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2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread


BlueRidgeFolklore
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I’ll get toasted and roasted in the other thread if I say this, so I’ll say it here: the gfs is on an island but I couldn’t tell you the last time I saw the Euro have a correct solution at day 7 either. Last January’s storm, the gfs was completely on an island. 
I'm not sure how many times the Euro has to bury waves out west incorrectly before people realize it's really not that great at it, especially day 5-7.

I swear 75% of the other thread just wants something negative to latch onto. I've peeked in there a couple times, that kind of roller coaster emotion would not be good for my health lol

Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

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2 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

I’ll get toasted and roasted in the other thread if I say this, so I’ll say it here: the gfs is on an island but I couldn’t tell you the last time I saw the Euro have a correct solution at day 7 either. Last January’s storm, the gfs was completely on an island. 

No roasting here. We are literally 7 days out in an anomalous pattern change and blocking.  People talk about the gfs being erratic.... Um the Euro went from showing snow in the south to a damn cutter so tell me which model is erratic.... I don't really believe both currently. 

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1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

No roasting here. We are literally 7 days out in an anomalous pattern change and blocking.  People talk about the gfs being erratic.... Um the Euro went from showing snow in the south to a damn cutter so tell me which model is erratic.... I don't really believe both currently. 

Another angle of that to consider: the GFS and a vast majority of its ensembles have honed in on a similar setup for days and continue to do so. It’s the only one without the major swings you described. Consistency matters.

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4 hours ago, wncsnow said:

I don't think its the final solution either but it would sure be depressing. 1-2 inches of rain then cold and dry with no snow before it starts moderating again

That was the trademark of the middle 1970's Nina's. Cutter after cutter, rain ending as flurries the cold/dry. Rinse and repeat. Hated those Winter's. You guys on the eastern slopes got lucky a couple times with cad and a coastal that was just far enough west in the '74-75 Nina. 

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3 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Absolutely beautiful map right there. Hell not a bad mean across the state at all.

Let's just hope the Ensembles turn out to be the winner. Tonight's 0z runs should show whether or not the trend is for a cutter. Really need that TPV to assert itself under that block to stave that off. The Blizzard that hammered the Dakota's moved toward the block before stalling. You'd think it would have began weakening under the duress and start sliding SE. 

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47 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Even if it trends towards 2 inches of rain it just feels so dang good to be tracking something - anything. 

 

Just wish some others did play by play. I  know enough to do some but there are some weenies trying to read these runs and it confuses everyone.  

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Through 126 looks like the West/Amped trend has stopped for now. Vort very slightly east and weaker. TPV lobe in SE Canada is stronger and may help with confluence, but it's alignment and placement is different from previous runs. We'll see where this goes. Still very different from Euro solution.

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