El Nino 2023-2024

[jbenedet]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This makes zero sense.

The convective forcing pattern has been fairly similar to years such as 1965, 1986 and 2009, which also had less pronounced Pacific dipoles and the eastern US did just fine in the snow department.

Good luck with this. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Good luck with this. 

 

Yea, God bless, chief.

[michsnowfreak]

29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This makes zero sense.

The convective forcing pattern has been fairly similar to years such as 1965, 1986 (also developed late) and 2009, which also had less pronounced Pacific dipoles and the eastern US did just fine in the snowfall department.

I have to agree regarding november especially. Each winter has its own mind and no two are exactly alike, but I under no scenario can I see November's snow and cold, or lack thereof, as having any correlation to the coming winter.

[jbenedet]

22 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I have to agree regarding november especially. Each winter has its own mind and no two are exactly alike, but I under no scenario can I see November's snow and cold, or lack thereof, as having any correlation to the coming winter.

Fortune tellers, the lot.

Not at all what I'm saying. Not looking at correlations. It is that, IF we had some above average snow accums under our belt already across the CONUS, probabilistically, you "cold and snowier guys" would have something to show for the "uncoupled Nino" conditions, and your seasonal forecasts closer to verifying.

Now we move into met winter and sig El Nino conditions await.  

 

[Terpeast]

16 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Fortune tellers, the lot.

Not at all what I'm saying. Not looking at correlations. It is that, IF we had some above average snow accums under our belt already across the CONUS, probabilistically, you "cold and snowier guys" would have something to show for the "uncoupled Nino" conditions, and your seasonal forecasts closer to verifying.

Now we move into met winter and sig El Nino conditions await.  

 

Let me ask you this.

are you saying that the ocean-atmosphere being uncoupled causes the El Nino to become stronger? 

This is where you lost me when I’m trying to follow your reasoning. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Fortune tellers, the lot.

Not at all what I'm saying. Not looking at correlations. It is that, IF we had some above average snow accums under our belt already across the CONUS, probabilistically, you "cold and snowier guys" would have something to show for the "uncoupled Nino" conditions, and your seasonal forecasts closer to verifying.

Now we move into met winter and sig El Nino conditions await.  

 

It just snowed over interior SNE last week and ski season is underway. You do have a firm grasp of coastal plane climo, correct? Its still November...

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We didn't need the overwhelming canonical response that produced the powerful Pac jet that eviscerated the entire month of December. I'm sorry, I just do not agree with you. 

We'll see how it plays out...I am not concerned about the winter being dominated by Maritime forcing.....during thaw periods, I can see some phase 6...sure.

Luckily, the VP anomaly forecast into December near the dateline doesn’t look as extreme as in 2015. Same goes for the RMM response this month in 4-6 which looks less amplified. So not seeing any indication yet of that epic standing wave which developed. But even 25% to 50% of that warming would still be a warmer than normal pattern for us in December. As for later in the season, we’ll just have to wait and see how it plays out. Would like to see enough El Niño influence Jan 15th to February 28th to minimize any potential for MJO 4-6 or -PDO negative interference. I only mention that since there has never been an El Niño before with such an extensive +30C warm pool back to the Maritime Continent. In the old days El Niños had much cooler SSTs in the WPAC this time of year than we are seeing now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Luckily, the VP anomaly forecast into December near the dateline doesn’t look as extreme as in 2015. Same goes for the RMM response this month in 4-6 which looks less amplified. So not seeing any indication yet of that epic standing wave which developed. But even 25% to 50% of that warming would still be a warmer than normal pattern for us in December. As for later in the season, we’ll just have to wait and see how it plays out. Would like to see enough El Niño influence Jan 15th to February 28th to minimize any potential for MJO 4-6 or -PDO negative interference. I only mention that since there has never been an El Niño before with such an extensive +30C warm pool back to the Maritime Continent. In the old days El Niños had much cooler SSTs in the WPAC this time of year than we are seeing now.

Okay, sure. I agree....there is a reason why even Modoki el Nino events are often fairly mild in December. All I am saying is that I do not foresee prohibitive warmth for the month of December in the aggregate.

[GaWx]

43 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You mean rose?

No, dropped a little from +1.98 to +1.97. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

No, dropped a little from +1.98 to +1.97. 

Oh, okay...you originally had from 1.97 to 1.98.

NP.

[stadiumwave]

2 hours ago, jbenedet said:

Still not following the logic here. Seeing a weak El Niño atmospheric response to date has allowed El Niño conditions to intensify, and also (obviously) means it just shows up at a later winter date.

Unless we capitalized on a snowier than normal November (did not) and December (remains to be seen)—this is a better argument for those calling for warmer/less snowy winter in the CONUS. 

I'm having trouble following your argument as well. A warm El Nino NOV does not indicate a warm winter. 

Here's NOV 2009

 

2023

[snowman19]

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

I'm having trouble following your argument as well. A warm El Nino NOV does not indicate a warm winter. 

Here's NOV 2009

 

2023

No need to bore him because I'm sure he knows that cold winter time MJO phases are warm in the fall.

[snowman19]

Looks like one more month to go of El Niño strengthening, big WWB event next month, then it starts to decay come January. Not unexpected:

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

MEI should have a good jump this month.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think the first nice winter period for the east will coincide with that final el Nino flex later in December, as the MJO constructively interferes with its development while in phases 8, 1 and 2.

[GaWx]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

MEI should have a good jump this month.

 Of course, the sweet spot will vary depending on the region. I already analyzed the MEI for the SE US including TN: the 10 coldest El Niño winters back to 1951-2 were 1957-8, 1963-4, 1965-6, 1968-9, 1969-70, 1976-7, 1977-8, 2002-3, 2009-10, and 2014-5. Per Webb’s table these were the rounded DJ MEIs:

+1.5, +0.9, +1.3, +1.2, +0.8, +0.8, +0.7, +1.0, +1.1, and +0.5.

 So, range of +0.5 to +1.5 for the DJ MEI with a mean of +0.95 and a median of +0.95. So, DJ MEI sweet spot near +1.0 for the 10 coldest in the SE.

 The 6 coldest were 1957-8, 1963-4, 1969-70, 1976-7, 1977-8, and 2009-10.

 DJ MEIs for these 6: +1.5, +0.9, +0.8, +0.8, +0.7, and +1.1. So, range of +0.7 to +1.5 with mean of +1.0 and median of +0.85.

 So, I’ll be rooting for a significant rise in the next three bimonths from SO’s 0.26. I’d like to see a rise of +0.2+ back to +0.5+ in ON.

 Was 2023’s drop of 0.33 from AS to SO the largest back to 1948 for El Nino? Actually, no as 1986 dropped slightly more (0.40) before it rebounded 0.50 from SO to ND, which I’d love to see.

 Webb’s 1948-2019 MEI:

 https://www.webberweather.com/multivariate-enso-index.html

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Of course, the sweet spot will vary depending on the region. I already analyzed the MEI For the SE US including TN: the 10 coldest El Niño winters back to 1951-2 were 1957-8, 1963-4, 1965-6, 1968-9, 1969-70, 1976-7, 1977-8, 2002-3, 2009-10, and 2014-5. Per Webb’s table these were the rounded DJ MEIs:

+1.5, +0.9, +1.3, +1.2, +0.8, +0.8, +0.7, +1.0, +1.1, and +0.5.

 So, range of +0.5 to +1.5 for the DJ MEI with a mean of +0.95 and a median of +0.95. So, sweet spot near +1.0 for the 10 coldest in the SE.

 The 6 coldest were 1957-8, 1963-4, 1969-70, 1976-7, 1977-8, and 2009-10.

 DJ MEIs for these 6: +1.5, +0.9, +0.8, +0.8, +0.7, and +1.1. So, range of +0.7 to +1.5 with mean of +1.0 and median of +0.85.

 So, I’ll be rooting for a significant rise in the next two bimonths from SO’s 0.26. I’d like to see a rise of +0.2+ back to +0.5+ in ON.

 Was 2023’s drop of 0.33 from AS to SO the largest back to 1948 for El Nino? Actually, no as 1986 dropped slightly more (0.40) before it rebounded 0.50 from SO to ND, which I’d love to see.

 Webb’s 1948-2019 MEI:

 https://www.webberweather.com/multivariate-enso-index.html

My guess is like .6 to .7 for next update and probably peaking at like 1.1 to 1.2

[snowman19]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the first nice winter period for the east will coincide with that final el Nino flex later in December, as the MJO constructively interferes with its development while in phases 8, 1 and 2.

The final “push”/strengthening next month is the one that gets it to a trimonthly super ONI IMO. I’ve a been thinking a late December/early January peak since October 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The final “push”/strengthening next month is the one that gets it to a trimonthly super ONI IMO. I’ve a been thinking a late December/early January peak since October 

Yea, I still don't think it makes it, but it shouldn't really matter...we aren't far apart.

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, jbenedet said:

Fortune tellers, the lot.

Not at all what I'm saying. Not looking at correlations. It is that, IF we had some above average snow accums under our belt already across the CONUS, probabilistically, you "cold and snowier guys" would have something to show for the "uncoupled Nino" conditions, and your seasonal forecasts closer to verifying.

Now we move into met winter and sig El Nino conditions await.  

 

I don't make forecasts, I just read others lol. I'm certainly a cold snow guy if you're talking about what I like, but I don't forecast. I have learned over the years though that many (not all) forecasts contain forecaster bias (be it warm or cold). This is not even a knock on the forecaster as much as it is acknowledging how full of unknowns the weather is.

Actually I've given some guys in a local weather chat hell in past years because due to a few cold, snowy Novembers being followed by warm Decembers, they started acting like November cold/snow is a bad omen.

Ironically woke up to a beautiful wintry morning here with fresh snow and temps in the teens. This November will finish with both temps and snowfall near avg here.

 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My guess is like .6 to .7 for next update and probably peaking at like 1.1 to 1.2

 If your educated guess were to verify and if especially the DJ MEI were to be ~+1.1 to +1.2, that would be just about as good a scenario as one should want to see as regards cold winter chances for the bulk of the E US based on past MEIs.

 The ERSST Nino 3.4 SSTa is going to come in ~+1.83 for ON vs +1.63 in SO. So, a rise of 0.2. That should support an MEI rise. But if the SO SOI goes directly into the SO MEI calc, it in isolation would not be supportive of an MEI rise because in ON it is aiming for ~-7.5 vs SO’s ~-10. Hopefully, it wouldn’t have much impact as the SOI rise is small.

[michsnowfreak]

59 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

I'm having trouble following your argument as well. A warm El Nino NOV does not indicate a warm winter. 

Here's NOV 2009

 

2023

And vice versa. Look at November 1997.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, stadiumwave said:

I'm having trouble following your argument as well. A warm El Nino NOV does not indicate a warm winter. 

Here's NOV 2009

I did find a relationship between fall (SON) temperature departures and winter CONUS departures. While this pattern just emerged in 2002, it has worked out each El Niño year since then.Very similar temperature departure patterns in the fall to winter. They fell into 3 groups. The first is the colder falls which preceded the colder winters. Next was the colder falls to the West and warmer along East Coast which repeated during the winter. The final group was the warmer falls across the the entire CONUS and the warmer winters across the Northern tier to Northeast. This fall has matched the warmer years of 2004 and 2015. But luckily, we didn’t reach the magnitude of the fall 2015 warmth. That would be a tough act to follow anyway. So somewhere in between 04-05 and 15-16 for fall departures. This would mean above average temperatures this winter near upper Midwest and Great Lakes to Northeast.

 

 

[GaWx]

 Today’s Euro Weeklies:

1. H5:

 Best run yet in the E US for the first week of Jan, especially as regards H5 with a textbook +PNA/Aleutian Low (most of E US BN at 2m):

2. SPV:

 Weakest run yet for late Dec/early Jan with a whopping ~35% of members showing a major SSW (vs prior highest of ~30% yesterday) and ~18% of members going below -10 m/s (vs prior highest of ~12% both yesterday and one from last week), indicative of a notable major SSW. These are quite high %s for something showing up 3.5-6.5 weeks away! 35% is much above the longterm chance of 20-25% for a major SSW occuring by Jan 13:

[snowman19]

@GaWx This is a testament to just how strong this event is:
 

[stadiumwave]

51 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I did find a relationship between fall (SON) temperature departures and winter CONUS departures. While this pattern just emerged in 2002, it has worked out each El Niño year since then.Very similar temperature departure patterns in the fall to winter. They fell into 3 groups. The first is the colder falls which preceded the colder winters. Next was the colder falls to the West and warmer along East Coast which repeated during the winter. The final group was the warmer falls across the the entire CONUS and the warmer winters across the Northern tier to Northeast. This fall has matched the warmer years of 2004 and 2015. But luckily, we didn’t reach the magnitude of the fall 2015 warmth. That would be a tough act to follow anyway. So somewhere in between 04-05 and 15-16 for fall departures. This would mean above average temperatures this winter near upper Midwest and Great Lakes to Northeast.

 

 

 

I have to look into that myself. If that were the case & it were that simple, winter forecasting be a breeze. As bad as winter forecasting is every year by great MERS, I highly doubt this correlation stands. 

 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I did find a relationship between fall (SON) temperature departures and winter CONUS departures. While this pattern just emerged in 2002, it has worked out each El Niño year since then.Very similar temperature departure patterns in the fall to winter. They fell into 3 groups. The first is the colder falls which preceded the colder winters. Next was the colder falls to the West and warmer along East Coast which repeated during the winter. The final group was the warmer falls across the the entire CONUS and the warmer winters across the Northern tier to Northeast. This fall has matched the warmer years of 2004 and 2015. But luckily, we didn’t reach the magnitude of the fall 2015 warmth. That would be a tough act to follow anyway. So somewhere in between 04-05 and 15-16 for fall departures. This would mean above average temperatures this winter near upper Midwest and Great Lakes to Northeast.

 

 

I just ran the numbers for DTW, not the CONUS. But found no correlation locally whatsoever. 

2002 S(+) O(-) N(-)...avg -
2004 S(+) O(+) N(+)...avg +
2006 S(-) O(-) N (+)...avg -
2009 S(+) O(-) N(+)...avg +
2014 S(-) O(-) N(-)...avg -
2015 S(+) O(+) N(+)...avg +
2018 S(+) O(-) N(-)...avg -
2023 S(+) O(+) N(-)...avg +

+ falls
2004-05 D(-) J(-) F(-)
2009-10 D(-) J(-) F(-)
2015-16 D(+) J(+) F(+)
2023-24?

- falls
2002-03 D(-) J(-) F(-)...avg -
2006-07 D(+) J(+) F (-)...avg +
2014-15 D(+) J(-) F(-)...avg -
2018-19 D(+) J(-) F(+)...avg +

 

Since 2002, 4 falls featured a colder than average temperature departure, and the following winters were split, 2 mild, 2 cold. The 3 Falls prior to this year that featured a warmer than average departure produced 2 cold winters and 1 mild winter. 

 

Also, the months were all over the place in terms of which ones were warmer and which were colder than average.

 

FWIW I found that the closest fall temperature average to 2023 was 2009. Another interesting thing I noticed is that 2023 was the only year of all 8 nino Falls since 2002 where no month had a notable departure. S (+0.8) O (+1.5) N (-0.4 est)

[stadiumwave]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

I did find a relationship between fall (SON) temperature departures and winter CONUS departures. While this pattern just emerged in 2002, it has worked out each El Niño year since then.Very similar temperature departure patterns in the fall to winter. They fell into 3 groups. The first is the colder falls which preceded the colder winters. Next was the colder falls to the West and warmer along East Coast which repeated during the winter. The final group was the warmer falls across the the entire CONUS and the warmer winters across the Northern tier to Northeast. This fall has matched the warmer years of 2004 and 2015. But luckily, we didn’t reach the magnitude of the fall 2015 warmth. That would be a tough act to follow anyway. So somewhere in between 04-05 and 15-16 for fall departures. This would mean above average temperatures this winter near upper Midwest and Great Lakes to Northeast.

 

 

 

So 8 El Ninos. Only 3 were on the colder side in the period you mentioned...since 2002.

2002-03, 2009-10, 2014-15

 

#1 The sample size is too small. And periods before that it certainly was not true. Some cold El Nino winters had mostly warmer than average falls. With that being the case, only 3 cold El Nino winters in the period you mention is not enough to draw a predictive correlation. 

#2 The correlation does not workout the way you said. 

On the cold years:

2002-2003

 

2009-10

 

2014-15

That does not work out in such a way, that one can look at that & predict. 2014-15 was the closest.

Also, one of the years had a cold fall for most of CONUS & a mostly warm winter:

2006-07

 

So, the coldest fall nationwide of the 4 had the warmest winter of the 4. 

 

#3 The correlation is certainly not true when considering different parts of our large CONUS.

 

BOTTOM LINE:

We have to be careful that our subjective bias' to prove a point, does not lead us to see what we want to see. I'm not 100% accusing you of that because you're a great poster, but we certainly all have to be careful. 

When I look trough all the El Nino years we have good data on, the biggest take away is that on average most El Nino falls are cooler regardless of winter. And some warm falls have had really cold winters. Recent history is a mix. 

[bluewave]

27 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

I have to look into that myself. If that were the case & it were that simple, winter forecasting be a breeze. As bad as winter forecasting is every year by great MERS, I highly doubt this correlation stands. 

 

The correlation has worked out for every El Niño since 02-03. But for some reason, it didn’t really exist before that. The 3 coldest El Niño falls into the Plains and Great Lakes in 02, 09, and 14 expanded a few degrees eastward for the winter. Then the colder in Plains and warmer in the East El Niño falls of 06 and 18 repeated for the winter. I chalk this up to our new era of stuck and stagnant weather patterns. So a fall pattern can linger in some fashion into the winter.