winter's were fun for Winter weather lover's.

    '77-78 was even snowier and lasted longer. Snow covered the ground here from early December till early March ! It wasn't quite as cold as '76-77 as far as lowest temperature but, was also constantly cold. Snowfalls were bigger that Winter. Totalled 72" in Pennington gap for snowiest on Record there. 76-77 nearly 40". 

 Both were weak Nino. Although, '77-78 probably moreso neutral. 

 

[Itryatgolf70]

17 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yep ! Those late '70's Winter's were fun for Winter weather lover's.

    '77-78 was even snowier and lasted longer. Snow covered the ground here from early December till early March ! It wasn't quite as cold as '76-77 as far as lowest temperature but, was also constantly cold. Snowfalls were bigger that Winter. Totalled 72" in Pennington gap for snowiest on Record there. 76-77 nearly 40". 

 Both were weak Nino. Although, '77-78 probably moreso neutral. 

 

It's crazy that JB always mentions those winters that this winter will be like those winters lol. I was excited with the 2013-14 winter. It was amazing here

[beavis1729]

1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yep ! Those late '70's Winter's were fun for Winter weather lover's.

    '77-78 was even snowier and lasted longer. Snow covered the ground here from early December till early March ! It wasn't quite as cold as '76-77 as far as lowest temperature but, was also constantly cold. Snowfalls were bigger that Winter. Totalled 72" in Pennington gap for snowiest on Record there. 76-77 nearly 40". 

 Both were weak Nino. Although, '77-78 probably moreso neutral. 

 

Yeah, 77-78 and 78-79 were the two snowiest winters in Chicago’s history. 82” and 90” respectively…and in 78-79 some places in far NE IL exceeded 100”.

Plus, peak music…and disco ruled.  Good times!

[Daniel Boone]

54 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Yeah, 77-78 and 78-79 were the two snowiest winters in Chicago’s history. 82” and 90” respectively…and in 78-79 some places in far NE IL exceeded 100”.

Plus, peak music…and disco ruled.  Good times!

Yep. The good ole days for sure ! 78-79 was also snowy here after a late start. Autumn was mild. December cold but rainy. They were having to ship snow to eastern resorts from out west via rail . Then cold and snow set in in early January and lasted till mid March. 

[John1122]

3 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

I know they mentioned 1976-77 with it being ep, but it probably wasn't this strong like this niño is. That was legendary from what I've been told

The cold of January 1977 was unlike anything I've ever seen. I was a kid and thought the 70s and early 80s were normal. We regularly got 4+ inch snows that snowed on top of snow. Schools being out 1 to 2 weeks were common. 

January '77 was so cold here that we only reached 40+ degrees 3 days. One of those was 40 even. The highest temperature of the whole month was 47. 10 days we had below 0 lows. 6 more days had lows between 5 and 0. 20 days the high was 32 or below. 

In December 1976 we had 2.5 inches of snow on December 21st-22nd, 3 inches December 25-26th, 6.5 inches the 29-Jan 1st 1977. That led to a -11 degree low on New Years. We got 1/2 inch on Jan 4th, 4 inches on the 7th, 7 inches on the 10th. 14th and 15th we got 1/2 inch of snow and .35 freezing rain. That led into back to back days of -17 degree lows with highs in the single digits. 

These are the high/lows the last 20 days of Jan 1977 imby. 

Jan 11th 25/-5

Jan 12th 24/-7

Jan 13th 28/2

Jan 14th 35/2

Jan 15th 36/24

Jan 16th 38/5

Jan 17th 8/-17

Jan 18th 19/-17

Jan 19th 16/-7

Jan 20th 23/-2

Jan 21st 17/1

Jan 22nd 28/3

Jan 23 31/12

Jan 24th 31/20 (snowed 6 inches 24th-26th)

Jan 25th 29/22

Jan 26th 34/20

Jan 27th 43/20

Jan 28th 45/25

Jan 29th 29/-10

Jan 30th 23/-1

Jan 31st 29/-3

 

As noted by Daniel Boone, snow was constantly on the ground all winter. I recall hardly going to school that entire month and being able to go sledding basically every day. 

[Carvers Gap]

5 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Rutgers snow chart has me about has happy as I was when Kansas beat Oklahoma. Winning!

Sea level pressure (not shown) is AN in Scandanavia, Alaska, and eastern Siberia. Also helpful BN in mid-latitude China.

Jeff is handing out Halloween candy like he owns stock in Target!

[Carvers Gap]

New seasonal models begin to roll tomorrow. 

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

The cold of January 1977 was unlike anything I've ever seen. I was a kid and thought the 70s and early 80s were normal. We regularly got 4+ inch snows that snowed on top of snow. Schools being out 1 to 2 weeks were common. 

January '77 was so cold here that we only reached 40+ degrees 3 days. One of those was 40 even. The highest temperature of the whole month was 47. 10 days we had below 0 lows. 6 more days had lows between 5 and 0. 20 days the high was 32 or below. 

In December 1976 we had 2.5 inches of snow on December 21st-22nd, 3 inches December 25-26th, 6.5 inches the 29-Jan 1st 1977. That led to a -11 degree low on New Years. We got 1/2 inch on Jan 4th, 4 inches on the 7th, 7 inches on the 10th. 14th and 15th we got 1/2 inch of snow and .35 freezing rain. That led into back to back days of -17 degree lows with highs in the single digits. 

These are the high/lows the last 20 days of Jan 1977 imby. 

Jan 11th 25/-5

Jan 12th 24/-7

Jan 13th 28/2

Jan 14th 35/2

Jan 15th 36/24

Jan 16th 38/5

Jan 17th 8/-17

Jan 18th 19/-17

Jan 19th 16/-7

Jan 20th 23/-2

Jan 21st 17/1

Jan 22nd 28/3

Jan 23 31/12

Jan 24th 31/20 (snowed 6 inches 24th-26th)

Jan 25th 29/22

Jan 26th 34/20

Jan 27th 43/20

Jan 28th 45/25

Jan 29th 29/-10

Jan 30th 23/-1

Jan 31st 29/-3

 

As noted by Daniel Boone, snow was constantly on the ground all winter. I recall hardly going to school that entire month and being able to go sledding basically every day. 

Thanks for posting that John ! I was hoping you'd chime in. I recall, as I'm sure you do too, of Rivers, creaks and ponds being completely frozen and snow covered. Amazing time ! 

[Itryatgolf70]

2 hours ago, John1122 said:

The cold of January 1977 was unlike anything I've ever seen. I was a kid and thought the 70s and early 80s were normal. We regularly got 4+ inch snows that snowed on top of snow. Schools being out 1 to 2 weeks were common. 

January '77 was so cold here that we only reached 40+ degrees 3 days. One of those was 40 even. The highest temperature of the whole month was 47. 10 days we had below 0 lows. 6 more days had lows between 5 and 0. 20 days the high was 32 or below. 

In December 1976 we had 2.5 inches of snow on December 21st-22nd, 3 inches December 25-26th, 6.5 inches the 29-Jan 1st 1977. That led to a -11 degree low on New Years. We got 1/2 inch on Jan 4th, 4 inches on the 7th, 7 inches on the 10th. 14th and 15th we got 1/2 inch of snow and .35 freezing rain. That led into back to back days of -17 degree lows with highs in the single digits. 

These are the high/lows the last 20 days of Jan 1977 imby. 

Jan 11th 25/-5

Jan 12th 24/-7

Jan 13th 28/2

Jan 14th 35/2

Jan 15th 36/24

Jan 16th 38/5

Jan 17th 8/-17

Jan 18th 19/-17

Jan 19th 16/-7

Jan 20th 23/-2

Jan 21st 17/1

Jan 22nd 28/3

Jan 23 31/12

Jan 24th 31/20 (snowed 6 inches 24th-26th)

Jan 25th 29/22

Jan 26th 34/20

Jan 27th 43/20

Jan 28th 45/25

Jan 29th 29/-10

Jan 30th 23/-1

Jan 31st 29/-3

 

As noted by Daniel Boone, snow was constantly on the ground all winter. I recall hardly going to school that entire month and being able to go sledding basically every day. 

How was feb 1977? Guess it warmed up by then? What about 77-78 winter? I was born in 79 but I've heard stories 

[John1122]

1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said:

Thanks for posting that John ! I was hoping you'd chime in. I recall, as I'm sure you do too, of Rivers, creaks and ponds being completely frozen and snow covered. Amazing time ! 

I grew up thinking every winter would be that way, because it seemed like every one was or was close to it. 

[John1122]

24 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

How was feb 1977? Guess it warmed up by then? What about 77-78 winter? I was born in 79 but I've heard stories 

February was frigid. It was February 23rd before we had a 24 hour period where the temperature didn't fall below freezing. 

Feb 1st-11th the lows were -2, 0, 2, 20, 19, 1,0, -1, 0, 14, 17. 

Another cold shot brought low single digits later in the month. 

Snow fell on 9 days of the month but the biggest was just over an inch. It was really dry, as cold weather here often is. 

February was around -6 overall, and that was with a warm warm final week with temps in the 70s. 

January was -16. 

 

[John1122]

These photos are from Nashville in January 1977, from January 1st through the 28th. The cold and snow were state wide. It was more extreme in the normal places, Plateau/Mountains/SWVa but it was -13 to -17 across the whole valley for the month. 

Jan 1st

 

Jan 3rd

 

Jan 6th

 

Jan 9th

 

Jan 11th

 

Jan 19th

 

Jan 22nd

Jan 24th

 

 

Jan 28th

 

 

[John1122]

Some graphics from a winter forecast that popped up on my notifications. 

 

 

 

 

 

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

Some graphics from a winter forecast that popped up on my notifications. 

 

 

 

 

 

Well, as far as Temperature map, looks as a possible outcome, although the EC has a warm bias. So taken verbatim, with deducted warm bias, our area would be in slightly below average. 

As far as precip, looks good. Snowfall map, uh, doesn't make much sense particularly for the Apps, when you compare the precip map and temperature map. 

     

[John1122]

Right now, it looks like October 1963 is about as dry as any October I can find here. There was only a trace of rainfall here, Knoxville and Crossville. 1963-64 was a moderate Nino. 

I'll talk more about that winter later, I'm about to head to Walker Valley for high school playoff football. 

[nrgjeff]

Unfortunately my Halloween post turned out not to be a treat. Pressure chart shows trick-f**k. That's a mild signal. Siberia Alaska HP runs its course. Top of the Pole is already LP - mild signal.

[John1122]

Back to 1963-64. As noted, pretty much valley wide we were looking at less than .10 rainfall in October. 

November saw a return to precip and by late month, it got cold. There was a big post Thanksgiving snow storm that dropped 4 to 7 inches around the area. 

December was frigid. A fast starting Nino. It snowed 10 different days and was extremely cold leading towards Christmas, the biggest was just 3/4ths inch though. Then a major snowstorm hit. There was 6 inches of snow here on the 22nd and 7 more on the 23rd. Fairly widespread 6+ inch event for the region. 

New Years Eve didn't want to get left out, we had 6 inches on Dec 31st. 

December finished -10.5 imby. 

It snowed two more inches on Jan 1st. There was another 4 inch event on January 14th. After that the second half of January was warmish. The month ended up right at normal temp wise. 

February was warm for the first few days, then we had a rain to snow event on the 5th/6th with 5 inches of snow falling. 

Another 4 inch event came on the 19th-21st with long duration snow showers and temps in the 20s. 

We had a 5 inch event February 28th. 

March was mild. But we had nearly four feet of snow for the winter imby. And many of those events were valley wide. 

That's how things changed after that very bone dry October. 

[Itryatgolf70]

12 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Back to 1963-64. As noted, pretty much valley wide we were looking at less than .10 rainfall in October. 

November saw a return to precip and by late month, it got cold. There was a big post Thanksgiving snow storm that dropped 4 to 7 inches around the area. 

December was frigid. A fast starting Nino. It snowed 10 different days and was extremely cold leading towards Christmas, the biggest was just 3/4ths inch though. Then a major snowstorm hit. There was 6 inches of snow here on the 22nd and 7 more on the 23rd. Fairly widespread 6+ inch event for the region. 

New Years Eve didn't want to get left out, we had 6 inches on Dec 31st. 

December finished -10.5 imby. 

It snowed two more inches on Jan 1st. There was another 4 inch event on January 14th. After that the second half of January was warmish. The month ended up right at normal temp wise. 

February was warm for the first few days, then we had a rain to snow event on the 5th/6th with 5 inches of snow falling. 

Another 4 inch event came on the 19th-21st with long duration snow showers and temps in the 20s. 

We had a 5 inch event February 28th. 

March was mild. But we had nearly four feet of snow for the winter imby. And many of those events were valley wide. 

That's how things changed after that very bone dry October. 

You may have already mentioned this, but what analogs closely match for this winter?