2023-24 Winter Speculation Thread

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, fountainguy97 said:

Gfs sees you and raises you.

And this is based on 1981-2010 base, which is cooler than 1991-2020. If there were to be a cold snap similar to this in late OCT, that would be enough to push a BN Oct chance to highly likely for much of the E US. The last Nino Oct that was BN in a good portion of the E US was 2009 fwiw. Other chilly E US Octs included 1987, 1977, 1976, 1965, and 1957.

[GaWx]

 We will have a -QBO in 2023-4.
 
 These Ninos had a -QBO/+PNA for DJF (and NDJFM) averaged out:

1976-7, 1979-80, 1986-7, 1991-2, 2009-10, and 2014-5: six cases

While only these had -QBO/-PNA: 1951-2, 1965-6, 1968-9: 3 cases

 These had a -QBO/neutral PNA:

1953-4, 1958-9, 1972-3: 3 cases

 So, -QBO/+PNA has won out in -QBO Ninos by a 2:1 ratio over -QBO/-PNA. Chances during Nino/-QBO based on actual data since 1950: 50% +PNA, 25% neutral PNA, 25% -PNA 

QBO:

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data

PNA:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

[nrgjeff]

If that QBO is for real, and not a head-fake down, my outlook on winter shifts from warm. All else equal, robust basin-wide Nino is mild. 

The most recent weeks the ABNA has favored mild. However, we had months from spring to mid-summer with the other drivers that kept our region and points north and east mild at times. My going thinking is that the most recent pattern is the new warm one.

A properly falling QBO into mid-winter would shift my thinking, and call for a reversion to that cooler pattern.

[Carvers Gap]

Jeff, do you think the QBO can stay falling through winter?  Looks like we are three months into the (negative side of things)drop and already at -13.58. Guessing we "bottom out" around January-ish as we hit negative during July.  I am just using the 6-7 month rule from when it hits negative.  To me, it starts coming up during Feb????

[Carvers Gap]

14-15 looks like it bottomed out during winter at roughly the same time this one might.  09-10 looks like it paused during winter and then continued down.  Are you seeing evidence of a head-fake?  Just skimming the data sets, it looks like the QBO loses some downard trajectory between months 3-5 once it is negative, and then continues downward.

[nrgjeff]

Yeah @Carvers Gap I like your mid-winter thinking. Bottoms out. The continuation scenario would surprise me. QBO is tough to forecast through. I just watch trends, and the actual wind anomaly up in the strato. Years that fail, the strato easterly anomaly fails to meet the tropo. Cautiously optimistic. or at least fingers crossed, ha.

[John1122]

On 10/7/2023 at 10:38 AM, GaWx said:

And this is based on 1981-2010 base, which is cooler than 1991-2020. If there were to be a cold snap similar to this in late OCT, that would be enough to push a BN Oct chance to highly likely for much of the E US. The last Nino Oct that was BN in a good portion of the E US was 2009 fwiw. Other chilly E US Octs included 1987, 1977, 1976, 1965, and 1957.

 I'm currently at -0.5 for the month to date and the high today was 62 degrees vs a normal of 69, the low this morning was 43 vs a normal of 46 for today. The BN anomalies should deepen as we move further into the month. I do know that November is a key month for my area, as BN November years tend to lead in to far more frequent winter events than AN November years. I very much appreciate your BN Oct/El Nino winter research. I'm going to look and see what winter events happened in the years you've noted. I will say, for my area, I love +PNA/-EPO set ups. The Pacific can really bring the winter extremes here when it cooperates. 

 

[Itryatgolf70]

4 hours ago, John1122 said:

 I'm currently at -0.5 for the month to date and the high today was 62 degrees vs a normal of 69, the low this morning was 43 vs a normal of 46 for today. The BN anomalies should deepen as we move further into the month. I do know that November is a key month for my area, as BN November years tend to lead in to far more frequent winter events than AN November years. I very much appreciate your BN Oct/El Nino winter research. I'm going to look and see what winter events happened in the years you've noted. I will say, for my area, I love +PNA/-EPO set ups. The Pacific can really bring the winter extremes here when it cooperates. 

 

The epo is the king of cold. I will take that over an ao or nao anytime! Occasionally the epo can get negative that it sends a cold front to Cuba. 

[John1122]

Looking at the latest ENSO report, I wonder if the Nino has now peaked? Both the subsurface and surface temperatures across nearly the entire basin have declined for 4 straight weeks. From what I can tell, most models have the Nino declining in Nov/Dec/Jan and slowly falling through winter. But all seem to have missed the slight weakening over the last month. 

3.4  now looks to hang out in the 1.0 to 1.5 range and a moderate Nino is now favored through winter. The last strong Nino was a good winter for cold and snow and the last weak Nino was a torch. So maybe moderate will work out for us.

[John1122]

This isn't bad at all to head into winter. Implies PNA ridging and down stream troughing here with an active STJ.

[Itryatgolf70]

38 minutes ago, John1122 said:

This isn't bad at all to head into winter. Implies PNA ridging and down stream troughing here with an active STJ.

Imo, I think we would want to see the niño become more central based, or modoki style to feel more confident on a colder outcome for winter

[nrgjeff]

Need to bump one of John's thoughts. First mine, October does not have much correlation with winter.

November definitely has a nice significant correlation with winter. It's not perfect, but odds are with November. 

[nrgjeff]

Well it's below 30 mb which is encouraging. Head fakes (2019-2020 fake is not shown) typically die above there. Fingers crossed.

[Carvers Gap]

MRX notes that September/October will likely be in the top two for min precip for that timeframe(Tri-Cities, Chattanooga, Knoxville).  For kicks and giggles.  Three  El Ninos are in this list: 39-40', 58-59' and 63-64'.  So, three of the top 5 driest years at TRI were El Ninos.  Interestingly, the rest are La Nina.  That(so many Ninos in the top 6 for Sept/Oct drought) is surprising.  Given that often La Nina drives dry Falls in E TN, that was an eye opener.  Now, I bet you are wondering what the winter of 63-64' looked like.......

 

[Carvers Gap]

Here is a composite of the three years DJF temps.  Though October doesn't have as much correlation as November, one can wish right?  The following winters' temp maps.  The preceding Octobers' precip maps.   The current drought map...

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

There may be zero correlation there...but just worth kicking around.

[Carvers Gap]

Biggest fly in the ointment...all +PDOs.

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Biggest fly in the ointment...all +PDOs.

Dt's write-up along with some other's regarding the PDO makes some sense. It has weakened considerably lately. Also, the cold pool near Baja will alter typical effects according to Dt.

    I don't care alot for DT personality wise tbh but, overall he is good at what he does as far as a Meteorological perspective goes. 

     Another thing I like is the cold pool off Newfoundland. Look for the likelihood of the 50-50 Low this Winter, imo. Totally opposite of last year in that regard. So, hopefully we can manage a 63-64 type Nino Winter. Of course that was a colder era so, maybe a watered down version.               However, that Winter was a bit late starting but, not what you'd call just back loaded as a major Snowfall hit our area Dec. 22 that dumped a general 6-12" upper Valley area wide. 

 

[Itryatgolf70]

8 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Dt's write-up along with some other's regarding the PDO makes some sense. It has weakened considerably lately. Also, the cold pool near Baja will alter typical effects according to Dt.

    I don't care alot for DT personality wise tbh but, overall he is good at what he does as far as a Meteorological perspective goes. 

     Another thing I like is the cold pool off Newfoundland. Look for the likelihood of the 50-50 Low this Winter, imo. Totally opposite of last year in that regard. So, hopefully we can manage a 63-64 type Nino Winter. Of course that was a colder era so, maybe a watered down version.               However, that Winter was a bit late starting but, not what you'd call just back loaded as a major Snowfall hit our area Dec. 22 that dumped a general 6-12" upper Valley area wide. 

 

LC will have his out around Halloween I think as well. I believe he is good also

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

LC will have his out around Halloween I think as well. I believe he is good also

He is good.  Carver keeps the score with him very well. Look forward to his outlook. 

[Carvers Gap]

From @Terpeastt(link for full discussion):

Too much hand wringing and nina-base-state-ism going on over there. 

We just saw the PDO rise from -3 to near neutral in a span of a few weeks. That rarely happens!

One poster over there dismissed it as “noise”. Normally he is smart and insightful and I respect his content, but the “noise” comment is ridiculous.

-3 to -0.3 is not noise, it’s a pattern change in process. Now I’m not saying we go super, or that we get a 09-10 redux, but this winter will give us tracking chances and the best shot at a KU since 2016. 

 

 

[Itryatgolf70]

19 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

From @Terpeastt(link for full discussion):

Too much hand wringing and nina-base-state-ism going on over there. 

We just saw the PDO rise from -3 to near neutral in a span of a few weeks. That rarely happens!

One poster over there dismissed it as “noise”. Normally he is smart and insightful and I respect his content, but the “noise” comment is ridiculous.

-3 to -0.3 is not noise, it’s a pattern change in process. Now I’m not saying we go super, or that we get a 09-10 redux, but this winter will give us tracking chances and the best shot at a KU since 2016. 

 

 

There are alot of good forecasters over there in the other forums. We go through this every fall. Some that want a cold winter and some that don't. Each winter is different than previous winters and none really act the same way as other winters. That's the reality of it. Once the seasonal models come out in another week, they will be more accurate than the previous months so we will have a better idea what will or could happen. 

[Carvers Gap]

20 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

There are alot of good forecasters over there in the other forums. We go through this every fall. Some that want a cold winter and some that don't. Each winter is different than previous winters and none really act the same way as other winters. That's the reality of it. Once the seasonal models come out in another week, they will be more accurate than the previous months so we will have a better idea what will or could happen. 

Not getting into any of that.  Just sharing PDO data which is why I highlighted it.  I just normally don't like to take comments out of context.  The PDO data is what is interesting. 

[Itryatgolf70]

6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Not getting into any of that.  Just sharing PDO data which is why I highlighted it.  I just normally don't like to take comments out of context.  The PDO data is what is interesting. 

I will say this winter has more moving parts compared to previous winters in trying to get even a close match. Imo of course

[Daniel Boone]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

Not getting into any of that.  Just sharing PDO data which is why I highlighted it.  I just normally don't like to take comments out of context.  The PDO data is what is interesting.

Yeah. Been reading and discussing in the main forum some. Some are still hammering the -PDO as the main Driver this Winter. I just don't see nor get that. It's basically neutral now. 

     However, as far as the Winter outcome, still uncertainty looms large. Just reading Terps post touting the crappy '94-95 Winter as a decent Analogue he is using. There are some indexes that closely match it at this juncture. I'm definitely rooting against such outcome but, can't deny the possibility is there. 

    No Winter's are carbon copies so, even if that general 500mb pattern set up, it wouldn't be exact and it doesn't take alot to go from getting barely missed or getting slammed ; 40 and rain to 30 and snow. A matter of just a few miles sometimes. 

      

[Carvers Gap]

5 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

I will say this winter has more moving parts compared to previous winters in trying to get even a close match. Imo of course

Yeah, I think they all are fairly complex even at short range.  Seasonal forecasting at range is generally a crap shoot.  Generally getting the long wave pattern correct by using ENSO state has some rigor, but still....Even during projected warm winters, cold patterns can hit and hold.  I  guess it is part of what makes this hobby fun and a bit maddening.

[Itryatgolf70]

1 minute ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah. Been reading and discussing in the main forum some. Some are still hammering the -PDO as the main Driver this Winter. I just don't see nor get that. It's basically neutral now. 

     However, as far as the Winter outcome, still uncertainty looms large. Just reading Terps post touting the crappy '94-95 Winter as a decent Analogue he is using. There are some indexes that closely match it at this juncture. I'm definitely rooting against such outcome but, can't deny the possibility is there. 

    No Winter's are carbon copies so, even if that general 500mb pattern set up, it wouldn't be exact and it doesn't take alot to go from getting barely missed or getting slammed ; 40 and rain to 30 and snow. A matter of just a few miles sometimes. 

      

Daniel, I believe it will come down alot to high latitudes and nw of Hawaii. Euro seasonal will be interesting in a week

[Carvers Gap]

7 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah. Been reading and discussing in the main forum some. Some are still hammering the -PDO as the main Driver this Winter. I just don't see nor get that. It's basically neutral now. 

     However, as far as the Winter outcome, still uncertainty looms large. Just reading Terps post touting the crappy '94-95 Winter as a decent Analogue he is using. There are some indexes that closely match it at this juncture. I'm definitely rooting against such outcome but, can't deny the possibility is there. 

    No Winter's are carbon copies so, even if that general 500mb pattern set up, it wouldn't be exact and it doesn't take alot to go from getting barely missed or getting slammed ; 40 and rain to 30 and snow. A matter of just a few miles sometimes. 

      

Boone, how are they getting the most recent PDO numbers?  It is almost like a daily index.  I can only find data which is released at the end of each month.  Is it pay data or government access data?

Yep, those 1990s Nino analogs are nasty for the most part!!!!  My main concern is the dry wx which is is plaguing the region.  But....those dry Sept/Oc patterns often turned cold for winter - if we can actually say that is a true correlation. 

I do like the storm tracks which are showing up on the latest GFS runs.  As we get closer to November, those tracks do have some correlation - lots of coastals modeled.  No idea if they will verify.

[GaWx]

49 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Boone, how are they getting the most recent PDO numbers?  It is almost like a daily index.  I can only find data which is released at the end of each month.  Is it pay data or government access data?

Yep, those 1990s Nino analogs are nasty for the most part!!!!  My main concern is the dry wx which is is plaguing the region.  But....those dry Sept/Oc patterns often turned cold for winter - if we can actually say that is a true correlation. 

I do like the storm tracks which are showing up on the latest GFS runs.  As we get closer to November, those tracks do have some correlation - lots of coastals modeled.  No idea if they will verify.

 It was -.70 yesterday per below though the NOAA PDO runs more negative and is thus likely ~-1.25:

[Itryatgolf70]

46 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 It was -.70 yesterday per below though the NOAA PDO runs more negative and is thus likely ~-1.25:

Where do you get those charts so we can view?