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Global Average Temperature 2023


bdgwx
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15 hours ago, bdgwx said:

And here is the evolution of my predictions for the annual mean GISTEMP value as posted in this thread.

06/08: 1.05 ± 0.09

06/16: 1.06 ± 0.08

07/13: 1.062 ± 0.07

07/19: 1.060 ± 0.07

08/14: 1.075 ± 0.06 

08/25: 1.083 ± 0.05 

09/05: 1.099 ± 0.05 

The steadily increasing trend in your model indicates you may be right about the current model forecast underestimating the mean. Not surprising that the model has erred low. We've never had a year separate from the others in summer like this one, so hard to forecast this year from past behavior. If the current separation vs existing records holds through the rest of the year, then your model will be low. We'll see.

 

oisst2.1_world2_sst_day.jpeg

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13 hours ago, bdgwx said:

Another month and another record in ERSST.

z2GGrZk.png

A large portion of the Atlantic Basin had their warmest ERSST August SSTs on record helping to boost the global SST record even higher.

 

 

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August was the 9th warmest on record nationwide, with meteorological summer coming in 15th place. While the final ranking is not terribly impressive, it's important to note that only three summers of the 20th century were warmer than this summer nationally (1934, 1936 & 1988).

image.thumb.png.c0f8b5cdc262b93c91e0c2be12b58a81.png

 

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Digging a little deeper into the contiguous U.S. data, Louisiana had its hottest summer on record. Texas and Florida both had their 2nd hottest summers on record. The hottest summer on record in Texas was 2011 and the hottest summer on record in Florida was 1998. New Mexico had its third hottest summer on record, behind only 2011 and 2020. Only 5 states were cooler than the 20th century mean (Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, West Virginia and Tennessee).

image.thumb.png.ce0f1696cb7fa68444122f8a0a9fdfec.png

 

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6 hours ago, csnavywx said:

Sep. already stacking some nuclear daily prints on moyhu. Prob going to end up above Aug at this point. Still 5 or 6 months of prints until ENSO peak.

Yes, CFS anomalies holding near high for year past 5 days. Only brief periods in Feb 2016 and feb 2020 were higher than 2023 spikes. Late winter is typically when the highest anomalies occur. The late winter spikes this year are going to come off a much higher base.

d1-gfs-gta-daily-2023-09-14.gif

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9 hours ago, csnavywx said:

Sep. already stacking some nuclear daily prints on moyhu. Prob going to end up above Aug at this point. Still 5 or 6 months of prints until ENSO peak.

I also monitor the daily JRA55 values. So far the implied value for GISTEMP coming from JRA is 1.36 C which is close to the record of 1.37 C set in 2016/02. JRA correlates with GISTEMP at R^2 = 0.87 so it is a pretty good predictor. As I've said before it is getting harder and harder to dismiss the accelerated warming hypothesis.

Ejz6SGZ.png

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On 9/7/2023 at 6:24 PM, Nickysixes said:

Average temps are warmer nowadays because there are THOUSANDS  more reporting stations than years ago. They don't like to talk about that though and figure the average Joe can't comprehend such

How exactly does a denser number of reporting stations make it warmer? 

It's odd that any Joe would "comprehend" more reporting stations as causing higher readings, when that statement does zero refutation to the idea that more reporting stations could also make colder - if/when and fairly going by that same [faux] logic.

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8 hours ago, bdgwx said:

I also monitor the daily JRA55 values. So far the implied value for GISTEMP coming from JRA is 1.36 C which is close to the record of 1.37 C set in 2016/02. JRA correlates with GISTEMP at R^2 = 0.87 so it is a pretty good predictor. As I've said before it is getting harder and harder to dismiss the accelerated warming hypothesis.

Ejz6SGZ.png

Gonna be wild if we end up breaking Feb '16 with a *September* reading, considering the current Sep. record is about 0.30 below that level.

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How exactly does a denser number of reporting stations make it warmer? 
It's odd that any Joe would "comprehend" more reporting stations as causing higher readings, when that statement does zero refutation to the idea that more reporting stations could also make colder - if/when and fairly going by that same [faux] logic.
No, they just take the cumulative value across the stations. Everyone knows average = sum. /s

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk


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On 9/15/2023 at 8:34 PM, drstuess said:

No, they just take the cumulative value across the stations. Everyone knows average = sum.

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk
 

So, if you were to hand-draw a CONUS surface temperature chart with isotherms, you're telling me that the temperature would go *up* the more stations I have? News to me.

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So, if you were to hand-draw a CONUS surface temperature chart with isotherms, you're telling me that the temperature would go *up* the more stations I have? News to me.
I was being sarcastic regarding post, hence the "average=sum". Adding /s si you don't lump me in with the poster I was quoting.

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On 9/15/2023 at 10:12 AM, bdgwx said:

I also monitor the daily JRA55 values. So far the implied value for GISTEMP coming from JRA is 1.36 C which is close to the record of 1.37 C set in 2016/02. JRA correlates with GISTEMP at R^2 = 0.87 so it is a pretty good predictor. As I've said before it is getting harder and harder to dismiss the accelerated warming hypothesis.

Ejz6SGZ.png

Pretty impressive warming this year as each month shows no signs of letting up yet. 
 

 

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