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Central PA Summer 2023


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53 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I believe there are some 60-70" totals in PA as well.   But that was hearsay.  Pretty sure there are some 50" totals though.  And that 15-17" across the southern tier is for the year not since June 1.   Many here are well under 10" since June 1. 

MJS reporting for duty.  The highest YTD totals on Cocorahs are 48.66" at Hidden Valley in Somerset County and then a couple in the 42-47" range in Northampton Co.  When looking at just the people who report consistently, the lowest seems to be a guy near New Oxford with 15.99" and then a few right around 20" in York and Adams Counties.  Here is the estimated observed YTD precip in map form, which lines up pretty well with where we know the most/least amounts have been.

image.thumb.png.a5835bd5b918d3e91db2d4890872ab55.png

 

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15 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

MJS reporting for duty.  The highest YTD totals on Cocorahs are 48.66" at Hidden Valley in Somerset County and then a couple in the 42-47" range in Northampton Co.  When looking at just the people who report consistently, the lowest seems to be a guy near New Oxford with 15.99" and then a few right around 20" in York and Adams Counties.  Here is the estimated observed YTD precip in map form, which lines up pretty well with where we know the most/least amounts have been.

image.thumb.png.a5835bd5b918d3e91db2d4890872ab55.png

 

For my area this is pretty darn close - adding up my numbers I'm at 26.24", and I'm just inside the > 25" shading. 

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8 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

MJS reporting for duty.  The highest YTD totals on Cocorahs are 48.66" at Hidden Valley in Somerset County and then a couple in the 42-47" range in Northampton Co.  When looking at just the people who report consistently, the lowest seems to be a guy near New Oxford with 15.99" and then a few right around 20" in York and Adams Counties.  Here is the estimated observed YTD precip in map form, which lines up pretty well with where we know the most/least amounts have been.

image.thumb.png.a5835bd5b918d3e91db2d4890872ab55.png

 

Thanks, I thought the 60-70 was too high.  The 50" I mentioned are not Cocorahs stations but seeing other people between 45-50" makes me think some do probably have 50+.  Those estimated maps drive me nuts sometimes though.  HGR has to be considered a fairly reliable station since it is NWS supported and they are at 16.6" for the year so far yet if I am seeing that map right it is suggestive that no one in the area would be below 20". 

image.png.76b12f95cd2829d53abca5c5e8d5b452.png

 

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22 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

MJS reporting for duty.  The highest YTD totals on Cocorahs are 48.66" at Hidden Valley in Somerset County and then a couple in the 42-47" range in Northampton Co.  When looking at just the people who report consistently, the lowest seems to be a guy near New Oxford with 15.99" and then a few right around 20" in York and Adams Counties.  Here is the estimated observed YTD precip in map form, which lines up pretty well with where we know the most/least amounts have been.

image.thumb.png.a5835bd5b918d3e91db2d4890872ab55.png

 

PS, I would have taken you for a Mac user. 

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I also told him that right now isn't the best time to be within 100 miles of Philadelphia because Matt Olson is in town and it'd be real embarrassing for an escaped murderer wanted in two countries to be taken out by a falling baseball.

Was that you who ran out onto the field last night, Trainer?

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Is it just me or is the Ariel shot of 30 men decked out in full military attire just to get a picture of the 5 foot Brazilian dude who made them look like fools and idiots for the past two weeks scream absolute weakness? I laughed because the onion couldn't come up with a better shot or headline. No where in this nation does incompetence get a photo shoot online but here.

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Looking further at HGR as to anomalous totals here are the 10 driest years in recorded history for HGR or the HGR area.   If you take the current total of 16.6 and divide it by 254 (number of days already passed) you get an average of .065" per day over the year so far.  Taking the .065 x 111 days left and add that total to the current total, you would end up 23.82" for the year or the second driest year since 1899.  Only one year of the top 10 years, 2001, is anywhere near these records in recent times.  The next most recent year in the top 10 is 1965.   It is not as simple as this, but the rest of this year features normally drier months, so it is a legit discussion point.    Using HGR because MDT totals do not reflect the greater level of drought along the southern tier. 

Current Hagerstown totals sorted by lowest to highest (Top 10)

image.png.c0c3f72e9c7b063caa8a7156aa080be7.png

 

 

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I believe there are some 60-70" totals in PA as well.   But that was hearsay.  Pretty sure there are some 50" totals though.  And that 15-17" across the southern tier is for the year not since June 1.   Many here are well under 10" since June 1. 
Oh I know it's for the year. And I for one would love to know the biggest difference for rainfall for the year in Pennsylvania for all reporting sites with a 100 year record broken out by tropical influence or no tropical influence.

I know in my living memory there hasn't been anything that even sniffed this year

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MJS reporting for duty.  The highest YTD totals on Cocorahs are 48.66" at Hidden Valley in Somerset County and then a couple in the 42-47" range in Northampton Co.  When looking at just the people who report consistently, the lowest seems to be a guy near New Oxford with 15.99" and then a few right around 20" in York and Adams Counties.  Here is the estimated observed YTD precip in map form, which lines up pretty well with where we know the most/least amounts have been.
image.thumb.png.a5835bd5b918d3e91db2d4890872ab55.png
 
What site do you get those off of. I think the same I do, just want to be sure

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57 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Thanks, I thought the 60-70 was too high.  The 50" I mentioned are not Cocorahs stations but seeing other people between 45-50" makes me think some do probably have 50+.  Those estimated maps drive me nuts sometimes though.  HGR has to be considered a fairly reliable station since it is NWS supported and they are at 16.6" for the year so far yet if I am seeing that map right it is suggestive that no one in the area would be below 20". 

image.png.76b12f95cd2829d53abca5c5e8d5b452.png

 

I feel like these radar estimates usually come in high, especially over long periods. Pittsburgh Airport has had 24.83" and nowhere in western Pennsylvania is shown below 25 inches. Around the airport, it shows 30-35" with an area of 25-30" just east of there over the city and river valleys. Morgantown is at 26.12", but everywhere in Monongalia County is shown in 30-35" except a small area of 25-30" well west of there and 35-40" in the ridges. It's been a fairly dry year in most of western Pennsylvania too, especially compared to recent years. No drought, but it certainly hasn't been wet.

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2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

For my area this is pretty darn close - adding up my numbers I'm at 26.24", and I'm just inside the > 25" shading. 

 

2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

Thanks, I thought the 60-70 was too high.  The 50" I mentioned are not Cocorahs stations but seeing other people between 45-50" makes me think some do probably have 50+.  Those estimated maps drive me nuts sometimes though.  HGR has to be considered a fairly reliable station since it is NWS supported and they are at 16.6" for the year so far yet if I am seeing that map right it is suggestive that no one in the area would be below 20". 

image.png.76b12f95cd2829d53abca5c5e8d5b452.png

 

 

1 hour ago, Jns2183 said:

What site do you get those off of. I think the same I do, just want to be sure

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I thought the map was pretty accurate as well, or at least as accurate as these sorts of things can be.  Obviously it's smoothed out so you're going to have irregularities, and it will miss some of the smaller geographic outliers but overall, pretty decent.  I sit at 23.81" for the year.  This is just one of many sources I use but here is the site and a better version of the graphic......I'll move over to the Fall thread now, toodles....

AHPS Precipitation Analysis (weather.gov)

full.php?day=13&month=09&year=2023&time_type=recent&time_frame=year2date&recent_type=today&product=observed&units=eng&domain=current&geo_width=978393.9620499955&geo_height=611496.226281248&xmin=-81.94702224999752&ymin=39.044786325926665&xmax=-73.15795974999985&ymax=43.18114731987088&layers={%22precip_layer%22:%220.75%22,%22rfc_layer%22:%22-1%22,%22state_layer%22:%22-1%22,%22hsa_layer%22:%22-1%22,%22county_layer%22:0.75}

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1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

 

 

I thought the map was pretty accurate as well, or at least as accurate as these sorts of things can be.  Obviously it's smoothed out so you're going to have irregularities, and it will miss some of the smaller geographic outliers but overall, pretty decent.  I sit at 23.81" for the year.  This is just one of many sources I use but here is the site and a better version of the graphic......I'll move over to the Fall thread now, toodles....

AHPS Precipitation Analysis (weather.gov)

full.php?day=13&month=09&year=2023&time_type=recent&time_frame=year2date&recent_type=today&product=observed&units=eng&domain=current&geo_width=978393.9620499955&geo_height=611496.226281248&xmin=-81.94702224999752&ymin=39.044786325926665&xmax=-73.15795974999985&ymax=43.18114731987088&layers={%22precip_layer%22:%220.75%22,%22rfc_layer%22:%22-1%22,%22state_layer%22:%22-1%22,%22hsa_layer%22:%22-1%22,%22county_layer%22:0.75}

I think sometimes it is a case of people looking mostly in their back yards.  In my case, the map is flawed to the tune of about 15-30% in southern Franklin and Northern Washington County, MD.    Maybe a case of lessening accuracy in the drier areas.   The NWS supported Chambersburg station is at 17.38" for the year while that map puts them in or close to 25-30".   Hard to ascertain if it is suggesting 20-25 or 25-30.  

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19 hours ago, Jns2183 said:

Is it just me or is the Ariel shot of 30 men decked out in full military attire just to get a picture of the 5 foot Brazilian dude who made them look like fools and idiots for the past two weeks scream absolute weakness? I laughed because the onion couldn't come up with a better shot or headline. No where in this nation does incompetence get a photo shoot online but here.

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i disagree. That area, there is a lot of hiding spots. Did you see pictures of where the guy was laying in the woods next to a log? Yes, he was on the loose for 2 weeks, but they had him contained. That guy wanted out of there, but the constant pressure it wasn't happening. The guy is a murderer. through this, no civilian or law enforcement injuries.   

edit-i'm not even 100% certain those in the picture are state troopers. I think these are spec-ops guys.

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