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Severe potential 2/26

METALSTORM

By METALSTORM,
in Central/Western States

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Quincy

Quincy

Posted
Posted

NAM 12km and high res look very marginal with poor moisture return. Euro and GFS are more aggressive with dew points approaching 60 in western Oklahoma at 00z Monday. 

I’m not sold yet, especially with antecedent cold, dry air in place. Average T/Td in the ENH area this morning are 18/5.

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Cheeznado

Cheeznado

Posted
Posted

Moisture is the big issue, models still differ on how much will make it how far north. Dynamics off the charts with ludicrously high SRH values, so a raging squall line is very likely at the very least. Another bugaboo for chasers are the insane storm motions, 60-70 mph. If I were local it would be worth a shot but there will be much better situations down the road.

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Quincy

Quincy

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

Moisture is the big issue, models still differ on how much will make it how far north. Dynamics off the charts with ludicrously high SRH values, so a raging squall line is very likely at the very least. Another bugaboo for chasers are the insane storm motions, 60-70 mph. If I were local it would be worth a shot but there will be much better situations down the road.

I’m in Oklahoma and I’m not even sure I’m going out. There may be a small window near the Caprock around sunset, but storm motions will be fast. 

Of course there’s always the potential for fluky, brief tornado farther north, but models show very little MLCAPE north of I-40. Where they do some marginal instability (generally less than 500 J/kg), it seems like a capping is an issue.

Wind fields may be near climatological records, so it won’t take much. Even if we’re just talking QLCS circulations. 

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nwohweather

nwohweather

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Cheeznado said:

Moisture is the big issue, models still differ on how much will make it how far north. Dynamics off the charts with ludicrously high SRH values, so a raging squall line is very likely at the very least. Another bugaboo for chasers are the insane storm motions, 60-70 mph. If I were local it would be worth a shot but there will be much better situations down the road.

That’s what I thought, like I’m pretty sure an oil diffuser giving off steam would produce a tornado in that environment :lol:

Really though there’s that potential for a violent tornado in Oklahoma tomorrow before everything goes linear

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METALSTORM

METALSTORM

Posted
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Posted
4 hours ago, Cheeznado said:

Moisture is the big issue, models still differ on how much will make it how far north. Dynamics off the charts with ludicrously high SRH values, so a raging squall line is very likely at the very least. Another bugaboo for chasers are the insane storm motions, 60-70 mph. If I were local it would be worth a shot but there will be much better situations down the road.

More of a lucky intercept setup than trying to follow any cells. 

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Quincy

Quincy

Posted
Posted

Have had some time to take a deeper look at the setup. Seems like damaging winds will be the main threat and despite substantial surface-based convective inhibition, QLCS spin ups seem inevitable. 

100 knot 0-6km shear? 75 knot LLJ? 500mb jet streak of 125 knots? 

Pretty wacky wind fields, bordering on historic. I think it leads to complex storm modes with embedded, hybrid supercells possible.

Not favorable for storm chasing, but favorable to produce damage. Whether it’s 70 mph straight line winds or brief tornadoes, it almost doesn’t make a difference with it happening at night. Hopefully the threat wanes before reaching the more populated areas along I-44 and I-35 in Oklahoma. 

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weatherextreme

weatherextreme

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, Quincy said:

Have had some time to take a deeper look at the setup. Seems like damaging winds will be the main threat and despite substantial surface-based convective inhibition, QLCS spin ups seem inevitable. 

100 knot 0-6km shear? 75 knot LLJ? 500mb jet streak of 125 knots? 

Pretty wacky wind fields, bordering on historic. I think it leads to complex storm modes with embedded, hybrid supercells possible.

Not favorable for storm chasing, but favorable to produce damage. Whether it’s 70 mph straight line winds or brief tornadoes, it almost doesn’t make a difference with it happening at night. Hopefully the threat wanes before reaching the more populated areas along I-44 and I-35 in Oklahoma. 

Is there a possibility where this changes and we see a high risk issued? If I remember correct there would only need to be a 10% hatched for tornadoes and or hail for this to go high risk?

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Radtechwxman

Radtechwxman

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, weatherextreme said:

Is there a possibility where this changes and we see a high risk issued? If I remember correct there would only need to be a 10% hatched for tornadoes and or hail for this to go high risk?

Next closest thing to make it go high would be a 60 hatched for wind. 10 hatched tornadoes is only enhanced worthy. No hail probability makes a risk go high. Leitman is doing the outlook tonight and I don't forsee her going high. I can see the moderate risk expanding. IMO we need better instability for a high risk for wind. The wind fields are there for a major event but there are some concerns with possible inversion and whether moisture and therefore instability will be sufficient. Will be a lot of nowcasting. 

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WhirlingWx

WhirlingWx

Posted
Posted

Some pretty serious wording on the most recent SPC outlook 

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1029 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

   Valid 261630Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ON
   WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A derecho is forecast with widespread damaging winds and embedded
   swaths of significant severe gusts from 80-110 mph, centered on
   parts of Oklahoma this evening into tonight. Embedded tornadoes are
   anticipated as well, with the greatest potential for strong
   (EF2-EF3) tornadoes across southwest Oklahoma this evening.

   ...Southern Great Plains to the Mid-MS Valley...
   Just-in-time moisture return from the western Gulf is still
   anticipated ahead of a powerful shortwave trough ejecting from the
   Southwest to the Lower MO Valley. 60+ F surface dew points remain
   confined from the Piney Woods of east TX to the Concho Valley and
   Edwards Plateau of west TX as of 16Z. Guidance continues to differ
   with the northern extent of this richer moisture by evening in KS/OK
   beneath a stout elevated mixed layer. Widespread cloudiness is also
   evident over much of the southern Great Plains, although clearing
   should occur from west to east across the High Plains. The net
   result should be a narrow plume of surface-based instability along
   the dryline from southwest KS to west TX between 21-00Z. 

   Scattered convection will break out after 21Z along the dryline and
   become supercellular towards 00Z given very favorably enlarged low
   to mid-level hodographs. Further moistening into the evening should
   result in the most favorable potential for supercell tornadoes in
   southwest OK between 00-03Z, in addition to very large hail.
   Convection will likely grow quickly upscale into a solid QLCS,
   accelerating east-northeast with embedded supercells and
   mesovortices. Extreme low-level shear profiles in conjunction with
   strengthening of 700-mb winds to around 90 kts behind the line
   should result in widespread severe wind gusts. Embedded swaths of
   80-110 mph winds both straightline and rotating are likely, with
   stronger speeds into the EF2 range possible, until the QLCS outpaces
   the richer moisture in the OK/KS/MO border area overnight. Scattered
   damaging winds from strong to severe gusts may linger through the
   early morning across MO towards the Mid-MS Valley, despite little to
   no buoyancy, given the intense low-level wind fields.

   ..Grams/Wendt.. 02/26/2023
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Chinook

Chinook

Posted
Posted

This tornado-warned storm is northwest of Dodge City and is on the edge of the CAPE.  It's just so unusual to see severe weather so far west

Quote

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CST FOR
NORTHEASTERN FINNEY COUNTY...
          
At 522 PM CST, a confirmed tornado was located 9 miles west of
Kalvesta, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and ping pong ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

 

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