Winter 2022-23

[snowman19]

 

[WxUSAF]

Slight QBO disruption by Hunga Tonga.

 

[snowman19]

7 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Slight QBO disruption by Hunga Tonga.

 

More and more evidence is mounting for a very positive AO winter. This eruption/historic ejection of water vapor is just going to serve to significantly cool all levels of the stratosphere and in turn strengthen the SPV

[40/70 Benchmark]

While I don't think its going to be a banner year, nothing I see implies misery for the Mid Atlantic in terms of snowfall, either. Regardless of what the arctic domain does, the Pacific is going to provide some windows of opportunity.

I mean, its within the realm of plausibility, but I wouldn't go plunging into the Potomac quite yet...its not awful.

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I just realized that we have endured 9 consecutive +NAO months of February....last negative NAO Feb was 2013. 

Jesus...hell of a way to run peak climo snow period...similar to the 1980s.

We had 8 consecutive from 1988-1995....obviously the hammer dropped in 1996.

March would have the same streak going, believe it or not, if were not for 2018....for all of the talk about negative NAO waiting for March.

January 2021 ended a streak of 10 consecutive +NAO months of January...2011 had been the last one.

December 2020 ended a streak of 10 consecutive +NAO months of December dating back to December 2010.

Unless this is connected to climate change in some way, you have to figure that the other shoe is about to drop.

 

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

It could very well be AGW related. So far, everything (solar/geomag, Atlantic SSTs, QBO progression, Nina structure) is pointing to another +NAO winter. Maybe we see some sort of flip next winter? Overall, 1979-1993 had an amazingly persistent +NAO

[40/70 Benchmark]

30 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It could very well be AGW related. So far, everything (solar/geomag, Atlantic SSTs, QBO progression, Nina structure) is pointing to another +NAO winter. Maybe we see some sort of flip next winter? Overall, 1979-1993 had an amazingly persistent +NAO

How did I know you would take that bait.

Btw, this la nina is not a modoki......its basin wide with a slight western tilt. While that still favors a +NAO overall, there is more variance with that dataset.

17AUG2022    1.2 20.1-0.8    3 24.3-0.8     3.4 25.7-1.2    4 27.7-1.0

[snowman19]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

How did I know you would take that bait.

Btw, this la nina is not a modoki......its basin wide with a slight western tilt. While that still favors a +NAO overall, there is more variance with that dataset.

17AUG2022    1.2 20.1-0.8    3 24.3-0.8     3.4 25.7-1.2    4 27.7-1.0

Even if you remove the Niña, the other factors are still no good. We have to see where we are at come November. I’d be interested to see what Isotherm says

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, snowman19 said:

Even if you remove the Niña, the other factors are still no good. We have to see where we are at come November. I’d be interested to see what Isotherm says

Overall, I agree on +NAO, but I'm not convinced of a 1988-1989 type death trap of a PV.

 @Isothermturned into a lurker last season, unfortunately....still lurks, but doesn't respond to direct inquiries anymore.

[StormchaserChuck!]

My NAO predictor with 0.54 SD (DJFM NAO) has gone severely positive. 

 

[StormchaserChuck!]

I think the -NAO tendency (under 10mb strong PV, the trend, etc) will default/displace to -EPO. Alaska High, -EPO. 

Give us a -PNA In jan and Feb and a pinch-off -EPO

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Overall, I agree on +NAO, but I'm not convinced of a 1988-1989 type death trap of a PV.

 @Isothermturned into a lurker last season, unfortunately....still lurks, but doesn't respond to direct inquiries anymore.

Wish he would post.  I don't he updated his webpage either.  Hope all is ok with him.

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

My NAO predictor with 0.54 SD (DJFM NAO) has gone severely positive. 

 

No semblance of a tripole nor has there been

[Prestige Worldwide]

Strengthening La Niña 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

Strengthening La Niña 

If La nina peaks with a strong ONI, I'll change my screen name to BenKnolls Thong.

Not happening.

[snowman19]

45 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If La nina peaks with a strong ONI, I'll change my screen name to BenKnolls Thong.

Not happening.

I doubt a strong ONI peak too but I think a high-end moderate/borderline strong peak is absolutely possible over the next 4 months given the current trends 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

54 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I doubt a strong ONI peak too but I think a high-end moderate/borderline strong peak is absolutely possible over the next 4 months given the current trends 

 

I don't think so.

1.1..MAYBE 1.2, tops.

[40/70 Benchmark]

This is the classic "everyone get carried away with ENSO while Twitter fans the flames" stage of the pre season...like clockwork.

[raindancewx]

The volcano that erupted earlier this year was an underwater event. So much of the emission material into the sky is water vapor. That's a known green house gas, with relatively little S04 emitted compared to similar sized eruptions like Pinatubo.

The paper I linked in the ENSO thread on volcanic impacts to hurricane activity says that typically a Southern Hemisphere volcano moves the location of the Inter-Tropical-Convergence-Zone (ITCZ) and disrupts/enhances hurricane formation/intensity in some areas in both hemispheres.

https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1900777116

In summary, tropical eruptions lead to a consistent decrease in environmental variables associated with the number and intensity of tropical cyclones over Southeast Asia, northwestern and northeastern Australia regardless of whether the eruption occurs in the NH or SH. In the other regions, TrNH and TrSH eruptions lead instead to opposing effects. In particular, the variables associated with number and intensity of TCs decrease in the North Atlantic after TrNH and increase following TrSH eruptions.

But that paper assumes high aerosol emission - I've been working on the assumption that the water vapor delivered high up into the sky had the equivalent of an anti-aerosol outcome. In other words, normally a volcano in the Southern Hemisphere would enhance N-Hemisphere ACE/hurricane activity with the aerosols. But this volcano did the opposite. The "pseudo" El Nino response everyone is bitching about I think is actually the extra forcing from the heat added to the system by the volcano.

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/jpl/tonga-eruption-blasted-unprecedented-amount-of-water-into-stratosphere

In the study, published in Geophysical Research Letters, Millán and his colleagues estimate that the Tonga eruption sent around 146 teragrams (1 teragram equals a trillion grams) of water vapor into Earth’s stratosphere – equal to 10% of the water already present in that atmospheric layer. That’s nearly four times the amount of water vapor that scientists estimate the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines lofted into the stratosphere.

The extra water vapor / sudden forcing via extra heat is also consistent with the wildness of the Summer - drought/heat in Europe, China, the Central US, and then very active/wet monsoons in other places. I have a method for dealing with volcanic effects in my outlook, but this will be the first year I've had to test it. Should be a weird winter. There are a lot of weird things that happen after big volcanic eruptions.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

The volcano that erupted earlier this year was an underwater event. So much of the emission material into the sky is water vapor. That's a known green house gas, with relatively little S04 emitted compared to similar sized eruptions like Pinatubo.

The paper I linked in the ENSO thread on volcanic impacts to hurricane activity says that typically a Southern Hemisphere volcano moves the location of the Inter-Tropical-Convergence-Zone (ITCZ) and disrupts/enhances hurricane formation/intensity in some areas in both hemispheres.

https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1900777116

In summary, tropical eruptions lead to a consistent decrease in environmental variables associated with the number and intensity of tropical cyclones over Southeast Asia, northwestern and northeastern Australia regardless of whether the eruption occurs in the NH or SH. In the other regions, TrNH and TrSH eruptions lead instead to opposing effects. In particular, the variables associated with number and intensity of TCs decrease in the North Atlantic after TrNH and increase following TrSH eruptions.

But that paper assumes high aerosol emission - I've been working on the assumption that the water vapor delivered high up into the sky had the equivalent of an anti-aerosol outcome. In other words, normally a volcano in the Southern Hemisphere would enhance N-Hemisphere ACE/hurricane activity with the aerosols. But this volcano did the opposite. The "pseudo" El Nino response everyone is bitching about I think is actually the extra forcing from the heat added to the system by the volcano.

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/jpl/tonga-eruption-blasted-unprecedented-amount-of-water-into-stratosphere

In the study, published in Geophysical Research Letters, Millán and his colleagues estimate that the Tonga eruption sent around 146 teragrams (1 teragram equals a trillion grams) of water vapor into Earth’s stratosphere – equal to 10% of the water already present in that atmospheric layer. That’s nearly four times the amount of water vapor that scientists estimate the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines lofted into the stratosphere.

The extra water vapor / sudden forcing via extra heat is also consistent with the wildness of the Summer - drought/heat in Europe, China, the Central US, and then very active/wet monsoons in other places. I have a method for dealing with volcanic effects in my outlook, but this will be the first year I've had to test it. Should be a weird winter. There are a lot of weird things that happen after big volcanic eruptions.

I wonder if that would make the winter act more like an el nino, as well? Pinatubo induced a strong PV due to the release of aerosols IIRC, but I do not know much about this...

[snowman19]

31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wonder if that would make the winter act more like an el nino, as well? Pinatubo induced a strong PV due to the release of aerosols IIRC, but I do not know much about this...

According to this link HM shared, the record amount of water vapor ejected into the stratosphere should cool it and warm the troposphere below: 

Link: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL099381?campaign=woletoc

[raindancewx]

Also, for what it's worth, no hurricane seasons with under 10 ACE total through 8/31 have blown up to hyper activity in at least the last 90 years. So the hurricane season is pretty likely to stay dead if nothing blows up in the next week. A lot of the dead seasons in La Ninas in the 1970s/1980s also followed volcanoes - you had a big eruption in Central America in Fall 1974 I'm pretty sure. The AMO is a bit over-rated as a hurricane indicator since the tropics are always warm, and what you really need is something to screw up pressure patterns.

Statistically, hurricane activity through August v. the total of the season behaves something like ((August ACE) x (1.9)) + (47). So the entire range in 90 years is 0-120 ACE or something if the season stays under 10 ACE through 8/31, centered right around 50 ACE, with like a 90%+ chance of under 100. Super super dead for a La Nina. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

If we have those kind of winds, it's going to be a Strong La Nina pretty quick here. I think things can even out, ACE can rebound to average, and La Nina can neutralize after 3-4 weeks of strengthening. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

If we have those kind of winds, it's going to be a Strong La Nina pretty quick here. I think things can even out, ACE can rebound to average, and La Nina can neutralize after 3-4 weeks of strengthening. 

In the weekly readings, sure.

[StormchaserChuck!]

low ACE/vs ENSO

look at how it starts, over +210dm SD -PNA

Rest of analogs

Jan-Feb +NAO/+EPO/-PNA

 

[snowman19]

9 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Also, for what it's worth, no hurricane seasons with under 10 ACE total through 8/31 have blown up to hyper activity in at least the last 90 years. So the hurricane season is pretty likely to stay dead if nothing blows up in the next week. A lot of the dead seasons in La Ninas in the 1970s/1980s also followed volcanoes - you had a big eruption in Central America in Fall 1974 I'm pretty sure. The AMO is a bit over-rated as a hurricane indicator since the tropics are always warm, and what you really need is something to screw up pressure patterns.

Statistically, hurricane activity through August v. the total of the season behaves something like ((August ACE) x (1.9)) + (47). So the entire range in 90 years is 0-120 ACE or something if the season stays under 10 ACE through 8/31, centered right around 50 ACE, with like a 90%+ chance of under 100. Super super dead for a La Nina. 

How many low Atlantic ACE/La Niña/volcanic years did you find? Also, what was the QBO, IOD, solar and PDO doing in those years? Thank you

[StormchaserChuck!]

We may have a -NAO tendency (despite 4/4 opposite-indicators), and maybe -EPO, switching off between the two a little. +PNA, if we could do it, would be really impressive. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

We may have a -NAO tendency (despite 4/4 opposite-indicators), and maybe -EPO, switching off between the two a little. +PNA, if we could do it, would be really impressive. 

Why do you make a series of posts supporting +NAO/AO/EPO, and then make another post citing the tendency for a -NAO/EPO?

You are difficult to follow sometimes...maybe its me, and I'm missing something.

[StormchaserChuck!]

It seems like we are trending an EC trough this Summer.. 

All the index-measurements are warm/+NAO+AO

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

It seems like we are trending an EC trough this Summer.. 

All the index-measurements are warm/+NAO+AO

Okay, so you mean sensible obs are not consistent with the teleconnection indictors. I think that make sense because I think that atmosphere may start to part ways with la nina a little faster than the ocean does.