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The Ides of March end of Winter 2023


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6 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

If this were 75-100 miles further south it would be very very good. Typically not a lot to ask for 100+ out but we all know the drill this year:

image.png.f038794efa1052526123d6f6a5a5b48d.png

But even if we can get that 100 mile jog S, we'd need to hold it there till Friday as you know it ticks N inside 24. 

Furthermore the progressive flow would create a scraper to the E while us westers smoke cirrus and flip the Jersey Birds the bird.  Loop the 500's and you'll see what i'm saying.  Trough axis keeps it scootin well east for most east coasters.  

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2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

But even if we can get that 100 mile jog S, we'd need to hold it there till Friday as you know it ticks N inside 24. 

Furthermore the progressive flow would create a scraper to the E while us westers smoke cirrus and flip the Jersey Birds the bird.  Loop the 500's and you'll see what i'm saying.  Trough axis keeps it scootin well east for most east coasters.  

I think you have great analysis, Nut but I have to disagree on calling this one progressive.  Verbatim the GFS has the coastal low looping over and around Long Island for 18+ hours.  I wouldn’t label that track progressive, the block is slowing it down it’s just too far north.

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Honestly, having the EC side with snow right now is probably a bad sign. Especially the last 1-2 months.  Not sure why other than to say we are in a pattern that it does not excel. 

Honestly, what model can be trusted right now? Add in a changing pattern and it's March and surprises are sure to happen. 

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37 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

If this were 75-100 miles further south it would be very very good. Typically not a lot to ask for 100+ out but we all know the drill this year:

image.png.f038794efa1052526123d6f6a5a5b48d.png

Now that I’ve had some lunch, The 12z GEFS has one of the looks good for this weekend.

Check out a few hours prior to what you posted. Some of the individual members get the coastal going earlier & further south.

Also, as you said later, the GEFS than stalls the low off of the NJ coast and it exits east thanks to the blocking.

Long way to go, but the GEFS took a positive step for CTP this weekend.

0D9B7485-A48F-4BBB-B9B0-1A57AC317D65.png

B06BB785-9B47-4222-9023-239C71A934B0.png

8FDBE9D4-6B41-42EC-91FC-BD4030FCEE17.png

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2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Now that I’ve had some lunch, The 12z GEFS has one of the looks good for this weekend.

Check out a few hours prior to what you posted. Some of the individual members get the coastal going earlier & further south.

Also, as you said later, the GEFS than stalls the low off of the NJ coast and it exits east thanks to the blocking.

Long way to go, but the GEFS took a positive step for CTP this weekend.

 

 

 

The stalling low has been shown on and off by a lot of models over the last few days.  Talk about a possible bonanza win.    Other than joking, how often has the word tuck been said this year?   This truly is one of those situations where we are in the game. 

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@Mount Joy Snowman - Mammoth is under a State of Emergency - they have no where to go with the snow and perhaps the biggest storm of the winter inbound in 72 hours. Current snow depth is 224" - also, they can't get the ski lifts going as the snow depth is now over the chairs near the loading stations. Several more roof collapses reported around town this morning. And the next storm will be warmer with much wetter/heavier snowfall which will further exasperate the situation. 

 

The town is 8000' in elevation - it's not like they're not used to dealing with a lot of snow. But this is unprecedented territory. There's a sign posted coming into town "Pray For Us...We Can't Take Any More Snow". :( 

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35 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

I think you have great analysis, Nut but I have to disagree on calling this one progressive.  Verbatim the GFS has the coastal low looping over and around Long Island for 18+ hours.  I wouldn’t label that track progressive, the block is slowing it down it’s just too far north.

Fair point.  If I said progressive until it hits the coast, then bombs notably east and north, is that better :lol:?  Once it left our area, I didnt really look at later panels as it doesnt help mby.

Let me restate that the trough axis is of a more progressive nature for our latitude, even though the 500 is closed off, and the storm does retrograde well ENE of us, for our hood its worth little to nothing for ALL of our group.   

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10 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

@Mount Joy Snowman - Mammoth is under a State of Emergency - they have no where to go with the snow and perhaps the biggest storm of the winter inbound in 72 hours. Current snow depth is 224" - also, they can't get the ski lifts going as the snow depth is now over the chairs near the loading stations. Several more roof collapses reported around town this morning. And the next storm will be warmer with much wetter/heavier snowfall which will further exasperate the situation. 

 

The town is 8000' in elevation - it's not like they're not used to dealing with a lot of snow. But this is unprecedented territory. There's a sign posted coming into town "Pray For Us...We Can't Take Any More Snow". :( 

Just absolutely wild what is happening out there.  Looking through their historical records, it seems the 2010-11 season was their snowiest on record with 669".  I think they break that this year, perhaps by a wide margin.  555" and counting..... 

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