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Pittsburgh, PA/Western PA Fall/Winter Discussion 2022-23


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3 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

I remember those days back on EasternUS Wx. You did have to know where peoples location was to interpret their posts. Getting Euro data was like finding the holy grail and you always had someone trying to ask an imby question thinly veiled as something else lol. Always the love / hate on again off again relationship with DT. 

Sometimes I still follow along the MA threat threads as it still has a light version of that feel but you do lose that interaction with quality posters from other regions now and you can be met with some serious outsider hostility which sucks. 

 

You’d get put in time aht if you cluttered the model thread with asking how much for your town - lol. 

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50 minutes ago, TimB said:

I know it’s the NAM at range, but the first look at the back end snow potential on the NAM is, well… not good.

It's really paltry all around, storm doesn't look nearly as intense. Wouldn't that be something if we go full circle back to this just being a glorified frontal passage for everyone?

Personally I'd prefer the bomb dynamic option just for something interesting to track even if our area misses most of the snow.

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11 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

SWPA has always lacked a red tagger for the most part, at least one officially declared. We had one for a couple years with handle of NineInchNails but I think he took a Met job in TX and slowly faded away. Lots of intelligent and knowledgeable folks though through the years and our fair share of screw balls too. :lol:

Back to the good ole “wright weather” days.

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39 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

It's really paltry all around, storm doesn't look nearly as intense. Wouldn't that be something if we go full circle back to this just being a glorified frontal passage for everyone?

Personally I'd prefer the bomb dynamic option just for something interesting to track even if our area misses most of the snow.

The weather fanatic in me says there’s plenty to watch here, even if we don’t get much if any snow. I’m coming around to the idea that this is going to be a fun little blast of winter no matter how much or little white stuff we get.

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Everything has trended more south east with the storm. Gfs still looks good for some snow but wow I can't believe this thing just isn't locked in yet. I'll laugh if the Euro jackpots Cincy somehow tonight. The Lakes subforum will go crazy. This hobby can be crazy sometimes.

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7 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Hmm...this isn't over.

 

When is it ever over?  These things have shifted 100+ miles in 24 hours before.  I cant remember the storm but one of the storms last year was projected to destroy the DC area with snow up until 24 hours out and then they got all rain and we got snow.  

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6 minutes ago, Ecanem said:

 

When is it ever over?  These things have shifted 100+ miles in 24 hours before.  I cant remember the storm but one of the storms last year was projected to destroy the DC area with snow up until 24 hours out and then they got all rain and we got snow.  

Yeah, GFS isn't messing around.  Still putting out around 10" for us.  That is probably high, but the potential must be there. 

 

Wonder when NWS will start putting out totals?  Probably not until late tomorrow at earliest is my guess.

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1 minute ago, Ahoff said:

Yeah, GFS isn't messing around.  Still putting out around 10" for us.  That is probably high, but the potential must be there. 

 

Wonder when NWS will start putting out totals?  Probably not until late tomorrow at earliest is my guess.

Maybe the GFS is seeing a jet streak to enhance totals, along with the higher ratios ?

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22 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Yeah, GFS isn't messing around.  Still putting out around 10" for us.  That is probably high, but the potential must be there. 

 

Wonder when NWS will start putting out totals?  Probably not until late tomorrow at earliest is my guess.

I think they use a 72 hour rule so we may have their first forecast later today.

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How well do we think the Euro is actually handling total snowfall?  It's horrible here, but looking at the wide view Chicago and North Indiana seem to be in a great spot for snow, yet the Euro 6z only dropped around 3-4" on those areas.  That just doesn't seem right with a fairly strong storm just off to their east.

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4 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Looks like based on TWC and Accuweather our first totals forecasts will be for 1-3".  Hopefully that can increase as we get closer.

Wouldn’t be surprised if the NWS issued an advisory if they end up agreeing with the 1-3”, given the additional impacts and the fact that it’s happening on a busy travel day.

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1 minute ago, olafminesaw said:

Could have a band of heavy precip that cools the column and leads to a quicker changeover. Could drop a couple inches of snow in an hour, depending on the timing of the cold with the precip.

download (4).png

Travel Friday might be a nightmare if this happens but I'm all for it.

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47 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

How well do we think the Euro is actually handling total snowfall?  It's horrible here, but looking at the wide view Chicago and North Indiana seem to be in a great spot for snow, yet the Euro 6z only dropped around 3-4" on those areas.  That just doesn't seem right with a fairly strong storm just off to their east.

I'm not sure, but the Euro and NAM want nothing to do with those bigger totals the GFS is showing. Maybe its just pessimism but I'd hedge towards lower amounts like 1-3 / 2-4 until we get closer especially since the overall evolution is still changing pretty dramatically. I'm fairly certain though that this won't trend far enough east to keep us out of the warm sector but it may be enough to ruin any shot at decent back end snow. Part of the east trend is the storm is taking longer to organize and is weaker, maybe that helps blunt some of the WAA ahead of it and we can cool faster. I honestly don't know what solution to root for at this point lol

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16 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

I'm not sure, but the Euro and NAM want nothing to do with those bigger totals the GFS is showing. Maybe its just pessimism but I'd hedge towards lower amounts like 1-3 / 2-4 until we get closer especially since the overall evolution is still changing pretty dramatically. I'm fairly certain though that this won't trend far enough east to keep us out of the warm sector but it may be enough to ruin any shot at decent back end snow. Part of the east trend is the storm is taking longer to organize and is weaker, maybe that helps blunt some of the WAA ahead of it and we can cool faster. I honestly don't know what solution to root for at this point lol

Yeah I'm torn on this. Obviously we aren't gonna get a strong apps runner with this. 

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