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Global Average Temperature 2023


bdgwx
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On 10/11/2023 at 3:27 PM, bdgwx said:

Berkeley Earth issued their September report this morning.

One thing that stood out to me is that according to CMIP6 a record of this magnitude even in a warming world only has a 1-in-10000 chance of occurrence. Two hypothesis are presented to explain it. 1) The reduction in aerosols and 2) The Hunga-Tonga eruption.

https://berkeleyearth.org/september-2023-temperature-update/

50SOgCX.png

 

Screenshot 2023-10-13 at 09-37-19 Gareth S Jones on X.png

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20 hours ago, bluewave said:

 

 

Curious about the difference between the antarctic “heat wave” wrt the rest of the planet. In other words removing that weird winter they had down there.

Probably not a lot. So much of this energy surplus has to be coming from that oceanic sst spike everywhere, all seas in every direction all latitudes north and south atmosphere included. Water holds more energy than air etc. etc..

The fact that the whole planet just up and started glowing all at once, from the Antarctic to the sea south of the Aluetians to the north Atlantic to the Indian Ocean …all of it… strikes me as a real phenomenon that needs to be investigated. That really needs to be understood possibly as an imperative. It’s just the “fuzzy logic” of warming over the south polar region happening in tandem with all these other regions that don’t directly effect one another.  Really is tremendous fertility for science-fiction thinking … But strikes me as at a minimum, there might be something that interconnects the whole planet, lesser known geophysics - perhaps in the synergistic space - that can be triggered

 

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8 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Curious about the difference between the antarctic “heat wave” wrt the rest of the planet. Another words removing that weird winter they had down there.

Probably not a lot. So much of this energy surplus has to be coming from that oceanic sst spike everywhere, all seas in every direction all latitudes north and south atmosphere included. Water holds more energy than air etc. etc..

The fact that the whole planet just up and started glowing all at once, from the Antarctic to the sea south of the Aluetians to the north Atlantic to the Indian Ocean …all of it… strikes me as a real phenomenon that needs to be investigated. That really needs to be understood possibly as an imperative. It’s just the “fuzzy logic” of warming over the south polar region happening in tandem with all these other regions that don’t directly effect one another.  Really is tremendous fertility for science-fiction thinking … But strikes me as at a minimum, there might be something that interconnects the whole planet, lesser known geophysics - perhaps in the synergistic space - that can be triggered

 

By far the biggest change between this year and last year is enso. Per chart below, the timing of the GISS warming also matches enso with a slight lag. As I posted upthread this nino packs an extra punch due to the strong far E Pac warming.

ensogiss.PNG

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Big mechanism for warming global temps during an el nino is increased water vapor in atmosphere primarily from tropical oceans. Note that this added water swamps water from HT volcano as stratosphere is only 1% of atmospheric water. Any HT water in troposphere is long gone as lifetime is only a couple of weeks at best.

 

Screenshot 2023-11-09 at 04-57-53 Jeff Berardelli on X.png

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12 hours ago, chubbs said:

Big mechanism for warming global temps during an el nino is increased water vapor in atmosphere primarily from tropical oceans. Note that this added water swamps water from HT volcano as stratosphere is only 1% of atmospheric water. Any HT water in troposphere is long gone as lifetime is only a couple of weeks at best.

 

Screenshot 2023-11-09 at 04-57-53 Jeff Berardelli on X.png

Makes sense, but what limits this?  Is there an offsetting mechanism or could we be headed towards a much higher atmospheric moisture level? 

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43 minutes ago, etudiant said:

Makes sense, but what limits this?  Is there an offsetting mechanism or could we be headed towards a much higher atmospheric moisture level? 

Not much. Saturation vapor pressure increases non-linearly with temperature. So do vapor pressure deficits. Intensifying drought and floods.

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40 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, Euro forecasting a new record also.

 

 

There are model differences, with GFS forecasting a higher peak relative to the September max vs the euro. For another viewpoint here is year-to-date in one re-analysis product. We'll see how high we get and for how long.

d1-gfs-gta-daily-2023-11-09.gif

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13 hours ago, csnavywx said:

Not much. Saturation vapor pressure increases non-linearly with temperature. So do vapor pressure deficits. Intensifying drought and floods.

Thank you, a somewhat disquieting insight.

It suggests we should get set for 'interesting' weather. The Chinese had a saying about 'interesting times', iirc.

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2 hours ago, etudiant said:

Thank you, a somewhat disquieting insight.

It suggests we should get set for 'interesting' weather. The Chinese had a saying about 'interesting times', iirc.

To be 100% fair, we can hope for a reversal in the cloud cover trend -- that would do it in principle. Specifically low-mid level clouds. (High clouds increasing wouldn't be a good thing.) Perhaps there's some unknown transient climate response for that. However, we've been going the wrong way for some time on that particular trend.

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10 hours ago, chubbs said:

There are model differences, with GFS forecasting a higher peak relative to the September max vs the euro. For another viewpoint here is year-to-date in one re-analysis product. We'll see how high we get and for how long.

d1-gfs-gta-daily-2023-11-09.gif

Record warmth in the higher latitudes will be the culprit this time. 

 

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7 hours ago, csnavywx said:

To be 100% fair, we can hope for a reversal in the cloud cover trend -- that would do it in principle. Specifically low-mid level clouds. (High clouds increasing wouldn't be a good thing.) Perhaps there's some unknown transient climate response for that. However, we've been going the wrong way for some time on that particular trend.

If research by Jessica Tierney et al., is accurate, cloud feedbacks associated with rising greenhouse gas concentrations will amplify the warming. She observed:

In addition, while the PETM-DA shows that the biggest changes in low cloud cover occur over the subtropical (upwelling zone) regions, clouds also decreased by 10 to 15% over the Southern Ocean and the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, and likely contributed to the elevated warming. A strong shortwave cloud feedback is a feature of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulations that was previously shown to contribute to mid- to high-latitude warming, as both cloud cover and opacity decline nonlinearly with increasing CO2.

https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2205326119

 

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Hansen's monthly email which was signed off on by some big names came out yesterday. They do not mince words.

https://mailchi.mp/caa/how-we-know-that-global-warming-is-accelerating-and-that-the-goal-of-the-paris-agreement-is-dead

Hansen et al. say "Global warming in the pipeline and emissions in the pipeline assure that the goal of the Paris Agreement – to keep global warming well below 2°C – is already dead, if policy is constrained only to emission reductions plus uncertain and unproven CO2 removal methods."

Damn...not only did they say 1.5 C is in the rearview mirror, but they're now saying 2.0 C is in the rearview mirror as well.

@TheClimateChanger Your insistence that 2.0 C is already baked in and will occur in the 2030s is looking more and more plausible.

Hansen et al. say "Global warming of 2°C will be reached by the late 2030s, i.e., within about 15 years."

CJmPum5.png

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On 11/10/2023 at 6:13 PM, donsutherland1 said:

If research by Jessica Tierney et al., is accurate, cloud feedbacks associated with rising greenhouse gas concentrations will amplify the warming. She observed:

In addition, while the PETM-DA shows that the biggest changes in low cloud cover occur over the subtropical (upwelling zone) regions, clouds also decreased by 10 to 15% over the Southern Ocean and the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, and likely contributed to the elevated warming. A strong shortwave cloud feedback is a feature of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulations that was previously shown to contribute to mid- to high-latitude warming, as both cloud cover and opacity decline nonlinearly with increasing CO2.

https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2205326119

 

Thanks for that. Yeah, the paleoclimate record suggests most of the risk is loaded into the right tail and the PDF of ECS isn't static either, with a minimum ECS value likely where most interglacials (including this one during preindustrial times) end up.

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On 11/11/2023 at 11:59 AM, bdgwx said:

Hansen's monthly email which was signed off on by some big names came out yesterday. They do not mince words.

https://mailchi.mp/caa/how-we-know-that-global-warming-is-accelerating-and-that-the-goal-of-the-paris-agreement-is-dead

Hansen et al. say "Global warming in the pipeline and emissions in the pipeline assure that the goal of the Paris Agreement – to keep global warming well below 2°C – is already dead, if policy is constrained only to emission reductions plus uncertain and unproven CO2 removal methods."

Damn...not only did they say 1.5 C is in the rearview mirror, but they're now saying 2.0 C is in the rearview mirror as well.

@TheClimateChanger Your insistence that 2.0 C is already baked in and will occur in the 2030s is looking more and more plausible.

Hansen et al. say "Global warming of 2°C will be reached by the late 2030s, i.e., within about 15 years."

CJmPum5.png

The money chart from the email below. The blue 12-month mean effectively turns the sun up by over 1% in one decade. Given the suns stability that has to be a rare event in the earth's history. Email argues that this is mainly clouds. Hard to tell how much natural variability contributed. We had a hiatus decade, perhaps we are in a surge decade and are near a reversal; or, maybe we flipped a climate switch and there is no turning back. Guessing we will find out quickly as clouds are a fast feedback and natural variability in one direction beyond a decade time scale becomes increasingly unlikely.

absorbed solar.png

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11 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

Paul Roundy's take on the global spike needs to be here. The sky isn't falling. 

Please tell us more. The current nino gives us an opportunity to learn. Its going to take a while to unpack all the competing forces. However, the size of this nino spike  is disconcerting because the same factors that amplify enso, water vapor and cloud feedbacks,  also amplify greenhouse gases.  We'll see what the other side of this nino looks like. Doubt we will return to pre-nino global temperatures though. Like 1997 and 2015, this wave has probably taken us into a new stadium.

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12 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

Paul Roundy's take on the global spike needs to be here. The sky isn't falling. 

Humans are an extremely adaptable species. So even if the most severe climate scenarios play out, we will find a way to survive. But other species may not be as fortunate. That being said, most of the carbon emissions are now occurring in places like China. The US has actually slightly decreased emissions. Outside of technological innovations on our part, we don’t have any say in how other countries like China manage their emissions. So while our economies are still depended too on fossil fuels, we need to find innovations to adapt to a warming climate. It’s probably going to be a slow energy transition and my guess is that we are probably on track for at least +2C to +3C of warming since the industrial revolution. And possibly beyond that if we don’t start moving faster to find a technologies to transition between 2030 and 2050.

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