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Late May Severe Weather Threats


Quincy
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I'm surprised they didn't upgrade to moderate risk for Monday. They do mention there are a couple of concerns. MPX AFD even mentions moderate possible for today.  

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 Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast from parts of the Upper
   Midwest southward into the central Great Plains on Monday and Monday
   night.  Large to giant hail, 60-80 mph gusts, and several tornadoes
   are probable, including the possibility for a couple of intense
   long-track tornadoes over parts of the Upper Midwest.

   A dynamic late-spring pattern is forecast on Monday into Monday
   night with the possibility of a severe-weather outbreak over parts
   of the Upper Midwest.

   ...Upper Midwest into the central Great Plains...
   A potent mid-level shortwave trough will eject northeastward from
   southeast CO northeastward to northern MN while evolving into a
   mid-level low.  An associated 500 mb speed max will intensify
   during the day with 100 kt southwesterly flow moving from eastern NE
   into southern MN during the afternoon into the early evening.  A
   cyclone will deepen as it moves from northern KS north-northeastward
   into eastern SD by mid evening before occluding.  A dryline will
   extend south-southwestward from the lower to mid MO Valley into
   central KS and near the TX Panhandle/OK border.

   Isolated elevated thunderstorms are possible early Monday morning on
   the nose of a strong LLJ in the SD/NE/IA/MN region.  This activity
   will likely dissipate during the morning as a warm front advances
   northward.  Strong southerly flow will advect richer low-level
   moisture northward into the eastern Dakotas and western MN by
   midday.  Some model guidance indicates storms may develop during the
   morning over parts of central NE as upward vertical motion increases
   with the approaching disturbance.  Have trended westward with
   severe-weather probabilities as a result.  Forecast soundings become
   uncapped by midday into the early afternoon over southeast SD with
   large CAPE (2500 J/kg MLCAPE) and a wind profile strongly supporting
   supercells.  Lowest 100 mb mean mixing ratios 13-14 g/kg in a zone
   where surface pressure falls will maximize northeast of the surface
   low, will combine with enlarging hodographs to favor strong
   supercells.  Large to very large hail is probable along with several
   tornadoes during the afternoon into the early evening.  A couple of
   intense long-track tornadoes are possible if 1) favorable storm mode
   develops and 2) a notable absence of other convection and
   destructive storm-to-storm interactions is limited.  Additional
   storms are likely to develop in an arc from southern MN into IA and
   possibly eastern NE during the late afternoon to early evening.  An
   eventual consolidation of storms and outflow will probably lead to
   the risk for severe gusts to increase during the evening across MN
   as the activity quickly moves north-northeastward.
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Challenging storm chasing today and tomorrow, despite higher than average tornado probabilities. Today looks to be a close call with convective initiation prior to sunset in Nebraska.

Do you drift west and hope for storms coming off the High Plains? Wander north into eastern South Dakota and hope storms can mature, despite weaknesses in the wind fields? Or hang in northeastern Nebraska until time runs out? Definitely reminds me of 6/17/14 in terms of timing. I don’t think storms became established until after 00z. First tornado reports were shortly after 01z.

Tomorrow appears to have three plays:

1. Chase the SPC/parameter space bullseye near the MN/Dakotas border. Race east across MN with tornadic supercells likely, but storm motions will be fast and storms may ultimately form an MCS.

2. Play farther south, near the NE/IA border. Storm motion will be more W to E. Question will be how many sustained cells will persist into Iowa? IA has a bad rap for storm chasing. Seems to bust most of the time, but goes bonkers once in a while.

3. Kansas. The not-so-classic Kansas chase setup. Does a storm or two become established? Could play up near I-70 or even go for a Hail Mary down by the Oklahoma border.

Good luck to all chasers!

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There will be a high significant tornado parameter developing after 22z, toward Duluth. It is likely that several supercells develop in western Minnesota near the low pressure. The storms may develop in a squall line but I expect the shear to he high enough force supercells to occur. The highest dew points and storm relative helicity will in the eastern half of Minnesota.

 

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Yikes

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
929 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

NEC071-089-300300-
/O.CON.KLBF.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220530T0300Z/
Garfield NE-Holt NE-
929 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN
GARFIELD AND SOUTHWESTERN HOLT COUNTIES...

At 929 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 13 miles northeast of Calamus Reservoir State Recreation
Area, or 16 miles north of Burwell, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and grapefruit size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Carson Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4193 9917 4204 9923 4207 9922 4208 9921
      4219 9900 4194 9884
TIME...MOT...LOC 0229Z 247DEG 26KT 4202 9911

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...4.50 IN
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Tornado Warning
SDC079-099-101-302000-
/O.NEW.KFSD.TO.W.0024.220530T1913Z-220530T2000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
213 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022

The National Weather Service in Sioux Falls has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Moody County in east central South Dakota...
  Eastern Lake County in east central South Dakota...
  Northern Minnehaha County in southeastern South Dakota...

* Until 300 PM CDT.

* At 213 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located near Chester, or 12 miles southeast of Madison, moving
  northeast at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Chester around 220 PM CDT.
  Wentworth around 225 PM CDT.
  Baltic around 230 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this tornadic thunderstorm include
Colman, Dell Rapids, Trent, Egan, Flandreau and Ward.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4376 9645 4374 9706 4419 9715 4420 9646
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 247DEG 31KT 4384 9700

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

Weisser
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PDS maybe?  Since the "higher end" wording?

Mesoscale Discussion 0980
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0206 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022

   Areas affected...extreme eastern SD into southern/central MN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 301906Z - 302030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for strong tornadoes and widespread intense
   gusts is increasing across extreme eastern South Dakota into
   southern/central MN. A tornado watch will be needed in the next
   hour.

   DISCUSSION...A surface warm front over southern MN will continue to
   lift northward through the afternoon. Dewpoints will increase into
   the mid/upper 60s as this occurs, resulting in rapid destabilization
   with northward extent over the next few hours. Recent visible
   satellite imagery shows increasing/vertically developing cumulus
   across portions of southern MN to the south of the warm front. A
   recent RAOB near Tyler, MN indicated weakening surface-based and
   MLCIN with very steep midlevel lapse rates in place. Effective shear
   magnitudes greater than 50 kt will support organized supercells,
   while strong forcing may tend to favor bowing segments, and a mixed
   convective mode is possible. Enlarged low-level hodographs evident
   in regional RAOBs/VWPs and forecast soundings show 30-40 kt 0-1 km
   shear amid enhanced low-level vorticity. This will support intense
   rotation with any discrete or line-embedded supercells, and a couple
   of significant tornadoes will be possible into early evening. 

   Hi-res operational CAMs guidance and the experiment Warn-on-Forecast
   ensemble has been persistent in developing at least a couple of
   discrete supercells ahead of linear convection. While convective
   evolution/storm mode remains somewhat unclear, the overall parameter
   space will support storms capable of producing strong tornadoes and
   widespread intense (greater than 75 mph) outflow winds. A higher-end
   tornado watch will likely be needed within the hour.

   ..Leitman/Thompson.. 05/30/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR
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5 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Why have they been so bullish if it looked sketchy? 

Maybe strong embedded tornadoes? I'm not sure why they went 15 percent hatched, but so far there has been at least one embedded tornado doing some damage and has had a tight couplet for a surprisingly long time considering it's embedded in the line. It's also in a radar dead zone so it's hard to know for sure how long it's been in the ground. 

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54 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Why have they been so bullish if it looked sketchy? 

Well, shear/instability are there. The parameter space in Minnesota is high-end with some anomalous values, but that doesn’t mean the setup was going to produce a bunch of discrete supercells. 

I suspect we see some QLCS tornado reports. Kansas is still iffy, but maybe they squeak out a tornado or two around sunset. Even there, storm modes have been mixed. 

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Started the day in Sioux City and made the decision to go south. It was a race against the clock, but I opted to target eastern Kansas. I chased (or attempted to) a couple of semi-discrete supercells in the Flint Hills, but with trees and lack of roads, I bailed south for isolated cells closer to the Oklahoma border. 

Those storms started to fade rather quickly, but I was able to get a couple of photos of the southernmost cell, before calling the chase off. 

 

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Several semi-discrete supercells formed from the Texas panhandle into northern/western Oklahoma and southern Kansas on Tuesday. I had pretty low expectations going into the day, so I’d say the storms outperformed, despite being HP beasts.

 

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